6 thhn wire price per foot
Water Shielding Complete Enclosure
2023.06.03 00:21 themasterpodcaster Water Shielding Complete Enclosure
Method One
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 heigh containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
submitted by themasterpodcaster to TargetedEnergyWeapons [link] [comments]
Method One
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 heigh containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
2023.06.03 00:19 themasterpodcaster Basalt Shielding Complete Enclosure and Frame
Basalt should be used with water shielding or at least should sometimes. This post is part one of my basalt and water enclosure.
Part 2 Water Shielding Complete enclosure
https://www.reddit.com/TargetedEnergyWeapons/comments/13yri31/water_shielding_complete_enclosure/
HEAVY FRAME .5 THICK WALL WITH EXTRA SPACE
This frame to hold up the ceiling and for safety to keep the basalt walls from collapsing on me. It can also help to hold up the walls of basalt sandbags or poly tubing and can help to keep it straight. It could even help to hold up the water layer and to provide a straight structure for that.
ON THE OUTSIDE
3.17 wide
2.25 ft high frame
7.75 length 5.67ft long for height 1.08 ft for the 6.5 inch thick frame on either end 1fT for .5 thick basalt on either end
and theres a small doorway around foot end which gets filled in and then door is 1.6 high and 2ft wide I guess it gets filled in then other bags are in front of it and overlapping sides and top
INTERIOR
25 inches wide 3.17 on the outside minus 1.08 is 25 inches the walls are 6.5 inches thick with a 5.5 inch 2x6 and two .5 inch pieces of plywood equals 6.5 inches per wall 1.08 total
height 1.51ft high 7.75 inches total almost .67 ft ceiling 7 inches thick a 5.5 inch 6x2 and 2 .75 inch pieces of plywood floor 1 piece of .75 plywood
length 5.67ft
DESCRIPTION OF THE FRAME
I first described what I wanted to to my friend who knows about construction. He told me what the frame needed to be like to be strong enough for high level of safety.
I asked if we could make the part around the head strong since it needs to support 2ft thick of basalt and 1ft thick of water and the part around my body weaker and thin but he
said it will mess it up to build to different frames and connect them. He said its stronger just to build it in the same way with the same dimensions for the entire length of the frame.
Im am being forced against my will to build it with part of the material wasted on surrounding the bigger frame instead of providing thicker protection even though I think its overkill given
my extreme level of desperation and need to go faster.
I think he said that the ceiling would be made with a piece of .75 inch plywood on the outside then 2x6 pieces of wood under it running perpendicular to the long dimension of the structure. The pieces
have the 2 thing part lying against the plywood of the ceiling and the 6 inch dimension sticks down into the box. The Walls are made the same way but with two .5 inch pieces of plywood around the 2x6 pieces.
The pieces stand up vertically. The 2x6 sixes are only either 2 or 4 inches apart I think he said? The floor is one piece of .75 inch plywood to help hold the walls in place to help keep them from shifting out of fully
supporting the ceiling and then stressing the joints more. He said we can build it with plastic bolts to avoid using steel nails or nails made of other metals. This is nice compared to a frame made of mortar and bricks
because we can move it to different places hopefully including for testing at better places. I guess well put holes in the side of the inner plywood walls and ceiling to increase how much air the structure can hold so I can
test it for longer periods. He says that plywood offgasses formaldehyde and I read you cant coat it or wrap it to stop that. So I guess its necessary to use more expensive formaldehyde free plywood.
The shielded person can get on a piece of .75 inch plywood with 4 mill farmers plastic on one side and the floor has greased farmers plastic on it so that the person can be slid into place without needing enough room or
fitness to wriggle in. Someone slides me in without me needing the room to wriggle back and forth or up an down and with less chance of bumping my nose Or you could lie on plywood with thick plastic on one side or OSB which
has a slick surface and the floor would be greased farmer plastic. There is an outline on the plywood and I lie just in the right spot and they push me in.
This design makes it 6 inches wider than my shoulders which I had hope would be enough to wriggle in without really any vertical room despite my body being somewhat messed up and not being able to get exercise.
Now im thinking this give me enough room to be pushed into place but I'm wondering could I get away with only 3 inches extra at the shoulders?
There could be 2 plastic pulleys in the corners and I get pulled instead of pushed in so it's easier.
This structure is supposed to totally surround me in water as well as basalt. Since the water containers wont hold up under the weigh of being underneath the basalt floor and ceiling as well the water has to be inside the frame
with me so that only my weight is on top of it. So Im planning on leaving enough room to have 2 layers of large fomenteck water bags. The two layers mean they will overlap at the seems. Im thinking that each layers bags will
also be stuck to each other with tape to keep them from separating and so they slightly overlap at the edges but without being thicker then the thickest part of the bags. If there isnt enough room for two layers somehow then
the small thinner fomenteck bags could create my two layers or just overlap the seems. The interior is about 1.5ft so two 4 inch thick fomenteck bag high floor will leave 10 inches minus the room for the plywood to slide in on.
