Marquise goodwin dates joined
Taylor announces international dates for Latam!
2023.06.02 23:51 Apart_Somewhere_5031 Taylor announces international dates for Latam!
 | submitted by Apart_Somewhere_5031 to u/Apart_Somewhere_5031 [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:48 ThrowRA928320 TIFU by calling my girl bsf pathetic and making her cry
I(19m) have been friends with Lana(19f) since we were kids. Our parents are very close and always hung out with each other so me and Lana pretty much grew up together. She’s very sweet and funny and I’ve always enjoyed hanging out with her.
I started dating Maya (19f) a year ago and she’s everything I’ve ever wanted. She’s kind, funny, beautiful, smart and just amazing. I’ve never been happier and I love her more than anything. The only issue is that Maya and Lana don’t really get along. They’ve had a few arguments and Lana has been talking about Maya to some of our friends. I’ve kinda distanced myself from Lana after the last argument because I didn’t like how she was talking to Maya and I’ve called her out on it before.
Maya’s family came to visit for the week and Maya’s little sister, Lisa (8f), has been wanting to see the new little mermaid movie. I bought tickets for the three of us to go see it today. I want to add that Maya and Lisa are black. Maya has been telling me that Lisa was excited to go see the movie because the actress is also black and Ariel is her favorite princess.
Lana hmu yesterday asking if we could hang out on Friday. She said we hadn’t hung out for a while and she missed spending time together. I said I was busy and couldn’t hang out. She asked me why and I told her I was going to the movies with Maya and Lisa. She asked if she could join and I didn’t really want to ask Maya because I didn’t want her to get upset. I ended up telling her and she said that Lana was welcome to come as long as she didn’t start anything.
I told Lana she could come and she was happy. She asked me what movie so she could buy tickets and I told her the little mermaid. She got upset and told me she didn’t want to go anymore. I asked her why and she said that Disney changed the movie so much and she didn’t want to see it. She told me it wasn’t her Ariel and that the actress hair wasn’t even red. I told her it was a kids movie and it isnt deep. I also said that we were only going for Lisa’s sake and there was no point in arguing about it. She got upset and asked if we could go to a different movie and I said no. I had already bought the tickets and I wasn’t gonna change plans because of her. She started going on a rampage about how bad the movie was gonna be and I got annoyed and called her immature and pathetic. She got upset and started crying. She told me I was only going to please Maya and didn’t care about her.
I told Maya about this and she said that Lana was being racist and didn’t want to watch the movie because Ariel is black. Lana got some of our other friends (we’re in the same friend group) involved and now a lot of them are mad and refuse to talk to me. I think Lana may have twisted the story but I don't wanna cause further issues by getting into that.
TL;DR - TIFU by calling my girl bsf pathetic and making her cry
submitted by ThrowRA928320 to tifu [link] [comments]
I started dating Maya (19f) a year ago and she’s everything I’ve ever wanted. She’s kind, funny, beautiful, smart and just amazing. I’ve never been happier and I love her more than anything. The only issue is that Maya and Lana don’t really get along. They’ve had a few arguments and Lana has been talking about Maya to some of our friends. I’ve kinda distanced myself from Lana after the last argument because I didn’t like how she was talking to Maya and I’ve called her out on it before.
Maya’s family came to visit for the week and Maya’s little sister, Lisa (8f), has been wanting to see the new little mermaid movie. I bought tickets for the three of us to go see it today. I want to add that Maya and Lisa are black. Maya has been telling me that Lisa was excited to go see the movie because the actress is also black and Ariel is her favorite princess.
Lana hmu yesterday asking if we could hang out on Friday. She said we hadn’t hung out for a while and she missed spending time together. I said I was busy and couldn’t hang out. She asked me why and I told her I was going to the movies with Maya and Lisa. She asked if she could join and I didn’t really want to ask Maya because I didn’t want her to get upset. I ended up telling her and she said that Lana was welcome to come as long as she didn’t start anything.
I told Lana she could come and she was happy. She asked me what movie so she could buy tickets and I told her the little mermaid. She got upset and told me she didn’t want to go anymore. I asked her why and she said that Disney changed the movie so much and she didn’t want to see it. She told me it wasn’t her Ariel and that the actress hair wasn’t even red. I told her it was a kids movie and it isnt deep. I also said that we were only going for Lisa’s sake and there was no point in arguing about it. She got upset and asked if we could go to a different movie and I said no. I had already bought the tickets and I wasn’t gonna change plans because of her. She started going on a rampage about how bad the movie was gonna be and I got annoyed and called her immature and pathetic. She got upset and started crying. She told me I was only going to please Maya and didn’t care about her.
I told Maya about this and she said that Lana was being racist and didn’t want to watch the movie because Ariel is black. Lana got some of our other friends (we’re in the same friend group) involved and now a lot of them are mad and refuse to talk to me. I think Lana may have twisted the story but I don't wanna cause further issues by getting into that.
TL;DR - TIFU by calling my girl bsf pathetic and making her cry
2023.06.02 23:45 Xetyou Well, found Dildo's happiness for the next week
 | submitted by Xetyou to DeathBattleMatchups [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:41 creding10 Stuck in Beta
I joined the beta after seeing an article that there may be an update with it that could solve a yellowish-green screen flicker on my Pixel 6 Pro. The beta did not solve it, and now Google support won't troubleshoot the screen flicker issue as I'm on a pre-release version of Android and need to go back to the stable release. However, opting out of the beta did not provide me with an update back to Android 13. I contacted Google support again to try to troubleshoot leaving the beta and they had me factory reset my phone twice over the course of a week and then told me that they actually can't troubleshoot it because I'm on a pre-release version of Android. Does anybody have anything that's worked for them to opt out of the beta? When I open the Android beta page, it tells me my Pixel 6 Pro is "not enrolled" and gives me an option to opt in, but my phone says it's currently up to date with Android version UpsideDownCake and Android security update April 5, 2023.
The build number I'm on is UPB2.230407.014.A1
Thanks
submitted by creding10 to android_beta [link] [comments]
The build number I'm on is UPB2.230407.014.A1
Thanks
2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:33 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:32 SteveTheAlpaca4 QC45 no PC audio unless I am in a voice call
Hi all, my QC45 are displaying as connected and currently playing audio from my PC, but no audio is coming through. For some reason this is resolved when I join a Zoom or Discord call, even if I then mute myself, every other app now has audio. It is not an issue of my phone playing audio (it shows the PC as the one playing audio), I have reset my headphones already, and my drivers are all up to date. I had a similar issue with an old laptop last year with these headphones, the only resolution being that I happened to get a new laptop. Any tips or solutions for this problem?
submitted by SteveTheAlpaca4 to bose [link] [comments]
2023.06.02 23:31 4shizupthespout bullying under the hands of boys
i left secondary school two years ago and vowed to never talk about what happened to me as i was so embarrassed and mortified by it all. i’m only now realising how severe it was and how much it affected me. i just want to share my story as maybe there are women out there who experienced something similar.
when i was twelve years old i rejected a boy in my class who asked me out. prior to this my school experiences were pretty normal - i had never experienced any bullying in my first year of secondary school and i felt friendly with everyone. after i politely rejected this boy, all hell broke loose. at first he seemed accepting of it and the following days after it happened, he left me alone and i assumed he’d moved on. a week or so later i was sitting in class when him and his friend passed me a note. in the note he was basically asking if i’d give him a blow job after school, to make up for me not wanting to date him. i was grossed out by this and shook my head at him and threw the note in the bin. this is what provoked everything.
