​
Amidst this initiative, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a potential candidate seeking to join the esteemed group. The possible inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the BRICS Bank holds significant implications for both the bank and the kingdom, offering opportunities for enhanced collaboration, increased investment, and regional development. This article explores the motivations behind the NDB's desire for new members and examines the potential benefits and challenges associated with Saudi Arabia's potential entry into the BRICS Bank.
The NDB's pursuit of new members aligns with its objective of fostering global economic cooperation and promoting sustainable development. By welcoming new countries, the bank seeks to expand its reach, leverage diverse expertise, and diversify its investment portfolio. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, a prominent regional player with a robust economy and extensive investment potential, would bolster the bank's credibility and further strengthen its role in driving economic growth and infrastructure development in emerging markets.
Saudi Arabia's interest in joining the BRICS Bank stems from its ambition to diversify its economy and enhance its international partnerships. Membership in the bank could provide the kingdom with access to funding for infrastructure projects, technological advancements, and sustainable initiatives. Moreover, the collaboration with BRICS countries would enable Saudi Arabia to tap into their extensive experience and knowledge, fostering innovation and driving economic growth. Joining the BRICS Bank could also enhance the kingdom's visibility and influence on the global stage, facilitating closer ties with emerging economies and opening doors for potential trade and investment opportunities.
While Saudi Arabia's potential entry into the BRICS Bank offers numerous benefits, several challenges and considerations should be taken into account. The bank must ensure that new members align with its values, goals, and commitment to sustainable development. Furthermore, the inclusion of Saudi Arabia could pose geopolitical considerations, given the regional dynamics and potential differences in policy approaches. The bank will need to strike a balance between diverse perspectives and maintain a consensus-driven approach to decision-making to ensure effective collaboration and avoid potential conflicts of interest.