PLASTIC BOLTS
plastic bolts 10 for $9
https://www.grainger.com/product/GRAINGER-APPROVED-Hex-Head-Cap-Screw-Nylon-4AGR8
amazon plastic bolt $6 for 10
https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Find-Fastener-014973168261-Piece-10/dp/B003PBA2FY/ref=sr_1_2?crid=33APW3CB2535I&keywords=HARD%2BTO%2BFIND%2BPLASTIC%2BBOLTS%2B2%2BINCHES&qid=1685717324&sprefix=hard%2Bto%2Bfind%2Bplastic%2Bbolts%2B2%2Binches%2Caps%2C114&sr=8-2&th=1
THE BASALT LAYER
So this is a a enclosure of basalt thats 6 inches thick for the ceiling, the floor, side walls and the front and back wall. Its a complete enclosure and doorway gets blocked up after Im in it. When I made it like this I was assuming that
there was no way to make a thinner floor anyway but with the poly tubing I might be able to make it 3 or 4 inches thick using a double layer of the smallest poly tubing and save some weight.
CEILING AND FLOOR 32.32 cubic ft 4.17ft wide x 7.75ft long frame is 6.75 plus .5 ft basalt on one side and .5 basalt on the other is 7.75 total
SIDE WALLS 17.44 cubic ft 2.25ft high by 7.75ft long outside of frame is 2.25ft high and i'm defining the walls as the height between the basalt ceiling and floor which is the height of the frame. The walls dont include
the basalt that is over the wall but is above or underneath the level of the frame which can be defined as part of the ceiling or floor.
END WALLS 7.13 cubic ft 2.25ft high by 3.17 ft long The length of the end walls are the distance between the inner surface of the side walls.
say use 4 60lb bags to block the door thoroughly 3 to 2.4 cubic ft
TOTAL
SOLID WALL 59.3 cubic ft to 59.9 cubic ft 60 cubic ft is 2.4 tons tons at 80lb per cubic ft with a solid wall 3 tons at 100lb per cubic ft with solid wall this will really at least a touch less if I make it with bags because there will be some space between the bags
no matter what I do.
POLY TUBING WALL The round shape of the tubing means that the wall won't be solid and will have some of the space empty. Ill say that if I use the tubing it will only use 80 percent of what a totally solid wall will. So if I use two layers of 3 inch tubes of basalt
then the most basalt it can use is 80 percent of a solid wall I think.
Total 60 cubic ft with poly tubing at 80lb a cubic ft is 1.92 tons at at 100lb a cubic ft is 2.4 tons
BRAIN PROTECTION
theres .5 ft of basalt in every direction so Im adding extra basalt to reach the full thickness I want around my brain.
BRAIN PORTECTION 1
ON TOP A 2X2ft square above brain uses 6 cubic extra ft adding 1.5ft thick total to make it 2ft thick altogether. is centered on forehead and the back and of it is about 3 inches away from the back wall of the whole structure.
BEHIND 2X2X2ft total uses 6 cubic ft extra adding 1.5ft thickness The top is level with the rest of the basalt ceiling the bottom is level with the bottom of the TIs brain and is centered on there brain from left to right.
ON THE SIDES 2x2 ft and 1ft thick total uses 4 cubic ft extra for both sides adding .5ft thick Is the same as the behind one but on the sides.
TOTAL is 16 cubic ft solid wall .64 tons at 80lb per cubic ft .8lb tons if 100lb per cubic ft using poly tubing uses .51 tons at 80lb per cubic ft and .64 tons at 100lb per cubic ft
GRAND TOTAL WITH STRUCTURE 2.43 with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft or 3.04 tons with poly tubing and 100lb per cubic ft
BRAIN PROTECTION 2
this is describing an additional outer wall that fits over the basalt box I already described to bring it up to 1ft thick for part of it.
CEILING AND FLOOR 15.75 cubic ft 5.25ft x 3ft
SIDE WALL 9.75 cubic ft 3.25x 3ft
BACK WALL 13.5 cubic ft 3.25x4.17
total 40 cubic ft added with poly tubing .8 tons at 80lb a cubic ft and 1 ton with 100lb a cubic ft
GRAND TOTAL 2.72 tons with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft and 3.4 tons with 100lb a cubic ft
BRAIN PROTECTION 3
brain protection 2 with 2x2x2ft above and behind brain total thickness .