for the next two years, until i was almost fifteen, him and his friends relentlessly bullied me - physically, verbally and sexually. it was their way at getting back at me for rejecting their friend. i was also painfully shy and quiet so they knew i was an easy target. the bullying started off with just the boy i rejected and his friend, and he gradually got more people in on it. the next school year i was put in different classes to him but he told his friends who shared classes with me to bully me for him. it was horrific. every single day i was tripped up, shoved, punched on my arm until i had bruises, cut with scissors, had my clothes cut, had chemicals poured on me, groped, verbally abused. this was carried out by his close friends, around four or five boys. they were extremely popular and everyone worshiped them. they were also very large and tough and i was scared of them, so i never stood up for myself. i remember one day, one of the boys was poking my legs and i smacked his hand away. a teacher walked up to me and said “i know boys can be annoying, but that’s no excuse to hit them” which only made the bullying worse as the boys knew they could get away with it. another time, after a lesson ended and my arms were black and blue, i walked up to my teacher on the verge of tears and asked if i could move seats as i was sat next to the bullies. the teacher told me no, even though he had witnessed everything.
the amount of anxiety and fear i felt in those two years were unbearable. i genuinely have no idea how i coped, i was so young. along with the bullying at school, i was being severely neglected at home and i basically had no parental figure. i was also bullied by my brother and i was trying to comprehend and recover from severe childhood trauma, whilst dealing with the trauma i was experiencing at home through my father. i had no safe space. i had friends at school but i was too embarrassed to tell them what was going on, so i kept it to myself and never told a soul. i would throw up everyday before school. my hair fell out, i couldn’t eat or sleep. everyday i would shake so viscerally i couldn’t even write. one time i was so scared before going to a lesson (that the bullies were in) that i almost fainted. i was terrified 24/7. i was too scared to leave my house as they’d harass me in public if they saw me. one time i went to a festival with a group of childhood friends and a few boys in the group were friends with one of my bullies. they harassed me all night and kicked me out of the tent, forcing me to sleep outside in the cold. it was relentless.
the bullying calmed down when i got to year 10 as i got put in a different side of the year. but i was still constantly terrified at school. if i saw one of the bullies in the hallway id hide and start shaking. even though i wasn’t being harassed anymore, i was still perpetually anxious and scared. halfway through the school year a group of boys joined the friendship group i was in. as the bullying i experienced was by boys, i became terrified of teenage boys. i ended up leaving my friendship group as the boys in the group would lightly tease me but i was so scarred by the bullying i faced that i couldn’t handle it and i left. i still didn’t go out to my town for years as i was scared i’d see my bullies around. i did see them a few times and i’d make eye contact with them, but honestly, i don’t think they even remembered me - even though i was traumatised by them.
i left school in 2021 and told myself that now i was away from it, i was to never speak of it again. i ran away from home in October 2021 and went to live with my mum. it hasn’t been until recently i’ve started to really think about what i went through. i told my mum about it and that was the first time i EVER told someone what i experienced during school. she cried as i relayed it all. i was so embarrassed by what i went through that i suppressed it. i blamed it on myself. i’m only now realising how severe it was, and how what i went through at school genuinely stunted and traumatised me without me realising. i also feel so angry as the boys who bullied me probably don’t remember what they put me through.
i see a lot of women talk about the bullying they faced during school however i’ve yet to see anyone who experienced something similar to me - bullying by the hands of boys due to rejection. i’m in a better place now and i have a boyfriend who treats me amazingly and is kind and gentle. i never thought i’d trust a boy again. but i still feel so tortured by what i went through. the fact i was already going through so much at that age breaks my heart even more. i have been so damaged and the two years i’ve been at my mums i have purely focused on healing. i also feel like i became more susceptible to bullying elsewhere. i got my first job last summer and my manager was really mean to me; i tolerated it and didn’t stand up for myself as i felt like it was my fault. the bullying i experienced in the past made me feel like there was something inherently wrong with me and i deserved to be mistreated. has anyone else experienced something similar?
teenage boys fucking suck.
submitted by 4shizupthespout to TwoXChromosomes [link] [comments]
when i was twelve years old i rejected a boy in my class who asked me out. prior to this my school experiences were pretty normal - i had never experienced any bullying in my first year of secondary school and i felt friendly with everyone. after i politely rejected this boy, all hell broke loose. at first he seemed accepting of it and the following days after it happened, he left me alone and i assumed he’d moved on. a week or so later i was sitting in class when him and his friend passed me a note. in the note he was basically asking if i’d give him a blow job after school, to make up for me not wanting to date him. i was grossed out by this and shook my head at him and threw the note in the bin. this is what provoked everything.
for the next two years, until i was almost fifteen, him and his friends relentlessly bullied me - physically, verbally and sexually. it was their way at getting back at me for rejecting their friend. i was also painfully shy and quiet so they knew i was an easy target. the bullying started off with just the boy i rejected and his friend, and he gradually got more people in on it. the next school year i was put in different classes to him but he told his friends who shared classes with me to bully me for him. it was horrific. every single day i was tripped up, shoved, punched on my arm until i had bruises, cut with scissors, had my clothes cut, had chemicals poured on me, groped, verbally abused. this was carried out by his close friends, around four or five boys. they were extremely popular and everyone worshiped them. they were also very large and tough and i was scared of them, so i never stood up for myself. i remember one day, one of the boys was poking my legs and i smacked his hand away. a teacher walked up to me and said “i know boys can be annoying, but that’s no excuse to hit them” which only made the bullying worse as the boys knew they could get away with it. another time, after a lesson ended and my arms were black and blue, i walked up to my teacher on the verge of tears and asked if i could move seats as i was sat next to the bullies. the teacher told me no, even though he had witnessed everything.
the amount of anxiety and fear i felt in those two years were unbearable. i genuinely have no idea how i coped, i was so young. along with the bullying at school, i was being severely neglected at home and i basically had no parental figure. i was also bullied by my brother and i was trying to comprehend and recover from severe childhood trauma, whilst dealing with the trauma i was experiencing at home through my father. i had no safe space. i had friends at school but i was too embarrassed to tell them what was going on, so i kept it to myself and never told a soul. i would throw up everyday before school. my hair fell out, i couldn’t eat or sleep. everyday i would shake so viscerally i couldn’t even write. one time i was so scared before going to a lesson (that the bullies were in) that i almost fainted. i was terrified 24/7. i was too scared to leave my house as they’d harass me in public if they saw me. one time i went to a festival with a group of childhood friends and a few boys in the group were friends with one of my bullies. they harassed me all night and kicked me out of the tent, forcing me to sleep outside in the cold. it was relentless.
the bullying calmed down when i got to year 10 as i got put in a different side of the year. but i was still constantly terrified at school. if i saw one of the bullies in the hallway id hide and start shaking. even though i wasn’t being harassed anymore, i was still perpetually anxious and scared. halfway through the school year a group of boys joined the friendship group i was in. as the bullying i experienced was by boys, i became terrified of teenage boys. i ended up leaving my friendship group as the boys in the group would lightly tease me but i was so scarred by the bullying i faced that i couldn’t handle it and i left. i still didn’t go out to my town for years as i was scared i’d see my bullies around. i did see them a few times and i’d make eye contact with them, but honestly, i don’t think they even remembered me - even though i was traumatised by them.
i left school in 2021 and told myself that now i was away from it, i was to never speak of it again. i ran away from home in October 2021 and went to live with my mum. it hasn’t been until recently i’ve started to really think about what i went through. i told my mum about it and that was the first time i EVER told someone what i experienced during school. she cried as i relayed it all. i was so embarrassed by what i went through that i suppressed it. i blamed it on myself. i’m only now realising how severe it was, and how what i went through at school genuinely stunted and traumatised me without me realising. i also feel so angry as the boys who bullied me probably don’t remember what they put me through.
i see a lot of women talk about the bullying they faced during school however i’ve yet to see anyone who experienced something similar to me - bullying by the hands of boys due to rejection. i’m in a better place now and i have a boyfriend who treats me amazingly and is kind and gentle. i never thought i’d trust a boy again. but i still feel so tortured by what i went through. the fact i was already going through so much at that age breaks my heart even more. i have been so damaged and the two years i’ve been at my mums i have purely focused on healing. i also feel like i became more susceptible to bullying elsewhere. i got my first job last summer and my manager was really mean to me; i tolerated it and didn’t stand up for myself as i felt like it was my fault. the bullying i experienced in the past made me feel like there was something inherently wrong with me and i deserved to be mistreated. has anyone else experienced something similar?
teenage boys fucking suck.