After 12 years of trials and errors, Thomas Custer would finally rise and claim the presidency in a Post-Barnum era. With the nation being fundamentally changed in the past 8 years and with the effect of Barnum’s administration still very prevalent, like the still persistent Revelationist and Communard issues, Custer would need to uncharacteristically tread carefully to prevail in such a climate.
President Thomas Custer’s Cabinet
Vice President - Alfred A. Taylor
Secretary of State - Francis Cockrell
Secretary of the Treasury - Adlai Stevenson I
Secretary of War - John Potter Stockton
Secretary of the Navy - Arthur Sewall
Secretary of the Interior - Thomas Goode Jones
Attorney General - Jesse Root Grant II
Secretary of Sustenance - Sylvester Pennoyer
Secretary of Public Safety - Lyon G. Tyler (resigned May 1891), John R. McLean
(read about the campaigns against the radicals here) Left? Right? No, Custerite!
During his election campaign, the president promised a wide-range of groups things he would do in a future administration. Appealing to liberals, conservatives, nationalists, populists, militarists, anti-imperialists, and pro-reconciliationists, Custer would be flexible and non-partisan in his policies in order to fulfil such promises. Custer would first appeal to the anti-imperialist wing of his support by renegotiating to United States' promised port in the Congo during the Berlin Conference, crafted by Secretary Francis Cockrell, the United States would sell their land claims to the French on August 1889 for $1,250,000. The move would receive praise from anti-imperialists like Senators George Boutwell (F-MA) and Grover Cleveland (C-NY), and Representatives Edward Atkinson (C-MA) and John Wanamaker (P-PA), although opposition was brought in by some Commons and the old Barnumites like Representative William McKinley (F-OH).
Land designated for the United States (dark blue) were sold to the French Empire
Appealing to the pro-reconciliationists would be a harder feat than any of this. Ever since the end of the Civil War, stigmatism between the black and white communities in the south grew, it was further boosted by the barring policy of the Davis and Hamlin administrations which divided communities between whites and blacks to prevent violence. Forced integration was implemented by Custer with the Integration and Co-operation Act of 1889 which merged local segregated communities and forced some citizens living in those communities to live within the other group's area. Anti-reconciliationists like Senator Arthur Pue Gorman (C-MD) and Representative Benjamin Tillman (C-SC) opposed the bill, as they were elected within or with the backing of a white-only segregated community, though the pro-reconciliationists, which composed of both of the old pro and anti Barnumites, populists, salvationists, and progressives pushed the bill to pass Congress.
Capitol Building 1889
The act faced major scrutiny from both black and white anti-reconciliationists, which pushed it as dictatorial and a breach of their civil liberties. The case made it all the way to the Supreme Court of the United States in the case Jennings v. Gibbs, in which Florida county lawyer William Sherman Jennings sued Representative Thomas Van Renssalaer Gibbs (F-FL) for 'infringing on and decrying civil liberties' by his support of the act. Gibbs' lawyers sighted the act was to end possible future violence between the two groups and claimed it was for the overall wellbeing of the country and to the citizen as their move was paid for by the government itself and that it was within the government's authority to enforce such acts, while Jennings sighted the First Amendment, claiming to this act violated the right of petition the government as the citizens were more or less forced into integrating without a say. The court decided on June 10th, 1890, and sided 5-4 in favor of Gibbs, claiming that it was within the government's right to enforce such an act. Although the court did also sort of sided with Jennings, pushing that the citizens moved out of their communities must give their consent and approval of moving out. Justice Robert Roosevelt wrote the majority opinion: "It is within Congress' right to enforce such laws that they apply, although it is also important to receive the consent and approval of those being affect by the laws they apply, as without it is simple tyranny.". The Supreme Court just marked pro-reconciliation acts as constitutional.
Lawyer William Sherman Jennings and Representative Thomas Van Renssalaer Gibbs
With Custer getting the greenlight on reconciliation, he began to deal with those dissenting on his new laws. Some violence and unrest arose from anti-reconciliation protestors causing riots and clashes with the police, in one incident, an anti-reconciliation mob beat one police officer to death and threw in body in the streets. The incident shocked the nation and many demanded justice, this gave Custer the backing to enact another plan he had. In the span of June-August, thousands of anti-reconciliationist rioters were arrested and sent to 're-education facilities' to be 're-educated' about their beliefs, those re-educated would be release after a month and if they caused more dissent they would be thrown back into the facilities to be 're-educated' once again. No one exactly knows what happens in the facilities but rumors going from torture to brainwashing are common, but those released from the facilities never talk about their experience there. Although, anti-reconciliation violence has been significantly reduced ever since the program was created.
Custer's Politics for Dummies
The Presidential Cabinet has always been more or less been aligned with the president's beliefs, although in this case, with the president's beliefs all over the place, the cabinet would be quiet diverse. Some would have quite populistic beliefs like Treasury Secretary Stevenson and Sustenance Secretary Pennoyer, some would be traditionally conservative like Navy Secretary Sewall, War Secretary Stockton, and Secretary of Public Safety Tyler, and some would be considered more liberal like Secretaries Cockrell and Jones, and Attorney General Grant. This caused some division in the cabinet, with many members having different opinions on issues, like the admission of more states in the plain, with the more populistic members being for it and the conservative ones being against it. Vice President Alfred A. Taylor, who was often the most moderate within the cabinet, often had headaches due to the amount of bickering in the cabinet, privately saying, "I would rather have been the presidential cook than a member of this cabinet.". Taylor was known for serving delicious Tennessee Cornbread during cabinet meetings and public events, which were from his own recipe.
On the Congressional front, politics there too was starkly changing. The Radical People's and Christian Salvation Parties had faced a significant decline over the last election and were facing even complete dissolution. The bells did toll for the Salvationists, as on June 1, 1889, waiting for a train going from his hometown of Freeport, Illinois to Chicago, Senator Charles J. Guiteau was shot by an assailant who was connected to the Salvationists. The bullet did not puncture his heart though and he was immediately treated by doctors. The doctors, however, operated on him with unsterilized fingers and tools trying to find the bullet, and Guiteau contracted an infection which slowly weakened his health. Guiteau would pass away on June 30th, which ended a major figurehead for the Salvationists. With their main leader gone, the Salvationists and their party were now certainly going to fall, so once again they turned to the Populists to help, they proposed a merge of their parties, unlike the Visionary Alliance back in 1884, this move would be permanent. A joint Radical People's-Christian Salvation convention was called in D.C., in which they decided to form the Reformed People's Party which would incorporate both Populist and Salvationist agendas. All Salvationists and Populists would run on this party's banner starting on the 1890 midterms, causing a wave of new support of their joint movements to grow. Representatives like Jerry Simpson (RP-KA), Charles Tupper (CS-NS), and Marion Butler (RP-NC), and Senator John P. St. John (CS-KA), although notably the party leader Senator James B. Weaver (RP-IA) did not outright support the merger.
Representative Jerry Simpson and Senator John P. St. John.
Troubles also arose within the ruling party itself. With Custer's moves in office being controversial not only nation-wide but also within his own party. Many Commons were repulsed by Custer's appeal to nationalists and populists, like his push for isolationism, labor reform, free trade, and anti-gold standard policies, which saw as the reason why the current economy was entering a small recession. The Custer administration was also known as notoriously corrupt, though Custer himself was more blind to the issue than actually involved in it, it was well-known that politicians like Secretary Tyler were making backdoor deals with businessmen like J.P. Morgan and Andrew Carnegie, even personally aiding in putting down worker strikes. Representative William Kissam Vanderbilt (P-NY) even once said, "The difference between a crafty serpent and a pro-big business politician? They have heels, I suppose.". These anti-reform and anti-Custerite politicians within the Commonwealth Party were called 'Reactionaries'. The reactionaries would included members like Senators Arthur Pue Gorman and John M. Palmer (C-IL) and Representatives like John Carlisle (C-KY). The reactionaries would form a major bloc within the party, often favoring militarism and traditional values in Congress, as seen from there opposition of the pro-reconciliation bills and their support for things like the gold standard and imperialism. But also from the other side of the spectrum are the people who see Custer as not reforming enough. Although they weren't as loud as the reactionaries and still mainly accept the situation, many still want more reform coming from the high office. The groups members included the likes of Representatives Samuel M. Jones (F-OH) and Charles N. Felton (C-CA), advocating mostly for internationalism, taxes, anti-corruption measures, and tariff reduction. Though more extreme politicians like Jones would call for monopoly busting, strong regulation, and direct elections.
Senator Arthur Pue Gorman and Representative Charles N. Felton would represent two very different sides of the same party
The Freedom Party had faced its largest split since the Federalist-Freedomite split during Henry Clay’s term. After the elections of 1888, the former Anti-Barnumites had taken control of most major positions in the main Freedom Party after the Conservative Freedom Party remerged with them. Staunch Anti-Barnumites like the pragmatic Representative Thomas Brackett Reed and stanch conservative Senator William Pierce Frye (F-MA) would all head their party in Congress. The remaining former Barnumites such as Representative William McKinley sought to amend the wounds between their counterparts and began the works to begin reconciling between the factions. Though many Freedomites were unsure about reconciling with the other faction, members like McKinley, Reed, and Representative Henry Clay Evans (F-TN) were influential in eventually mending their relations by the 1890 midterms, showing a mostly fully united party. This also was partly helped by the fact that former President Phineas Taylor Barnum would call for his old party’s unification, which had some mixed reactions in the party.
The aging former President P.T. Barnum who would later die on April 1891
(read here about the Military Crisis of 1890 here)
The Military's Resolve
The government would once again refused the military extremists' demands of increased power. As such, the 700 or so extremists would attempt to storm the White House, with others were sent to seize government buildings and offices against the capitol. The D.C. police was immediately called to hold back the group and a shootout immediately ensued outside the White House. 2 hours passed as the shootout continued and both rebels and police were shot dead, the White House received significant damage due to artillery brought by the rebels, with some rebels even entering the now evacuated building. As the 3rd hour mark hit, military loyalist finally arrived at the scene, led by Harrison Gray Otis and Arthur MacArthur, the 3,000 loyalists sent engaged the rebels who were now resorting to guerilla warfare. 3 more hours would pass as the loyalists would trek to find the rebels scattered around Capitol Hill, it finally cease as the loyalists would find and capture both Jacob H. Smith and J. Franklin Bell hiding in an abandoned building, the remaining rebels would surrender in the 7th hour. Over 500 people would die in the so-called "Battle of Capitol Hill".
Government loyalist in the outskirts of D.C. looking for rebels
The affair caused a uproar across the nation, with some siding the government claiming the military was being spoiled, while some supported the rebel's calls claiming the remaining restrictions were still ruining their careers. It also divided the military more, with some siding with the loyalists and some adhering to the rebel's calls. Fears began to rise of a second Civil War due to such divisions, as some Reactionary politicians began to support the militarist cause. Immediate calls within the government were pushing for appeasement to the militarists to avoid another rebellion. Thus negotiators began to work on something to ease the stress of the military resulting in quite the controversial move.
The 16th Amendment to the United States Constitution would add 9 seats to the House of Representatives that would be designated for the military. Called the 'Military Representatives', 9 servicemen would be chosen from either branch of the military to serve as Representatives for the military's interests. The Representatives would be appointed by the president and approved by the Senate and members could be removed by the president during House elections. The amendment was ratified with astonishing speed, being ratified only two months after it was proposed on February 23, 1891 right before the 52nd Congress met on March 4th. Custer also personally backed the amendment, with others like Representative Thomas B. Reed and William Kissam Vanderbilt supporting it. The 9 Military Representatives were sworn in along with the other 349 normally elected Representatives. Despite the amendment being quickly ratified, it still faced major opposition from anti-militarists and especially the remaining Populists and Salvationists. Representative Henry Clay Evans about the amendment, "If this amendment were to pass, we would be nothing but lapdogs to the armed forces, always in fear of a military rebellion.". Senator Daniel W. Voorhees (P-IN) stated, "Giving any more powers to the military would strip our fairly elected government of independence and reason, as fear would now dominate our politics.". Speaker Alexander S. Clay (C-GA) would be ousted as Speaker by John Wanamaker after the midterms in an anti-Commonwealth vote, Clay would later state, "Was supporting the amendment to the Constitution the right action? I do not know that answer. Yet I know one thing. It was the only action there was."
Results of the 1890 House of Representatives Elections
Results of the 1890 Senate Elections
Tommy the Man
After the meltdowns of the past two years, Custer would focus in his domestic and foreign policy. Custer would continue his pro-reconciliation policies, achieving slow success across the south, with some forcefully integrated communities prospering and with some having being burnt to the ground. Both pro-labor and pro-business policies would be implemented, such as an 8-hour work day and a shorter work week, other than this, businesses would be usually deregulated and were given reigns in handling any of their practices, with businessmen such as J.P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, and John D. Rockefeller emerging as powerful figures nationally, with their monopolies being wide reaching.
Cartoon mocking the rise of corporations and their growing power over politics
Custer's more reformist policies would deter some of his allies against him, as the likes of Public Safety Secretary Lyon G. Tyler, who disliked Custer's rowdiness in politics in general. Tyler basically had enough went Custer vetoed many legislations that were drafted by the Commons themselves. Tyler resigned as Secretary on May 1891, being replaced by the more moderate John R. McLean. Despite being bashed for his reforms, Custer would also be criticized for his more conservative policies too. A believer in laissez-faire economics and free trade, Custer would refuse to intervene in the economy even when it entered a recession during 1890-91. Custer would often get criticized for allowing big business to skyrocket out of control with their monopolies and trusts, though he would claim his concern was only of the workers' well being. Governor Nathan Goff Jr. (P-VA) would criticize Custer's domestic policies by stating, "Protectionism, direct elections, and internationalism are core things we need in this day and age, not only in Virginia but nationally, yet the president has rejected all of them.". Custer's domestic policies would see opposition from the new reformed populists, which called the Commonwealth Party the party of 'Business, Booze, and Boors'.
Custer, despite being a self-proclaimed 'isolationist', often had interest in foreign affairs yet couldn't act on them as fearing it would deter his supporters. When war broke out in South America in December 31, 1891, when Argentina, who is run by the dictator Nicholas Levalle who recently staged a coup against the government, and Bolivia invaded Chile and Paraguay (more on in the foreign events section), Custer privately sought intervention in favor of Chile and Paraguay to preserve their democracies. Yet Congress and the general public were staunchly against any intervention in South America as they saw as another foreign war. Anti-intervention sentiment grew even further when the Empire of Brazil intervened in favor of Chile and Paraguay on April 1, 1892, their force now being called the 'Continental Alliance', causing the scale of the war to increase and the death toll to grow. Though the public opinion was firmly sympathetic to the Continental Alliance, some in government sought to aid the 'Golden Alliance' of Argentina and Bolivia, as they saw helping them as a way to control their economy and politics, though yet again the majority rejected intervention. Custer did consult his cabinet on what to do on the matter, which Secretaries Sewall and Jones were in favor of intervention, though other like Secretary Cockrell and Attorney General Grant were against it which ultimately led Custer to not intervene for the time being. The US did sell highly demanded imports to both sides of the conflict, which yielded major profit.