2023.06.02 23:16 MediaSLcom The Power Event – June 2023 Start Date: June 2, 2023 – End Date: June 22, 2023 Being powerful is what makes us different. 5000L$ Exclusive YOUTUBE Giveaway https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hyowp9h_deY WEBSITETELEPORT WEBSITETELEPORT ⭐ join Discord: https://discord.gg/xmHfRpD
 | submitted by MediaSLcom to SecondLifeVideos [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:16 CM_Archangel He has all the abilities of the Fantastic Four!? Check out Super Skrull's kit int he weekly blog here:
https://marvelstrikeforce.com/updates/blog-update-6-2-23
SUPER SKRULL AND DARK DIMENSION VI CELEBRATION
JUNE 2, 2023
Greetings Commanders,
Here's your Battle Plan for June 3rd through the 9th - all dates are Pacific Time:
June 4th - Orb Blitz
June 5th - Spoils of War - Battle in War - 2:00 PM (PDT)
June 5th - Sister Grimm - Blitz to earn Nico Minoru shards
June 5th - Ebony Maw Legendary Event (Repeating)
June 6th - To Infinity ECM
June 6th - Ruff Riffs - Open Intergalactic Orbs and Open Gold Orbs
June 6th - Battle of the Barks (WEB) - Earn Blitz Credits
June 7th - Strike Pass Season 35 featuring Gwenpool
June 8th - Star-Lord (Annihilation) character shards and Red Stars available
June 9th - Monster Mash Quick Rumble - Blitz with Dark Hunters
June 9th - Payday
DARK DIMENSION VI FIRST-CLEAR CELEBRATION
The next chapter in the epic Dark Dimension saga is rapidly approaching, with a target release date of June 27th at 5:00 PM (PDT)! Rewards have been improved compared to the previous Dark Dimensions to match the new challenge.
REQUIREMENTS
Dark Dimension VI nodes will require a full team of 5 characters per trait requirement, so you’ll eventually need at least 20 characters in total to complete it. This is the order in which the nodes will require the specific traits:
Missions 1-2: No trait restriction (any Gear Tier 18)
Missions 3-5: Global (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 6-8: Cosmic (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 9-11: City (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 12-13: Legendary (non-Horseman)
Missions 14-15: Legendary and/or Apocalypse
FIRST-CLEAR WINNER REWARDS
As with previous new chapters of Dark Dimension, there will be a huge celebration following the first player to complete Dark Dimension VI fully.
The winner will personally receive the following:
A promotion to 7 Red Star of an eligible character of their choice (from a list of eligible characters)
> This cannot include any character that currently does not have 7 Red Stars available, like Apocalypse.
The player’s name, representative of their personal profile, is immortalized in an in-game environment.
> The name will be decided in conjunction with the dev team, and a choice must be made within 7 business days of being contacted after completing Dark Dimension VI.
> The name must be appropriate for in-game use and should represent the player, not a 3rd party or a general statement.
> The dev team will choose the name if the above criteria are unmet.
The general player base will receive the following:
The winner will get to choose two characters to allow players to individually decide which one of them they can receive 100 character shards and a 5 Red Star promotion for.
> A list of eligible characters for the winner to choose from will be provided.
A community poll to determine two Blitzes that will be run based on the characters (non-Legendary, non-Apocalypse) that the Dark Dimension VI winner used to complete nodes.
> Any tampering with poll results, such as the usage of bots, will be disregarded in determining the winners.
Select “10 for 10” offers.
SUPER SKRULL
The Fantastic Four have faced many formidable foes, but few were as equally matched as Super Skrull. His real name is Kl’rt, a Skrullian warrior who was gifted the ability to emulate all the superpowers of the Fantastic Four. This makes Super Skrull an incredibly powerful Villain, able to challenge the strongest of Heroes.
The first completion of Dark Dimension VI will grant 310 character shards of Super Skrull (5 Yellow Stars) and a 2-Red Star promotion.
The second completion of Dark Dimension VI will grant 500 character shards of Super Skrull (to get to 7 Yellow Stars) and a 4-Red Star promotion.
Traits: Villain, Cosmic, Bio, Brawler
Speed: 124
Basic - Skrull Barrage
If the primary target has Exposed, clear all Barrier on the primary target.
Attack primary target for 400% Piercing + Chain to 3 adjacent target for 370% Piercing.
Flip 3 positive effects into negative effects on each target.
Gain Defense Up for 2 turns and Safeguard for 2 turns + Barrier self for 10% of this character's Max Health.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack ignores Defense Up.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Disrupted to each target.
This attack can Chain to Stealth targets. Counterattack breaks this Chain.
This attack gains +200% Extra Focus and is Unavoidable.
ISO - 8/Counter Attack/Assists:
If the primary target has Exposed, clear all Barrier on the primary target.
Attack primary target for 300% Piercing.
Flip 3 positive effects into negative effects on the primary target.
Barrier self for 10% of this character's Max Health.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack ignores Defense Up.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Disrupted.
This attack gains +200% Extra Focus.
Special - Bending Flames - Energy Cost: 3/3
Attack primary target for 450% damage + apply Exposed.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Ability Block for 2 turns to the primary target.
Attack primary and adjacent targets for 400% damage + reduce Speed Bar by 20% for each target.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, reduce Speed Bar for all targets by an additional 40%.
Clear Stealth on all enemies.
Gain the following positive effects:
> +2 Defense Up, up to a maximum of 5.
> +2 Offense Up, up to a maximum of 5.
> 3 Deflect.
> Immunity for 2 turns.
> Gain Stealth.
This attack gains +500% Extra Focus and cannot be blocked, dodged, or counterattacked.
Ultimate - Psionic Super Nova - Energy Cost: 3/6
Apply Trauma for 2 turns to the primary target.
Flip Defense Up on all enemies.
Attack all enemies for 700% Piercing + apply Heal Block for 3 turns and Offense Down for 2 turns.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack deals an additional +300% Piercing.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Trauma for 2 turns to all enemies.
Barrier self and all allies for 30% of this character's Max Health.
This attack gains +1,000% Extra Focus, is Unavoidable, and cannot be blocked or counterattacked.
Passive - Fantastic One
The first time this character falls under 50% Health, clear all negative effects from this character, heal self for 50% of this character's Max Health, and gain Stealth.
While this character has Stealth, allies gain +20% Damage Reduction.
On Stun, clear all Stun and apply Stun to the attacker.
When an enemy gains a positive effect or when this character or an ally gains a negative effect, heal self for 5% of this character's Max Health + fill this character's Speed Bar by 10%.
Lower Armor for all enemies by 25%.
Gain +50% Max Health. Allies gain +25% Max Health.
Gain +10% Damage and Focus + 10% for each HERO ally, up to a max of +50%.
Gain +10% Armor and Resistance + 10% for each VILLAIN ally, up to a max of +50%.
Enemies with Exposed cannot gain Safeguard, Deflect, or Evade. This does not prevent prolonging the duration of effects already on the target.
When an enemy with Exposed is attacked, this character attacks all enemies for 5% of this character's Max Health and Barrier this character for 5% of this character's Max Health.
TO INFINITY
Blast off on a quest to recruit Knowhere's ally-healing guard dog, Cosmo! Join the “bestest dog” in this upcoming Event Campaign Mission (ECM) as she leads Knowhere in a high-stakes standoff against a deadly threat.
Each node in the "To Infinity" Campaign rewards fragments for the Intergalactic Orb, which contains Cosmo character shards and certain characters with the limited-time Intergalactic trait (non-Legendary), which you can filter for in your roster. You'll need at least five characters with the limited-time "Intergalactic" trait to attempt the Heroic Difficulty, which also rewards Teal Gear.
The running time has been reduced from 14 days to 7 days, but the first-time rewards, Gold and gear node rewards, and the related Intergalactic Orb items have increased. This is to help streamline the experience and provide a more rewarding and focused daily experience.