- Major Foreign Events -
The War Down Even More South
High inflation, corruption, and bad worker rights in Argentina caused major unrest against the government. The Revolution of Park broke out against the government then run by the conservative National Autonomist Party on July 26, 1890. The rebels captured an arms and ammunition facility in the city and began to arm themselves as government began to apprehend them. The government forces were caught off guard by the now armed rebels and were forced to retreat, the rebels then turned to the Casa Rosada and the president, the revolutionaries successfully broke through the guards and stormed the building, forcing President Manuel Celman to resign. A revolutionary junta was put in place of the government as a new larger government loyalist force was organized to recapture the capitol, which led was by General Nicholas Levalle. The loyalist force successfully defeated revolutionary resistance in the capitol and entered the Casa Rosada, the revolutionary junta was defeat although President Celman had been executed and Vice President Pellegrini had fled the city. Levalle, seeing an opportunity, declared himself emergency president, even rejecting Pellegrini when he returned to the city. Over the past months, Lavalle would style himself with dictatorial powers over the Argentine government, which only fueled his ego.
General Nicholas Levalle of Argentina
Lavalle was a man who opposed the resolve of the border dispute between Chile in Patagonia which restricted Argentina outside the Pacific Ocean. In tandem, Bolivia's Gregorio Pacheco, who succeeded his very pro-Chile predecessor, had designs on Chile after Bolivia had lost the War of the Pacific, as well as Paraguay. Lavalle had secret meetings with Pacheco regarding their plan on Chile, later including Paraguay to the discussion, many meetings later and they decided on a plan to demand land from both nations. Their militaries were built up in the coming months to prepare for the incoming conflict. On December 26, 1891, Bolivia sent an ultimatum to Chile demanding their coastal provinces lost in the War of the Pacific to be returned, Argentina would back them the next day. On the 27th, Bolivia demanded full recognition of the control of the Chaco region from Paraguay, which Argentina backed the same day. Given until the 31st to respond, the Chilean and Paraguayan governments refused to respond to the ultimatums, so on the 31st, Bolivia declared war on Chile and Bolivia, Argentina would declare war on January 2nd.
The campaigns at first favored the 'Golden Alliance' of Argentina and Bolivia, which saw advanced in the north of Chile and southern Paraguay. By February, the Golden Alliance would be nearing the Paraguayan capital of Asuncion, which worried their neighbor to the east, the Empire of Brazil. Empress Isabel I was facing a waning popularity, especially after her father abolished slavery, and the public were firmly against the Golden Alliance. Fearing Argentina's and Bolivia's victory would shatter trust in her even more, she decided to intervene. An ultimatum was sent to Argentina, dictating to end the war or face a blockade, the Argentinians ignored the order. Brazilian ships would begin a naval blockade against Argentina, but oddly some ships were ordered to go dangerously close to the Argentina coast on February 25th. As the ships grew near, the Argentine coast guard were unable to recognize the vessels and assumed they were Chilean and open fired. Despite Argentina apologizing for the incident, the affair caused enough outrage in Brazil to secure that a war was a certain. Brazil declared war on both Argentina and Bolivia on April 1st, forming the 'Continental Alliance' with Chile and Paraguay. The war would rage on from April-August as many foreign nations watched, with both sides gaining the upper hand many times and thousands dead or wounded. By August, both sides would be exhausted by war and bloodshed and needed something to tip the scales.
Empress Isabel I of Brazil
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The Fed
US Labor May Nonfarm Payrolls +339K; Consensus +190K US May Private Sector Payrolls +283K and Government Payrolls +56K US May Unemployment Rate 3.7%; Consensus 3.5% US May Average Hourly Earnings +0.33% MoM, or +4.30% yoy (exp 4.4%); Hours worked 34.3, down a bit.
Today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is a perfect goldilocks data. A significant gain in payroll numbers, indicating strength in the economy. However, the increase in the unemployment rate suggests that the jobs market is loosening up, also low than expected wage growth both gave the Fed a good reason to pause in June.
This observation aligns with the regional Fed survey data for this month, that although business conditions are deteriorating, companies are reluctant to lay off employees due to the tight labor market and expectations of improvement in business conditions in the coming months.
As mentioned yesterday, it appears that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) may have reached a low point, indicating a potential stabilization. However, if the PMI does not recover, there may be job losses in the second half of the year.
https://preview.redd.it/a9vt8p30lo3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=2979eb2fa76f6c6c2649f241398a23cd1a82038d
More good news for disinflation: Food prices hit a 2 year low in May. The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 124.3 points in May 2023, down 3.4 points (2.6 percent) from April and as much as 35.4 points (22.1 percent) from the all-time high it reached in March 2022.
https://preview.redd.it/wgse8bgylo3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0642943af71cc6286d2df6cf3c4f14e2bfdafd1
On the international front, ECB's Makhlouf says likely to see another rate increase at next meeting. But on the other hand, rumor has it that more liquidity is coming from China. I mentioned a few times that China is have a hard time as the re-opening rally didn't last nearly as long as people have hoped. To further boost economy growth, a fresh property-stimulus package may be on the way. Even though just a rumor at this point, XLB and XLI rallied big time today on the news.
The Economy
BoA is still projecting recession in Q3 and Q4 with negative GDP and job losses (so are most banks).
https://preview.redd.it/1u1ltuhsmo3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=eba1bd8aa433f8cd54ac6172200fd9f6399c5858
Loan default is at an alarming level, but given how much loan were issued during COVID, this is probably not as alarming as it looks.
https://preview.redd.it/h5bp4756no3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=993aad9234c889bf8d4ce507c3f7bbb97c2dad75
JPM President Pinto says economy looks okay for now, doesn't see a crisis.
The Business
Speaking of FOMO, last month had the biggest institutional inflow into tech since Feb 2021 and last week had the biggest inflow since ever.
https://preview.redd.it/nbuakhxwno3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=3defd7fc2b1523263a0a3e36a4c27b17e84e2607
MS on AAPL - "Near term, “AVR is <1% of revs but .. has the potential to become Apple's next $20B+ compute platform.” Upgrade price target to $190. Yeah, that's right, the Metaverse is still alive.
JPM desk on yesterday’s rally: “.. limits are moving up .. hedges coming off .. we’re seeing underperforming core names get bought .. the most notable thing is no one is selling in size… Trimming, yes. Shorting, barely. Exiting winning positions, absolutely not.”
China plans to extend the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles (EVs). TSLA holders are happy today.
Investors are betting on the long part of the yield curve. TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X), a tripled leverage ETF, has more than doubled in size since the beginning of the year.
https://preview.redd.it/pwbgx13koo3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=138d7658e2c19bf630117cbd5b59b502d2d881ea
Amazon is reportedly in talks to provide mobile service to Prime members in the United States. As a result of this news, telecom stocks in the U.S. experienced a decline.
Bank insiders are currently purchasing shares in their own companies at the fastest pace since the COVID crash. In the second quarter, the ratio of buyers to sellers has reached a record high of 14.7 to 1.
https://preview.redd.it/d0v36titoo3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=4330b3ef02c2de2dbee754a3108d5eb08f0d7c24
Last but not least, here is the GS conviction buy list
https://preview.redd.it/vxhofpv7po3b1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4ef9d56d751163b3cbce4b0ac79ddcd86ca978d
Bought some garbage (KRE, CCL, CVNA) and IWM calls today. Let's see if we can have a final squeeze before the pull back.

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Happy Friday Superstonk, I hope everyone had a great week! Resident Jellyfish back again to review this weeks commercial bank deposit data (and how deposit outflows are still being 'made up' with borrowing from sweetheart liquidity programs for the banks.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20230602/
​
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOG (to be added when update publishes)
A little over a year ago (4/13/2022) the high was hit at $18,158.3536 billion

Date	Deposits, All Commercial Banks (billions)	Down from all time high (billions)
4/13/2022	$18,158	0
2/22/2023 (Run picks up speed)	$17,690	-$468 billion
3/1/2023	$17,662	-$496 billion
3/8/2023	$17,599	-$559 billion
3/15/2023	$17,428	-$730 billion
3/22/2023	$17,256	-$902 billion
3/29/2023	$17,192	-$966 billion
4/5/2023	$17,253	-$905 billion
4/12/2023	$17,168	-$990 billion
4/19/2023	$17,180	-$978 billion
4/26/2023	$17,164	-$994 billion
5/3/2023	$17,149	-$1,009 billion
5/10/2023	$17,123	-$1,035 billion
5/17/2023	$17,152	-$1006 billion
5/24/2023	$17,238	-$920 billion

All this money pulled from commercial banks as M2 (U.S. money stock--currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks, plus savings deposits, small time deposits under 100k, and shares in retail money market funds) is decreasing:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
A little less than a year ago (July 2022) the M2 high was hit at $21,703 billion

Date	M2 (billions)	Down from all time high (billions)
July 2022	$21,703	0
August 2022	$21,660	-$43 billion
September 2022	$21,524	-$179 billion
October 2022	$21,432	-$271 billion
November 2022	$21,398	-$305 billion
December 2022	$21,358	-$345 billion
January 2023	$21,212	-$491 billion
February 2023*	$21,076	-$627 billion
March 2023	$20,840	-$863 billion
April 2023	$20,673	-$1030 billion

^\Bank run in commercial banks picked up in February 2023.)

1. M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of other checkable deposits (or OCDs, which comprise negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions) and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and other liquid deposits, each seasonally adjusted separately.
2. M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing small-denomination time deposits and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding the result to seasonally adjusted M1.
3. Currency in circulation consists of Federal Reserve notes and coin outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks.
4. Reserve balances are balances held by depository institutions in master accounts and excess balance accounts at Federal Reserve Banks.
5. Monetary base equals currency in circulation plus reserve balances.
6. Total reserves equal reserve balances plus, before April 2020, vault cash used to satisfy reserve requirements.
7. Total borrowings in millions of dollars from the Federal Reserve are borrowings from the discount window's primary, secondary, and seasonal credit programs and other borrowings from emergency lending facilities. For borrowings included, see "Loans" in table 1 of the H.4.1 statistical release.
8. Nonborrowed reserves equal total reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve.

However, borrowing from the liquidity fairy is spiraling to make up for it shrinking M2 and dwindling deposits:

1. Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
2. Discount Window/Primary Credit
3. "Other Credit Extensions"

Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW

Tool	Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)	Up from 3/15, 1st week of program ($ billion)
3/15	$11.943 billion	$0 billion
3/22	$53.669 billion	$41.723 billion
3/29	$64.403 billion	$52.460 billion
3/31	$64.595 billion	$52.652 billion
4/5	$79.021 billion	$67.258 billion
4/12	$71.837 billion	$59.894 billion
4/19	$73.982 billion	$62.039 billion
4/26	$81.327 billion	$69.384 billion
5/3	$75.778 billion	$63.935 billion
5/10	$83.101 billion	$71.158 billion
5/17	$87.006 billion	$75.063 billion
5/24	$91.907 billion	$79.964 billion
5/31	$93.615 billion	$81.672 billion

​
https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/11prthd/federal_reserve_alert_federal_reserve_board/

• Association, or credit union) or U.S. branch or agency of a foreign bank that is eligible for primary credit (see 12 CFR 201.4(a)) is eligible to borrow under the Program.
• Banks can borrow for up to one year, at a fixed rate for the term, pegged to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points.
• Banks have to post collateral (valued at par!).
• Any collateral has to be “owned by the borrower as of March 12, 2023."
• Eligible collateral includes any collateral eligible for purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks in open market operations.