In tandem, Korg's Intergalactic Tour is making a stop with the Ruff Riffs Event (details below) running for part of the ECM. The adventure begins on June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
KORG'S INTERGALACTIC TOUR EVENTS
SPOILS OF WAR
Nick Fury is calling in a supply strike, recruiting willing Commanders in your Alliance to battle in Alliance War. Big payloads of T2 Level 1 and Level 4 Ions, along with Iso-8 Orbs are up for grabs. Synchronize watches as the operation begins June 5th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
RUFF RIFFS
Grab your keytar as Cosmo is going To Infinity by laying down some sick tracks in this tandem event. Fetch and tear open Intergalactic Event Orbs and Gold Orbs to score the Ghost Stompers and a festival-sized stash of Rock Concert Tickets. You’ll also earn character shards for characters with the Intergalactic trait, Augmented Astral Energy, and T2 Level 4 Ions. Top Commanders on the Leaderboard will be rewarded with 7 Red Stars for Cosmo and T2 Level 5 Ions. The jams start June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
BATTLE OF THE BARKS WEB MILESTONE
Cyber support for Ruff Riffs will operate simultaneously and get even more Ruff Riffs milestone progress into your paws. Deploy your forces into Blitz to bring home as many Blitz Credits as possible to take advantage of the second prong in this attack on June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
STAR-LORD (ANNIHILATION) FLYING IN
The charismatic Knowhere Brawler with blinding dance moves is reporting for Alliance War action! You can blast off your Knowhere team when his character shards become available on June 8th at 2:00 PM (PDT) in the Elemental Gunslinger Orb for 675 Power Cores, which gives you a chance to earn up to 180 shards for Star-Lord (Annihilation).
You can also grab tons of Star-Lord (Annihilation) shards from his special offers in the Supplies Store. Upon your next game login after a purchase, you'll get backstage access to limited-time deals on Gold, Training Modules, and other resources to power him up.
Make sure to open Red Star Orbs starting on Star-Lord (Annihilation)'s release day, when he'll have an increased drop rate - signaled by the Inbox announcement.
MONSTER MASH
S.T.R.I.K.E. is elevating the ruthless Dark Hunters team to lead the charge in Blitz for the upcoming Quick Rumble. Claw, bite, and blast your way through waves of enemies to extract Rock Concert Tickets, Ability Materials for roster upgrades, and Blitz Credits. The melee begins on June 9th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
S.T.R.I.K.E. PASS
Get ready for Season 35 of S.T.R.I.K.E. Pass:
Start Date: June 7th at 2:00 PM (PDT)
Featured Reward: Gwenpool
CHARACTER AVAILABILITY
Firestar to the Basic Orb, Ultimus Orb, Mega Orb (replacing Magik), Premium Orb, and Supplies Store in the near future. Be on the lookout for an Inbox alerting you to this update.
ELITE STORE UPDATE
Gwenpool will soon be available to purchase Red Stars directly for Silver and Gold Promotion Credits.
FREE CLAIM FRIDAY
Jam out with this Friday Free Claim (available until June 3rd at 2:00 PM (PDT)) that'll help your progress in Stone Cold Spiders with Campaign Energy, Korg's Intergalactic Tour with Rock Concert Tickets, and give your Knowhere Support, Cosmo, the shard zoomies:
6,000 Rock Concert Tickets
100 Campaign Energy
5 Cosmo character shards
Until next time…
Good luck, Commanders!
**Please note that the information in this blog is subject to change before going live in the game.**
submitted by CM_Archangel to MarvelStrikeForce [link] [comments]
SUPER SKRULL AND DARK DIMENSION VI CELEBRATION
JUNE 2, 2023
Greetings Commanders,
Here's your Battle Plan for June 3rd through the 9th - all dates are Pacific Time:
June 4th - Orb Blitz
June 5th - Spoils of War - Battle in War - 2:00 PM (PDT)
June 5th - Sister Grimm - Blitz to earn Nico Minoru shards
June 5th - Ebony Maw Legendary Event (Repeating)
June 6th - To Infinity ECM
June 6th - Ruff Riffs - Open Intergalactic Orbs and Open Gold Orbs
June 6th - Battle of the Barks (WEB) - Earn Blitz Credits
June 7th - Strike Pass Season 35 featuring Gwenpool
June 8th - Star-Lord (Annihilation) character shards and Red Stars available
June 9th - Monster Mash Quick Rumble - Blitz with Dark Hunters
June 9th - Payday
DARK DIMENSION VI FIRST-CLEAR CELEBRATION
The next chapter in the epic Dark Dimension saga is rapidly approaching, with a target release date of June 27th at 5:00 PM (PDT)! Rewards have been improved compared to the previous Dark Dimensions to match the new challenge.
REQUIREMENTS
Dark Dimension VI nodes will require a full team of 5 characters per trait requirement, so you’ll eventually need at least 20 characters in total to complete it. This is the order in which the nodes will require the specific traits:
Missions 1-2: No trait restriction (any Gear Tier 18)
Missions 3-5: Global (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 6-8: Cosmic (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 9-11: City (Legendary EXCLUDED)
Missions 12-13: Legendary (non-Horseman)
Missions 14-15: Legendary and/or Apocalypse
FIRST-CLEAR WINNER REWARDS
As with previous new chapters of Dark Dimension, there will be a huge celebration following the first player to complete Dark Dimension VI fully.
The winner will personally receive the following:
A promotion to 7 Red Star of an eligible character of their choice (from a list of eligible characters)
> This cannot include any character that currently does not have 7 Red Stars available, like Apocalypse.
The player’s name, representative of their personal profile, is immortalized in an in-game environment.
> The name will be decided in conjunction with the dev team, and a choice must be made within 7 business days of being contacted after completing Dark Dimension VI.
> The name must be appropriate for in-game use and should represent the player, not a 3rd party or a general statement.
> The dev team will choose the name if the above criteria are unmet.
The general player base will receive the following:
The winner will get to choose two characters to allow players to individually decide which one of them they can receive 100 character shards and a 5 Red Star promotion for.
> A list of eligible characters for the winner to choose from will be provided.
A community poll to determine two Blitzes that will be run based on the characters (non-Legendary, non-Apocalypse) that the Dark Dimension VI winner used to complete nodes.
> Any tampering with poll results, such as the usage of bots, will be disregarded in determining the winners.
Select “10 for 10” offers.
SUPER SKRULL
The Fantastic Four have faced many formidable foes, but few were as equally matched as Super Skrull. His real name is Kl’rt, a Skrullian warrior who was gifted the ability to emulate all the superpowers of the Fantastic Four. This makes Super Skrull an incredibly powerful Villain, able to challenge the strongest of Heroes.
The first completion of Dark Dimension VI will grant 310 character shards of Super Skrull (5 Yellow Stars) and a 2-Red Star promotion.
The second completion of Dark Dimension VI will grant 500 character shards of Super Skrull (to get to 7 Yellow Stars) and a 4-Red Star promotion.
Traits: Villain, Cosmic, Bio, Brawler
Speed: 124
Basic - Skrull Barrage
If the primary target has Exposed, clear all Barrier on the primary target.
Attack primary target for 400% Piercing + Chain to 3 adjacent target for 370% Piercing.
Flip 3 positive effects into negative effects on each target.
Gain Defense Up for 2 turns and Safeguard for 2 turns + Barrier self for 10% of this character's Max Health.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack ignores Defense Up.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Disrupted to each target.
This attack can Chain to Stealth targets. Counterattack breaks this Chain.
This attack gains +200% Extra Focus and is Unavoidable.
ISO - 8/Counter Attack/Assists:
If the primary target has Exposed, clear all Barrier on the primary target.
Attack primary target for 300% Piercing.
Flip 3 positive effects into negative effects on the primary target.
Barrier self for 10% of this character's Max Health.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack ignores Defense Up.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Disrupted.
This attack gains +200% Extra Focus.
Special - Bending Flames - Energy Cost: 3/3
Attack primary target for 450% damage + apply Exposed.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Ability Block for 2 turns to the primary target.
Attack primary and adjacent targets for 400% damage + reduce Speed Bar by 20% for each target.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, reduce Speed Bar for all targets by an additional 40%.
Clear Stealth on all enemies.
Gain the following positive effects:
> +2 Defense Up, up to a maximum of 5.
> +2 Offense Up, up to a maximum of 5.
> 3 Deflect.
> Immunity for 2 turns.
> Gain Stealth.
This attack gains +500% Extra Focus and cannot be blocked, dodged, or counterattacked.
Ultimate - Psionic Super Nova - Energy Cost: 3/6
Apply Trauma for 2 turns to the primary target.
Flip Defense Up on all enemies.
Attack all enemies for 700% Piercing + apply Heal Block for 3 turns and Offense Down for 2 turns.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more VILLAIN allies, this attack deals an additional +300% Piercing.
If this character spawned with or has 2 or more HERO allies, apply Trauma for 2 turns to all enemies.
Barrier self and all allies for 30% of this character's Max Health.
This attack gains +1,000% Extra Focus, is Unavoidable, and cannot be blocked or counterattacked.
Passive - Fantastic One
The first time this character falls under 50% Health, clear all negative effects from this character, heal self for 50% of this character's Max Health, and gain Stealth.
While this character has Stealth, allies gain +20% Damage Reduction.
On Stun, clear all Stun and apply Stun to the attacker.
When an enemy gains a positive effect or when this character or an ally gains a negative effect, heal self for 5% of this character's Max Health + fill this character's Speed Bar by 10%.
Lower Armor for all enemies by 25%.
Gain +50% Max Health. Allies gain +25% Max Health.
Gain +10% Damage and Focus + 10% for each HERO ally, up to a max of +50%.
Gain +10% Armor and Resistance + 10% for each VILLAIN ally, up to a max of +50%.
Enemies with Exposed cannot gain Safeguard, Deflect, or Evade. This does not prevent prolonging the duration of effects already on the target.
When an enemy with Exposed is attacked, this character attacks all enemies for 5% of this character's Max Health and Barrier this character for 5% of this character's Max Health.
TO INFINITY
Blast off on a quest to recruit Knowhere's ally-healing guard dog, Cosmo! Join the “bestest dog” in this upcoming Event Campaign Mission (ECM) as she leads Knowhere in a high-stakes standoff against a deadly threat.
Each node in the "To Infinity" Campaign rewards fragments for the Intergalactic Orb, which contains Cosmo character shards and certain characters with the limited-time Intergalactic trait (non-Legendary), which you can filter for in your roster. You'll need at least five characters with the limited-time "Intergalactic" trait to attempt the Heroic Difficulty, which also rewards Teal Gear.
The running time has been reduced from 14 days to 7 days, but the first-time rewards, Gold and gear node rewards, and the related Intergalactic Orb items have increased. This is to help streamline the experience and provide a more rewarding and focused daily experience.
In tandem, Korg's Intergalactic Tour is making a stop with the Ruff Riffs Event (details below) running for part of the ECM. The adventure begins on June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
KORG'S INTERGALACTIC TOUR EVENTS
SPOILS OF WAR
Nick Fury is calling in a supply strike, recruiting willing Commanders in your Alliance to battle in Alliance War. Big payloads of T2 Level 1 and Level 4 Ions, along with Iso-8 Orbs are up for grabs. Synchronize watches as the operation begins June 5th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
RUFF RIFFS
Grab your keytar as Cosmo is going To Infinity by laying down some sick tracks in this tandem event. Fetch and tear open Intergalactic Event Orbs and Gold Orbs to score the Ghost Stompers and a festival-sized stash of Rock Concert Tickets. You’ll also earn character shards for characters with the Intergalactic trait, Augmented Astral Energy, and T2 Level 4 Ions. Top Commanders on the Leaderboard will be rewarded with 7 Red Stars for Cosmo and T2 Level 5 Ions. The jams start June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
BATTLE OF THE BARKS WEB MILESTONE
Cyber support for Ruff Riffs will operate simultaneously and get even more Ruff Riffs milestone progress into your paws. Deploy your forces into Blitz to bring home as many Blitz Credits as possible to take advantage of the second prong in this attack on June 6th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
STAR-LORD (ANNIHILATION) FLYING IN
The charismatic Knowhere Brawler with blinding dance moves is reporting for Alliance War action! You can blast off your Knowhere team when his character shards become available on June 8th at 2:00 PM (PDT) in the Elemental Gunslinger Orb for 675 Power Cores, which gives you a chance to earn up to 180 shards for Star-Lord (Annihilation).
You can also grab tons of Star-Lord (Annihilation) shards from his special offers in the Supplies Store. Upon your next game login after a purchase, you'll get backstage access to limited-time deals on Gold, Training Modules, and other resources to power him up.
Make sure to open Red Star Orbs starting on Star-Lord (Annihilation)'s release day, when he'll have an increased drop rate - signaled by the Inbox announcement.
MONSTER MASH
S.T.R.I.K.E. is elevating the ruthless Dark Hunters team to lead the charge in Blitz for the upcoming Quick Rumble. Claw, bite, and blast your way through waves of enemies to extract Rock Concert Tickets, Ability Materials for roster upgrades, and Blitz Credits. The melee begins on June 9th at 2:00 PM (PDT).
S.T.R.I.K.E. PASS
Get ready for Season 35 of S.T.R.I.K.E. Pass:
Start Date: June 7th at 2:00 PM (PDT)
Featured Reward: Gwenpool
CHARACTER AVAILABILITY
Firestar to the Basic Orb, Ultimus Orb, Mega Orb (replacing Magik), Premium Orb, and Supplies Store in the near future. Be on the lookout for an Inbox alerting you to this update.
ELITE STORE UPDATE
Gwenpool will soon be available to purchase Red Stars directly for Silver and Gold Promotion Credits.
FREE CLAIM FRIDAY
Jam out with this Friday Free Claim (available until June 3rd at 2:00 PM (PDT)) that'll help your progress in Stone Cold Spiders with Campaign Energy, Korg's Intergalactic Tour with Rock Concert Tickets, and give your Knowhere Support, Cosmo, the shard zoomies:
6,000 Rock Concert Tickets
100 Campaign Energy
5 Cosmo character shards
Until next time…
Good luck, Commanders!
**Please note that the information in this blog is subject to change before going live in the game.**
2023.06.02 23:08 -343-Guilty-Spark- Bonus Bonanza
https://www.halowaypoint.com/news/bonus-bonanza
Header Image [Imgur]
Welcome to June. We are officially half-way through The Year of Our Arbiter 2023—isn't the passage of time terrifying!
Let’s get you caught up on all the latest happenings in the worlds of Halo, from Season 4: Infection news, an upcoming bonus XP weekend, getting your own Husky Raid maps into matchmaking, MCC modding, HCS DreamHack Dallas, and much more...
Looking to finish up that Battle Pass before Season 4: Infection arrives later this month? Bonus XP has come to Halo Infinite to help you out.
Alongside the HCS Global Invitational at DreamHack Dallas, spanning June 2 through to 10AM on June 5, you can earn bonus XP for completed matches in Halo Infinite.
COMMUNITY DOUBLES MAPS
This week, the Community Doubles playlist arrived in Halo Infinite and we’ve added four new community-made Forge maps for you and your partner. Jump in to test the strength of your teamwork and skill.
The maps added are Daimyo, Arrival, Dead Water, and Last Broadcast.
SPARTAN CHATTER
Halo Infinite concept art for the Infection mode showing three Spartans infected by Iratus
“Spartan Chatter” is a new avenue we are exploring to provide direct updates to the Halo community through the Discord Stage feature on the official Halo server.
In our latest episode, Sean Baron, Head of Halo Infinite Live Service, stopped by to answer community questions, discuss player customization, and share new details on what to expect when Season 4 arrives on June 20—including Infection and Career Rank.
MAY UPDATE
On May 10, an update was released to address various community-requested quality-of-life improvements, sandbox tuning updates, and bug fixes, featuring developer commentary to break down each of these elements in further detail.