Discount Window/Primary Credit:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLPCL

Tool	Discount Window	Down from 3/15 high
3/15	$152.853 billion	$0 billion
3/22	$110.248 billion	-$42.605 billion
3/29	$88.157 billion	-$64.696 billion
4/5	$69.705 billion	-$83.148 billion
4/12	$67.633 billion	-$85.22 billion
4/19	$69.925 billion	-$82.928 billion
4/26	$73.855 billion	-$78.998 billion
5/3	$.5345 billion	-$152.3185 billion
5/10	$.9323 billion	-$151.9207 billion
5/17	$.9048 billion	-$151.9482 billion
5/24	$.4211 billion	-$152.4319 billion
5/31	$.3971 billion	-$152.4559 billion

Primary Credit allows banks to borrow against collateral at the current federal funds rate:
https://preview.redd.it/zupd46owun3b1.png?width=1307&format=png&auto=webp&s=9587980284306d274996be3f02b5f7a7770441da
Overview:

Federal Reserve lending to depository institutions (the “discount window”) plays an important role in supporting the liquidity and stability of the banking system and the effective implementation of monetary policy.
By providing ready access to funding, the discount window helps depository institutions manage their liquidity risks efficiently and avoid actions that have negative consequences for their customers, such as withdrawing credit during times of market stress. Thus, the discount window supports the smooth flow of credit to households and businesses. Providing liquidity in this way is one of the original purposes of the Federal Reserve System and other central banks around the world.

​

The "Primary Credit" program is the principal safety valve for ensuring adequate liquidity in the banking system. Primary credit is priced relative to the FOMC’s target range for the federal funds rate and is normally granted on a “no-questions-asked,” minimally administered basis. There are no restrictions on borrowers’ use of primary credit.

https://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/Pages/General-Information/Primary-and-Secondary-Lending-Programs.aspx
Examples of common borrowing situations:

• Tight money markets or undue market volatility
• Preventing an overnight overdraft
• Meeting a need for funding, including a short-term liquidity demand that may arise from unexpected deposit withdrawals or a spike in loan demand

The introduction of the primary credit program in 2003 marked a fundamental shift - from administration to pricing - in the Federal Reserve's approach to discount window lending. Notably, eligible depository institutions may obtain primary credit without exhausting or even seeking funds from alternative sources. Minimal administration of and restrictions on the use of primary credit makes it a reliable funding source. Being prepared to borrow primary credit enhances an institution's liquidity.

Notice how use of the Discount Window has PLUMMETED as BTFP has come in to play? BTFP offers slightly lower interest and longer terms. I wonder how many folks paid back their Discount Window loans with BTFP money?

“Other credit extensions”:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFOCEL

Tool	Other Credit Extension	Up from 3/15, 1st week of program ($ billion)
3/15	$142.8 billion	$0 billion
3/22	$179.8 billion	$37 billion
3/29	$180.1 billion	$37.3 billion
4/5	$174.6 billion	$31.8 billion
4/12	$172.6 billion	$29.8 billion
4/19	$172.6 billion	$29.8 billion
4/26	$170.3 billion	$27.5 billion
5/3	$228.2 billion	$85.4 billion
5/10	$212.5 billion	$69.7billion
5/17	$208.5 billion	$65.7 billion
5/24	$192.6 billion	$49.8 billion
5/31	$188.092 billion	$45.292 billion

"Other credit extensions" includes loans that were extended to depository institutions established by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The Federal Reserve Banks' loans to these depository institutions are secured by collateral and the FDIC provides repayment guarantees.
For example, $114 billion in face value Agency Mortgage Backed Securities, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations, and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities about to be liquidated 'gradual and orderly' with the 'aim to minimize the potential for any adverse impact on market functioning' by BlackRock.
How I understand this works:

• The FDIC created temporary banks to support the operations of the ones they have taken over.
• The FDIC did not have the money to operate these banks.
• The Fed is providing that in the form of a loan via "Other credit extensions".
• The FDIC is going to sell the taken over banks assets.
• Whatever the difference between the sale of the assets and the ultimate loan number is, will be the amount split up amongst all the remaining banks and applied as a special fee to make the Fed 'whole'.
• It can be argued the consumer will ultimately end up paying for this as banks look to pass this cost on in some way.

There has been an update on this piece recently:

Whatever the difference between the sale of the assets and the ultimate loan number is, will be the amount split up amongst all the remaining banks and applied as a special fee to make the Fed 'whole'.

FDIC Board of Directors Issues a Proposed Rule on Special Assessment Pursuant to Systemic Risk Determination of approximately $15.8 billion. It is estimated that a total of 113 banking organizations would be subject to the special assessment.
https://www.fdic.gov/news/fact-sheets/systemic-risk-determination-5-11-23.html

What does all this borrowing look like for the banks? They sure as heck aren't getting funding from deposits...:

https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/13eme4d/bank_funding_during_the_current_monetary_policy/

Over the few weeks prior to the FDIC receivership announcements on March 10 and 12, the banking sector lost another approximately $450 billion. Throughout, the banking sector has offset the reduction in deposit funding with an increase in other forms of borrowing which has increased by $800 billion since the start of the tightening.
The right panel of the chart below summarizes the cumulative change in deposit funding by bank size category since the start of the tightening cycle through early March 2023 and then through the end of March. Until early March 2023, the decline in deposit funding lined up with bank size, consistent with the concentration of deposits in larger banks. Small banks lost no deposit funding prior to the events of late March. In terms of percentage decline, the outflows were roughly equal for regional, super-regional, and large banks at around 4 percent of total deposit funding:

https://preview.redd.it/q162qztuvn3b1.png?width=572&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f802c33839e95f31b97d10d3e78c568189956b9
The blue bar in the left panel above shows that the pattern changes following the run on SVB. The additional outflow is entirely concentrated in the segment of super-regional banks. In fact, most other size categories experience deposit inflows.
The right panel illustrates that outflows at super-regionals begin immediately after the failure of SVB and are mirrored by deposit inflows at large banks in the second week of March 2022.
Further, while deposit funding remains at a lower level throughout March for super-regional banks, the initially large inflows mostly reverse by the end of March. Notably, banks with less than $100 billion in assets were relatively unaffected.

However, during the most acute phase of banking stress in mid-March, other borrowings exceeded reductions in deposit balances, suggesting significant and widespread demand for precautionary liquidity. A substantial amount of liquidity was provided by the private markets, likely via the FHLB system, but primary credit and the Bank Term Funding Program (both summarized as Federal Reserve credit) were equally important.

https://preview.redd.it/no5wga6xvn3b1.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8b2fe4a73e16ac898400327a4fb4d60b7fd15bc

• Large banks increased borrowing the most, which is in line with deposit outflows being strongest for larger banks before March 2023.
• During March 2023, both super-regional and large banks increase their borrowings, with most increases being centered in the super-regional banks that faced the largest deposit outflows.
• Note, however, that not all size categories face deposit outflows but that all except the small banks increase their other borrowings.
• This pattern suggests demand for precautionary liquidity buffers across the banking system, not just among the most affected institutions:

https://preview.redd.it/qmvodidzvn3b1.png?width=561&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea00b249dc900b9240a03a0a3dcb91899c9196eb

• Banks have been replacing deposit outflows with the borrowing we have covered above.

TLDRS:

• Folks have pulled $920 billion in deposits since 4/13/2022
• Folks have pulled $452 billion in deposits since 2/22/2023
• Folks have added $86 billion in deposits 5/17-5/24
• Is the bank run stabilizing? More fuel for June rate hike?

https://preview.redd.it/423co291wn3b1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=627a66605849c3ea0fc91d6e129f7420cb2a5ed4

June 1, 2023~The United States Needs a Shift in Perspective on Mining~

The United States Needs a Shift in Perspective on Mining (csis.org)
Photo: JJW Photography/Adobe Stock
The energy transition involves more than a move away from high-carbon fuels to low- and zero-carbon fuels. It also entails the fundamental reorganization of the global economy around so-called critical minerals—the metals and other raw materials needed to build electric cars, solar panels, power lines, and other technologies that cut carbon emissions.
At the risk of stating the obvious, mines are needed to produce critical minerals, and right now, United States doesn’t have enough mines meet the demands of the energy transition—not even close.
While the United States also has to work closely with allies to secure the supply chains for these materials, something has to change at home, too.
Like many other U.S. industries, mining was largely outsourced to other parts of the world during the late twentieth century. As a result, global markets for most in-demand minerals are now dominated by the Chinese Communist Party. In fact, of the 50 critical minerals listed by the U.S. government, China is the top producer of 30 of them.
“For most critical minerals, the United States is heavily reliant on foreign sources for its consumption requirements,” a U.S. Geological Survey report said. It further reported that domestic metals production fell 6 percent in 2022.
Simply stated, the United States needs to build new mines and expand existing mines in the United States. Rather than stop digging, the United States needs to start.
To be sure, it will not be easy. Before the passage of landmark environmental laws in the 1970s, including the National Environmental Policy Act and Clean Water Act, the U.S. mining sector was known for polluting practices and indifference to the concerns of neighboring communities. Public anger and distrust proved to be a major factor in the offshoring of U.S. mining after the 1970s. This was understandable, but there were unintended consequences.
An “out of sight, out of mind” approach to metals and other mineral commodities took hold, giving tacit approval to toxic waste dumping, the use of child labor, and other reprehensible mining practices abroad.
Today, there is an opportunity to write a new chapter for the U.S. mining sector, in which the some of the raw materials for advanced energy technologies are produced here, under close scrutiny, subject to the most protective standards in the world and—above all—with strong public support.
The complicated history of mineral extraction in this country must be addressed fully and forthrightly, but it cannot be used as an excuse to keep saying no. At this point there doesn’t seem to be a mine on federal land that is not facing opposition, delays, or rejection.
Fortunately, there are already some promising examples of this new approach to mining in the United States.

A Sense of Patriotism

In southeast Nebraska, for example, the developers of a mine that will produce materials for electric-vehicle batteries have built a strong base of support in the local community. As reported by the New York Times, the mine has secured all the permits it needs to start digging and the developer—Colorado-based NioCorp—is now working with the U.S. Export–Import bank to complete financing for the billion-dollar project.
The planned Elk Creek mine will produce niobium, scandium, titanium, and a series of magnetic rare earth minerals. The global market for these minerals is dominated by other countries, including China, Russia, and Brazil.
These critical minerals can be used to build the components for electric vehicle batteries, fuel cells and wind turbines. But in conservative southeast Nebraska, NioCorp has found ways to connect with people who are less concerned with the energy transition and more worried about economic issues and national security.
The minerals produced at Elk Creek will also be used to make lighter and stronger steel products for the automotive, construction, and oil and natural gas industries, and to build fighter jet engines, among other military applications.
“NioCorp is being very thoughtful in how they’re communicating with Southeast Nebraskans,” Senator Julie Slama (R-NE), who represents the Elk Creek area, said. “In Nebraska, we have a sense of patriotism and desire to serve our country.”
While the proposed mine still has its detractors, the broad-based appeal of the project has helped maintain a sufficient mass of support, also known within industry circles as the “social license to operate.”

Same Rocks, More Value

While building new mines is absolutely necessary, it will also be important to make the most of the mines the United States already has. In some cases, existing mines will be expanded, but another strategy is gaining momentum: full-value mining.
This strategy identifies new ways to get other metals and other valuable materials out of the same rocks, which improves the economics of the existing mine and reduces mining waste.
A leading example of full-value mining is taking place in Utah at the Kennecott copper mine, southwest of Salt Lake City. Last year, the mine’s owner—Rio Tinto—started producing tellurium there as well.
The tellurium, which is used to make highly efficient thin-film solar panels, was in the same rocks as the copper. But until last year, it was not cost effective to separate it out, and the tellurium was discarded along with other waste.
That changed when Rio Tinto found a U.S. buyer for the tellurium, First Solar, which builds solar panels in Ohio. The deal was “an important step towards securing a North American supply chain of critical minerals to support the clean energy transition,” the mining company said.