This blog details updates to modes (such as Super Fiesta’s addition of the campaign’s unique weapon and Equipment variants), sandbox balance tuning (including changes to the Disruptor, as well as Spike and Dynamo Grenades), Forge updates, and more.
HALO INFINITE MAY UPDATE
INTEL
The Season 3 run of Intel data drops came to a close this week, providing some additional lore and context to certain narrative elements of the season—from Spartan Dinh’s backstory, to Created activity on some of the new maps, and disruptions caused by Iratus.
HALO INFINITE ECHOES WITHIN INTEL
FRACTURE: FIREWALL & PRECIPICE
Fracture: FIREWALL key art depicting an army of Executors in a human city with High Auxiliary Sloan displayed on a building and a Guardian in the background
The Fracture: FIREWALL event will return one last time on June 13, giving you a final opportunity to earn customization rewards for your CHIMERA armor as part of the free 20-tier Event Pass and claim your FIREWALL Logo Pin as part of Season 3’s Halo Gear Rewards.
Alongside that, the accompanying Precipice Story Shard series will also conclude when the event returns. In the latest chapter, High Auxiliary Sloan has learned of the Assembly—a clandestine cabal of AIs we discovered in data pads back in Halo: Reach. What does this uncovered mystery mean for the future of the Created?
STORY SHARD: PRECIPICE
FORGE FEATURES & HUSKY RAID
Wanna get your maps into matchmaking? Well, we’re on the lookout for your best Husky Raid arenas as we look to bring the fan-favorite mode to Halo Infinite.
If you’re feeling up to the creative challenge, you can start your map from scratch, or if you’re looking for some prefab templates you can download and utilize these in the creation of your Husky Raid map.
Once you feel your map is ready to be published, don’t forget to tag it with 343ask-HuskyRaid and be sure to include a screenshot. Have ‘em ready for June 30!
For more information (and a showcase of more amazing community maps), check out our latest issue of Forge Features.
FORGE FEATURES 012
SHOP & ULTIMATE REWARD
Complete all of your challenges this week in order to unlock the Ultimate Reward: the Orchid Cluster visor.
Halo Infinite image of the Orchid Cluster visor [Imgur]
And head over to the Shop to grab the Synthetic Dawn bundle, featuring the following items for your CHIMERA armor:
UNITY
Happy Pride Month, Spartans! LGBTQIA+ Pride Month is a global celebration of self, identity, love, and freedom to be who we are. In the words of Steve Downes, the voice of Master Chief himself: A Spartan's job is to fight for all of humanity. We're all stronger together, celebrating the things that make us unique as the foundation of our community.
Log in to Halo Infinite and MCC at any time during the month of June and you’ll receive the free Unity emblem and nameplate in each respective game.
Image of the Halo Infinite and MCC Unity emblems for Pride Month [Imgur]
In case you missed it, we’ve been spotlighting a bunch of community-made mods for MCC.
We released our first issue back in April, where we looked at the likes of Cursed Halo Again, Halo 3: Combat Evolved, Halo 2 Uncut, Ultimate Forge, and more.
In May, we jumped feet-first into Flood-infected city streets. We unleashed mayhem on Sandtrap, battling against hordes of enemy AI—even the Didact and Gravemind showed up to the party! We saw Halo reimagined in Minecraft, and we fought the most terrifying boss of all... the Halo 3 rat.
HALO: MCC MOD SPOTLIGHT: MAY 2023
Banner for HCS DreamHack Dallas 2023
With online competition complete in split 1, we have determined who will be participating in the HCS Global Invitational at Dreamhack Dallas from June 2-4.
The top 16 teams (10-NA, 4-EU, 1-MX, 1-ANZ) based on HCS points from all events year to-date will be competing for their slice of the $125K prize pool.
Catch all the action, including your chance to earn new Twitch Drops, by watching Twitch.tv/Halo.
Learn more by visiting halo.gg and by following HCS on Twitter!
For you fine folks who are heading over to HCS DreamHack Dallas this weekend, you’ll be able to get hands-on with some Season 4: Infection content coming to Halo Infinite on June 20.
For those of you at home, tune into the stream to get all the event exclusive news on Season 4. Whether we’re seeing you in chat or at the event itself, we hope you’re ready to go once more unto the breach for an exciting weekend of competitive Halo (featuring the new Ember Hex weapon coating Twitch Drops).
Halo Infinite image of the Ember Hex weapon coating
Celebrate and show your support with the new 2023 PRIDE collection in the Xbox Gear Shop!
Image of 2023 Xbox Pride t-shirts
DR. SQUATCH x HALO
We partnered again with our friends at Dr. Squatch to re-release the legendary Halo Spartan Scrub and introduce the Spartan Shield deodorant. Hopefully, you were able to snag the new Spartan Shield deodorant before they sold out! If not, stay tuned for more availability later this year.
There’s still time to secure the Spartan Scrub and receive a code to unlock the exclusive Smellbringer Armor Coatings.
Head over to Halo x Dr. Squatch!
Image of Spartan Shield Deodorant from the 2023 Halo x Dr. Squatch partnership
HALO: EPITAPH
In May, we revealed the cover art for Halo: Epitaph, illustrated by Chris McGrath.
Halo: Epitaph is the next novel by Kelly Gay, which will explore the final fate of the Didact in the wake of his defeat at the end of Halo 4 —and his subsequent composition in the Halo: Escalation comic series.
Scheduled for release on January 2, 2024, stay tuned for chapter previews later this year!
PRE-ORDER HALO: EPITAPH
Stripped of armor, might, and memory, the Forerunner warrior known as the Didact was torn from the physical world following his destructive confrontation with the Master Chief and sent reeling into the mysterious depths of a seemingly endless desert wasteland. This once powerful and terrifying figure is now a shadow of his former self—gaunt, broken, desiccated, and alone. But this wasteland is not as barren as it seems. A blue light glints from a thin spire in the far distance…
Thus begins the Didact’s great journey—the final fate of one of the galaxy’s most enigmatic and pivotal figures.
Cover art of Halo: Epitaph by Chris McGrath depicting the hooded figure of the Didact with half a broken helmet in a desert environment, the tower of Halo 3's map Epitaph in the background
When the San’Shyuum landed on the desolate world of Ulgethon, a planet that appeared entirely uninhabited, the first pioneer detachment identified a repository of Forerunner relics. Upon arriving at the site, however, they found it inhabited by the Sangheili, and they spoke with their leader—an Arbiter known as Vema ‘Togad, who would come to be known as the Prophet’s Bane.
After learning of their intentions to excavate the ancient relics, ‘Togad slaughtered the San’Shyuum delegation and sent their severed heads back to the Anodyne Spirit as a warning. And so, the War of Beginnings erupted, with the San’Shyuum taking their dreadnought to the skies where it was met by a blockade of Sangheili ships, which is the scene depicted in the artwork below.
You can learn more about this fascinating period of early Covenant history in the Halo 2: Anniversary Terminals, the novel Halo: Broken Circle, and in the 2022 edition of the Halo Encyclopedia.
Halo Mythos art by David Heidhoff showing the War of Beginnings between the Sangheili and San'Shyuum on the world of Ulgethon [Imgur]
That brings us to the end of this Community Update.
Get started on those Husky Raid maps, check out some fantastic MCC mods, tune into the HCS stream this weekend, earn some bonus XP in Halo Infinite to round off your Battle Pass, and carve out some time in your calendar for January 2024 to reunite with the Didact in the Domain.
And, of course, prepare yourself for the wrath of Iratus when Season 4 arrives on June 20. The anticipation has been, shall we say... infectious.
This post was made by a script written and maintained by the Halo mod team to automatically post blogs from Halo Waypoint. If you notice any issues with the text output or think this was posted by mistake, please message the mods.
submitted by -343-Guilty-Spark- to halo [link] [comments]
Welcome to June. We are officially half-way through The Year of Our Arbiter 2023—isn't the passage of time terrifying!
Let’s get you caught up on all the latest happenings in the worlds of Halo, from Season 4: Infection news, an upcoming bonus XP weekend, getting your own Husky Raid maps into matchmaking, MCC modding, HCS DreamHack Dallas, and much more...
HALO INFINITE
BONUS XP WEEKEND INBOUNDLooking to finish up that Battle Pass before Season 4: Infection arrives later this month? Bonus XP has come to Halo Infinite to help you out.
Alongside the HCS Global Invitational at DreamHack Dallas, spanning June 2 through to 10AM on June 5, you can earn bonus XP for completed matches in Halo Infinite.
COMMUNITY DOUBLES MAPS
This week, the Community Doubles playlist arrived in Halo Infinite and we’ve added four new community-made Forge maps for you and your partner. Jump in to test the strength of your teamwork and skill.
The maps added are Daimyo, Arrival, Dead Water, and Last Broadcast.
SPARTAN CHATTER
Halo Infinite concept art for the Infection mode showing three Spartans infected by Iratus
“Spartan Chatter” is a new avenue we are exploring to provide direct updates to the Halo community through the Discord Stage feature on the official Halo server.
In our latest episode, Sean Baron, Head of Halo Infinite Live Service, stopped by to answer community questions, discuss player customization, and share new details on what to expect when Season 4 arrives on June 20—including Infection and Career Rank.
MAY UPDATE
On May 10, an update was released to address various community-requested quality-of-life improvements, sandbox tuning updates, and bug fixes, featuring developer commentary to break down each of these elements in further detail.
This blog details updates to modes (such as Super Fiesta’s addition of the campaign’s unique weapon and Equipment variants), sandbox balance tuning (including changes to the Disruptor, as well as Spike and Dynamo Grenades), Forge updates, and more.
HALO INFINITE MAY UPDATE
INTEL
The Season 3 run of Intel data drops came to a close this week, providing some additional lore and context to certain narrative elements of the season—from Spartan Dinh’s backstory, to Created activity on some of the new maps, and disruptions caused by Iratus.
HALO INFINITE ECHOES WITHIN INTEL
FRACTURE: FIREWALL & PRECIPICE
Fracture: FIREWALL key art depicting an army of Executors in a human city with High Auxiliary Sloan displayed on a building and a Guardian in the background
The Fracture: FIREWALL event will return one last time on June 13, giving you a final opportunity to earn customization rewards for your CHIMERA armor as part of the free 20-tier Event Pass and claim your FIREWALL Logo Pin as part of Season 3’s Halo Gear Rewards.
Alongside that, the accompanying Precipice Story Shard series will also conclude when the event returns. In the latest chapter, High Auxiliary Sloan has learned of the Assembly—a clandestine cabal of AIs we discovered in data pads back in Halo: Reach. What does this uncovered mystery mean for the future of the Created?
STORY SHARD: PRECIPICE
FORGE FEATURES & HUSKY RAID
Wanna get your maps into matchmaking? Well, we’re on the lookout for your best Husky Raid arenas as we look to bring the fan-favorite mode to Halo Infinite.
If you’re feeling up to the creative challenge, you can start your map from scratch, or if you’re looking for some prefab templates you can download and utilize these in the creation of your Husky Raid map.
Once you feel your map is ready to be published, don’t forget to tag it with 343ask-HuskyRaid and be sure to include a screenshot. Have ‘em ready for June 30!
For more information (and a showcase of more amazing community maps), check out our latest issue of Forge Features.
FORGE FEATURES 012
SHOP & ULTIMATE REWARD
Complete all of your challenges this week in order to unlock the Ultimate Reward: the Orchid Cluster visor.
Halo Infinite image of the Orchid Cluster visor [Imgur]
And head over to the Shop to grab the Synthetic Dawn bundle, featuring the following items for your CHIMERA armor:
- Noob Cube stance
- Flayer Crysknife shoulders
- Synthetic Dawn armor effect
- Flayed Nerve armor coating
UNITY
Happy Pride Month, Spartans! LGBTQIA+ Pride Month is a global celebration of self, identity, love, and freedom to be who we are. In the words of Steve Downes, the voice of Master Chief himself: A Spartan's job is to fight for all of humanity. We're all stronger together, celebrating the things that make us unique as the foundation of our community.
Log in to Halo Infinite and MCC at any time during the month of June and you’ll receive the free Unity emblem and nameplate in each respective game.
Image of the Halo Infinite and MCC Unity emblems for Pride Month [Imgur]
MCC
Modtacular header showcasing eight community Halo modsIn case you missed it, we’ve been spotlighting a bunch of community-made mods for MCC.
We released our first issue back in April, where we looked at the likes of Cursed Halo Again, Halo 3: Combat Evolved, Halo 2 Uncut, Ultimate Forge, and more.
In May, we jumped feet-first into Flood-infected city streets. We unleashed mayhem on Sandtrap, battling against hordes of enemy AI—even the Didact and Gravemind showed up to the party! We saw Halo reimagined in Minecraft, and we fought the most terrifying boss of all... the Halo 3 rat.
HALO: MCC MOD SPOTLIGHT: MAY 2023
HALO ESPORTS
HCS GLOBAL INVITATIONAL AT DREAMHACK DALLASBanner for HCS DreamHack Dallas 2023
With online competition complete in split 1, we have determined who will be participating in the HCS Global Invitational at Dreamhack Dallas from June 2-4.
The top 16 teams (10-NA, 4-EU, 1-MX, 1-ANZ) based on HCS points from all events year to-date will be competing for their slice of the $125K prize pool.
Catch all the action, including your chance to earn new Twitch Drops, by watching Twitch.tv/Halo.
Learn more by visiting halo.gg and by following HCS on Twitter!
For you fine folks who are heading over to HCS DreamHack Dallas this weekend, you’ll be able to get hands-on with some Season 4: Infection content coming to Halo Infinite on June 20.
For those of you at home, tune into the stream to get all the event exclusive news on Season 4. Whether we’re seeing you in chat or at the event itself, we hope you’re ready to go once more unto the breach for an exciting weekend of competitive Halo (featuring the new Ember Hex weapon coating Twitch Drops).
Halo Infinite image of the Ember Hex weapon coating
HALO GEAR
PRIDE 2023 - HALO GEAR SHOPCelebrate and show your support with the new 2023 PRIDE collection in the Xbox Gear Shop!
Image of 2023 Xbox Pride t-shirts
DR. SQUATCH x HALO
We partnered again with our friends at Dr. Squatch to re-release the legendary Halo Spartan Scrub and introduce the Spartan Shield deodorant. Hopefully, you were able to snag the new Spartan Shield deodorant before they sold out! If not, stay tuned for more availability later this year.
There’s still time to secure the Spartan Scrub and receive a code to unlock the exclusive Smellbringer Armor Coatings.
Head over to Halo x Dr. Squatch!
Image of Spartan Shield Deodorant from the 2023 Halo x Dr. Squatch partnership
HALO: EPITAPH
In May, we revealed the cover art for Halo: Epitaph, illustrated by Chris McGrath.
Halo: Epitaph is the next novel by Kelly Gay, which will explore the final fate of the Didact in the wake of his defeat at the end of Halo 4 —and his subsequent composition in the Halo: Escalation comic series.
Scheduled for release on January 2, 2024, stay tuned for chapter previews later this year!
PRE-ORDER HALO: EPITAPH
Thus begins the Didact’s great journey—the final fate of one of the galaxy’s most enigmatic and pivotal figures.
Cover art of Halo: Epitaph by Chris McGrath depicting the hooded figure of the Didact with half a broken helmet in a desert environment, the tower of Halo 3's map Epitaph in the background
RADAR BLIPS
- CANON FODDER – DIDACT'S DELIGHTS: In the May edition of Canon Fodder, we take a closer look at the cover art of Kelly Gay’s upcoming novel, Halo: Epitaph, featuring the return of the Didact, and dive into some other lore goodness.
- COMMUNITY CORNER – MOTOSTREAMS: In our latest Community Corner issue, we're joined by Moto Streams to learn about her history with Halo over the years and how she cultivated one of the most wholesome streaming communities out there!