Old Mines, New Tricks

The idea of reprocessing piles of discarded rocks and other mine waste has also gained steam. Innovative companies like Nth Cycle and Phoenix Tailings have developed technologies that can cleanly and safely extract critical minerals from this waste.
These breakthroughs also allow for the reprocessing of waste at pre-1970s mines that were abandoned and never properly cleaned up. For example: Regeneration, a start-up mining company is scouting for locations where critical minerals can be produced from abandoned mines and other so-called legacy sites, while creating new revenue sources for cleaning up those sites.
According to Corey Fisher, the public lands policy director for Trout Unlimited, an environmental nonprofit with experience in abandoned mine restoration, the work of Regeneration and others “will help both clean up abandoned mines and recover much needed transition minerals.”

Confront the Past, Build the Future

Abandoned mines are not the only legacy to confront. The quest for mineral wealth in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was especially cruel to Native American communities.
That history, and the distrust it continues to produce, should not be brushed aside in the quest to build a domestic supply chain for clean energy technologies. According to investment research firm MSCI, between 68 percent and 97 percent of U.S. cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel reserves are located within 35 miles of Native American reservations.
Changing minds about mining in Native American communities will be a massive undertaking, and there are bound to be conflicting signals along the way.
For example: Lithium Americas, the developer of a Nevada mine that will produce lithium carbonate, a key mineral in batteries, reached a “community benefits agreement” last October with the Fort McDermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribe that includes job training, local hiring, cultural education, and other initiatives. However, three others—the Reno-Sparks Indian Colony, Burns Paiute Tribe and Summit Lake Paiute Tribe—are fighting the project in federal court, arguing they were not properly consulted.
Conflicts like these can be resolved or even avoided, but the amount of work needed should not be underestimated, according to Daniel Cardenas of the National Tribal Energy Association.
“If you want loyal and long-term mining partners who can supply the most environmentally friendly and sustainable critical minerals, start talking to the Tribes now,” Cardenas wrote on Linkedin.

A Project-by-Project Focus

According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, leaders in the White House and in Congress have plowed billions of dollars into research, resource assessment, and workforce development programs focused on critical minerals since 2020.
The area of critical minerals also offers one of the rare slivers of bipartisan light. Among other things, that means allowing national security concerns—such as materials needed by the Department of Defense—to play a bigger role in the discussion, as opposed to only seeing mining through an environmental lens.
There are also promising efforts within the Biden administration and on Capitol Hill to speed up the years-long permitting process for mining projects while maintaining environmental safeguards.
These initiatives are essential, but it would be a mistake to assume that all the work to build a domestic supply chain for critical minerals can be done from Washington, D.C. in one fell swoop.
This endeavor will succeed or fail based on delivering this new positive narrative for mining. And the difference will be whether the neighbors can be persuaded that digging for critical minerals in the United States is not just good for the planet—it is good for them too.
Morgan Bazilian is a former lead energy specialist for the World Bank and the director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Simon Lomax is a program manager at the Payne Institute and a former congressional fellow with the American Political Science Association.
​
Join us in Washington DC for Battery Gigafactories USA 2023, a live, and in-person conference being held 8-9 June at the JW Marriott Washington DC, USA.
Two days of discussions will explore the rise of USA's lithium ion battery gigafactory economy and the need to build secure, sustainable supply chains for lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, manganese, rare earths and other critical raw materials.

Battery Gigafactories USA 2023 (benchmarkminerals.com)

SPONSORS:

https://preview.redd.it/6syaesv0dn3b1.png?width=1263&format=png&auto=webp&s=51d81951949e581582251fb2bba779e73091623f

June 2, 2023~China Is Digging a Big Frickin' Hole 33,000 Feet Into the Earth~

China Is Digging a Big Frickin' Hole 33,000 Feet Into the Earth (yahoo.com)

Well at the Shunbei oil and gas field belonging to Sinopec Northwest Oil Field Co. in Tarim Basin of northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, on February 21, 2019.
China has seemingly set off on a journey into the center of the earth. This week the country has begun digging what will eventually become the deepest hole in China’s history to test drilling technology and further understand the Earth’s underground structure, Bloomberg reported.
Once completed, the hole is going to be 10,000 meters (32,808 feet). That’s a little more than 6 miles deep into the earth. The drilling is expected to occur for 457 days and is being led by the China National Petroleum Corp, according to Bloomberg. It will cut through 10 continental strata, which are the various layers of the earth. Once completed it will reach down into the cretaceous system; rocks in that layer of the year date back more than 140 million years.
The drilling project is part of the country’s efforts to expand underground research. During a speech back in 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged scientists to break new barriers in different areas including deep earth exploration, China Daily reported. And earlier this year, Chinese officials vowed to strategically build up the country’s energy supplies and mineral resources. “China will launch a new round of domestic prospecting operations, focusing on strategic bulk minerals that are in short supply,” Wang Guanghua, the minister of Natural Resources, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency, according to Bloomberg.
This could explain why the project is based in the Xinjiang region, which is the largest oil and gas-producing area in the country, the South China Morning Post reported. China also has some of the world’s largest crude iron ore reserves in the world, which is widely used in steelmaking. This could present another energy opportunity for the country as it tests drilling technology.
Countries around the world are increasingly focused on mineral exploration. Rare earth minerals and other elements found deep underground are necessary for new clean technology. They’re often used to make batteries for electric vehicles, for energy storage, and for wind turbines. And as the market for more clean energy continues to increase, nations and businesses will need steady access to those minerals to keep up with demand.
https://preview.redd.it/a5r5gi3qcn3b1.png?width=191&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a070512b1e2d65404c884978b59127efc3f3183

Form Your own Opinions & Conclusions above!

Just a few tidbits for today! Have a Great Weekend ALL!.....
https://preview.redd.it/obiolj30cn3b1.png?width=1774&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ec33fed81e25d92132338f6270f2e8b7dff486
Chico