- WAYPOINT APP SUNSETTING: The Halo Waypoint app for iOS and Android platforms will officially be sunset on June 7, 2023. The Halo Waypoint website on mobile and desktop will remain the home for Halo game service records, file shares, leaderboards, franchise news, HCS, code redemption, and more.
THE ARTIST’S CORNER
This month’s piece from The Artist’s Corner is an illustration by David Heidhoff from Halo Mythos, depicting the Desecration of Ulgethon—a first contact encounter that would ignite decades of conflict between the Sangheili and San’Shyuum known as the War of Beginnings.When the San’Shyuum landed on the desolate world of Ulgethon, a planet that appeared entirely uninhabited, the first pioneer detachment identified a repository of Forerunner relics. Upon arriving at the site, however, they found it inhabited by the Sangheili, and they spoke with their leader—an Arbiter known as Vema ‘Togad, who would come to be known as the Prophet’s Bane.
After learning of their intentions to excavate the ancient relics, ‘Togad slaughtered the San’Shyuum delegation and sent their severed heads back to the Anodyne Spirit as a warning. And so, the War of Beginnings erupted, with the San’Shyuum taking their dreadnought to the skies where it was met by a blockade of Sangheili ships, which is the scene depicted in the artwork below.
You can learn more about this fascinating period of early Covenant history in the Halo 2: Anniversary Terminals, the novel Halo: Broken Circle, and in the 2022 edition of the Halo Encyclopedia.
Halo Mythos art by David Heidhoff showing the War of Beginnings between the Sangheili and San'Shyuum on the world of Ulgethon [Imgur]
Get started on those Husky Raid maps, check out some fantastic MCC mods, tune into the HCS stream this weekend, earn some bonus XP in Halo Infinite to round off your Battle Pass, and carve out some time in your calendar for January 2024 to reunite with the Didact in the Domain.
And, of course, prepare yourself for the wrath of Iratus when Season 4 arrives on June 20. The anticipation has been, shall we say... infectious.
2023.06.02 23:08 Inconspicuous-Dog Scrolled by this really quickly and thought it was Peggy on the add
Happy pride month
submitted by Inconspicuous-Dog to jpegmafia [link] [comments]
2023.06.02 22:58 Fantastic-Cup8076 Taylor announces international dates for Latam!
| | submitted by Fantastic-Cup8076 to u/Fantastic-Cup8076 [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 22:47 Fantastic-Cup8076 Taylor announces international dates for Latam!
| | submitted by Fantastic-Cup8076 to u/Fantastic-Cup8076 [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 22:43 Pepper-Prolink Hiring - Manufacturing Execution System Engineer - Birmingham AL
LinkedIn Job Post
About the job
The client cannot consider a candidate that requires visa sponsorship now or in the future.
Are you an experienced MES Engineer looking for a new challenge in the manufacturing industry? Our client in Birmingham, AL, has an exciting opportunity for you!
As an MES Engineer, you will be responsible for developing and maintaining critical solutions that enhance user experience and integrate with the ERP system to provide seamless data transition. You will leverage real-time data to drive actionable intelligence and collaborate cross-functionally to deliver technical solutions that drive the business forward.
To be considered for this position, you should have at least 3-5 years of experience in the continuous improvement of manufacturing business processes and Manufacturing Execution System projects, as well as 3-5 years of programming experience. You should also have a strong background in project management, system integration, and object-oriented software design.
Program: Janus. Rodeo: MES. ERP: Microsoft Dynamics 365
The preferred qualifications include a Bachelor's degree in Network Administration, Information Technology, Information Management, MIS, Computer Science, Engineering, or CIS, or at least 3 years of relevant experience. You should also have up-to-date knowledge of new systems, information, software, and upgrades and an understanding of IT security and network risks.
Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to take your career to the next level. Apply now and join our client's team in Birmingham, AL!
submitted by Pepper-Prolink to EngineeringJobs [link] [comments]
About the job
The client cannot consider a candidate that requires visa sponsorship now or in the future.
Are you an experienced MES Engineer looking for a new challenge in the manufacturing industry? Our client in Birmingham, AL, has an exciting opportunity for you!
As an MES Engineer, you will be responsible for developing and maintaining critical solutions that enhance user experience and integrate with the ERP system to provide seamless data transition. You will leverage real-time data to drive actionable intelligence and collaborate cross-functionally to deliver technical solutions that drive the business forward.
To be considered for this position, you should have at least 3-5 years of experience in the continuous improvement of manufacturing business processes and Manufacturing Execution System projects, as well as 3-5 years of programming experience. You should also have a strong background in project management, system integration, and object-oriented software design.
Program: Janus. Rodeo: MES. ERP: Microsoft Dynamics 365
The preferred qualifications include a Bachelor's degree in Network Administration, Information Technology, Information Management, MIS, Computer Science, Engineering, or CIS, or at least 3 years of relevant experience. You should also have up-to-date knowledge of new systems, information, software, and upgrades and an understanding of IT security and network risks.
Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to take your career to the next level. Apply now and join our client's team in Birmingham, AL!
2023.06.02 22:37 pillowchamp0072 31 [M4F] looking for someone to go to Re:SET at Stanford tonight
I'm absolutely pumped for Re:SET tonight at Stanford. Jamie XX, LCD Soundsystem concert, and I'm on the lookout for an incredible girl to join me on this amazing adventure.
Here are the deets:
Artist: Jamie xx
Ticket: VIP (special access, and exclusive perks!)
Date: tonight
Location: Frost Amphitheater
I just want to enjoy the concert with an awesome companion! If you’re interested let me know!
submitted by pillowchamp0072 to sjr4r [link] [comments]
Here are the deets:
Artist: Jamie xx
Ticket: VIP (special access, and exclusive perks!)
Date: tonight
Location: Frost Amphitheater
I just want to enjoy the concert with an awesome companion! If you’re interested let me know!
2023.06.02 22:24 Wizxrd1884 Repulsivee is Recruiting!!!
Evening All,
We are recruiting into our ever expanding and fast growing clan in Destiny 2.
https://discord.gg/bAD6chd8 JOIN THE DISCORD FOR A EVER EVOLVING AND ACTIVE CLAN
we are looking for anyone who either casually enjoys the game or decides that touching grass isn't for them and destiny is your only source of life.
We have a vast range of different skill types and mastery in all areas of content in the game, and anyone that is completely new to the game is always welcome.
Some of our favorites to help and play are:
Trials of Osiris
MasteNormal Raids:Dungeons
Grandmaster Nightfalls
with pretty much everything in between.
What else can you expect in the Repulsivee Clan?
Open, Active and Friendly Discord where we organise Clan nights and working in collaboration with another Clan/Discord for Competitive Events and Challenges. https://discord.gg/bAD6chd8
24/7 Help and support in Destiny as well as outside
Discord where all new information about the game is posted Daily/Weekly to keep you up to date
Many of our Members stream with a substantial audience so we always are doing some really great stuff in the game
we are currently going through the process of restructuring our discord to where you obtain ranks and responsibilities within the clan and discord.
submitted by Wizxrd1884 to Destiny2Clans [link] [comments]
We are recruiting into our ever expanding and fast growing clan in Destiny 2.
https://discord.gg/bAD6chd8 JOIN THE DISCORD FOR A EVER EVOLVING AND ACTIVE CLAN
we are looking for anyone who either casually enjoys the game or decides that touching grass isn't for them and destiny is your only source of life.
We have a vast range of different skill types and mastery in all areas of content in the game, and anyone that is completely new to the game is always welcome.
Some of our favorites to help and play are:
Trials of Osiris
MasteNormal Raids:Dungeons
Grandmaster Nightfalls
with pretty much everything in between.
What else can you expect in the Repulsivee Clan?
Open, Active and Friendly Discord where we organise Clan nights and working in collaboration with another Clan/Discord for Competitive Events and Challenges. https://discord.gg/bAD6chd8
24/7 Help and support in Destiny as well as outside
Discord where all new information about the game is posted Daily/Weekly to keep you up to date
Many of our Members stream with a substantial audience so we always are doing some really great stuff in the game
we are currently going through the process of restructuring our discord to where you obtain ranks and responsibilities within the clan and discord.