GRAND TOTAL2.97 tons with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft and 3.71 tons with 100lb a cubic ft
HEAVY PROECTION AROUND BRAIN total is 63.5 cubic ft 2.35 tons at 80lb per cubic ft 2.94 at 100lb per cubic ft
4.5 ft high 5ft wide and 3ft long 67.5 total - 12 inside equals 55.5cubic ft total 2 to 2.5 tons roughly
plus 2x2 1ft tall on top and 2x2x1 on side for extra thickness 8 cubic ft total
VERY HEAVY BRAIN PROTECTION
I did a calculation that was for protection around brain that was 4 or 4.5 ft long so my head and body would go into it 1.5 or 2ft.
The entire back wall was 2ft thick the entire celling was 2ft thick the side walls were 1ft thick. It was 4.1 tons but
. Then the section around the body would be reduced since it takes care of all of that part.
If that part is 1ft thick except for the floor which is .5 ft thick then it would weigh 2.5 tons. Total is 6.6 tons.
None of this was with poly tubing.
THIS IS A CYLINDRICAL COMPLETE ENCLOSURE YOU COULD LIVE IN SLEEP OR WORK IN
8x8x8.5 outside
6x6x6 interior
2ft thick celling
.5ft thick floor
1ft thick wall all the way around
9.44 tons at 80lb a cubic ft
11.8 tons at 100lb a cubic ft
LIVING ENCLOSURE WITH BACK WALL
has a 8x8.5x1ft thick back extra wall behind it for two ft thick protection in one direction
adds 2.72 tons at 80lb a cubic ton3.4 tons at 100lb a cubic ton
TOTAL 12.16 tons at 80lb per cubic ton 15.2 tons at 100lb a cubic ft
Im guessing you can have basalt shipped to you or move it yourself for as little as $100 a ton or $200 a ton
The most you should pay even in the worst locations is about $1000 per ton I think
You can get cheaper shipping with bulk orders and perhaps cheaper if you have a buisinsess buy it for you.
So with 15 tons it would take $1500 to $3000 in the best location and $15000 or less in the worst
with half of that at 7.5 tons it would take $750 to $1500 in the best location and $7500 at most in the worst
If a TI had enough money they could even double this protection in the best location.
You haft to figure out how to have it meet the right building codes for earth homes or whatever.
You might help it to stay up and protect it with fence posts cinderblocks and cement or bricks and cement.
If you have sandbags exposed to the sun put a heavy tarp over them to make them last longer.
For the door perhaps you just take out a 18 inch wide 10 inch tall piece at the bottom and put some frame around it
to hold it up and then after you crawl in you block it up with sandbags of basalt. One thing you might use is basalt
blocks as the frame and you might be able to use some kind of mortar based on sand sized criva or to mix criva with mortar.
Solid basalt blocks havnt been tested yet.
So I'm being forced against my will to use only 2 to 4 tons of basalt even though I have been planning on using 6 or 7 tons to get a full foot around my body and 2ft on the top of my head and behind it that takes up that whole surface.
So I can only make it 6 inches thick for most of it. Its a challenge to try and make close to six inches thick instead of a lot more or less than that. Its a challenge to have it overlap and to block the seams between the bags well enough
with only 6 inches thick. Iv heard that full size 14 inch by 26 inch long sandbags are about 6 to 8 inches thick when full. This already might make it much much thicker if it has to be 8 inches and I dont think they could be pushed together
well enough to erase the spaces between them. Im thinking that to block RNM possibly its more important to have a complete protection lass bad weak points in it then with physical attacks Its important for me thinking its a good test at
least ast his thickness. Use the mini sand bags in a double layer for the roof and floor but I'm still somewhat worried about blocking the cracks well enough and I dont know how thick it will be. Since I already ordered a ton of dust I need to
use that so Ill need to put it in large strong enough plastic bags and then put it in the mini sand bags. Or I could just put it in my 6x9 inch 4 mil plastic bags and tape them closed or use zip lock quart, half gallon or gallon bags from the grocery store
possibly. I could use other plastic bags. I could use small plastic bags and do like 3 offset overlapping layers or something. only one of my 3 or 4 tons is dust.
I dont know how it will go for the side walls If i use the mini sandbags it will only be one layer thick and dont know if the spaces between then can be blocked well enough like that. The wall will be 3.25ft tall when you include the ceiling and the floor
as part of the walls height. My friend told me that's as high as you can build with round gravel and non round gravel you can build a 4ft high wall perhaps but that with normal sandbags not mini ones. I will have the plywood frame on one side and
can put water containers holding up a piece of plywood on the other side and stack them between them though. I dont know if this will work well enough.
I had the idea of using poly tubing. This is a tube of 6 mill or less plastic that you can cut and then seal to create bags. You can just buy the roll though. So I could use to layers of 3 inch wide poly tubing running the entire length of the structure to
create first the basalt floor and then the basalt ceiling. They would be offset so that the second layer blocks the cracks in the first. I dont know if you can mush them or leave some out and then flatten them to cover the cracks better.
I could also use 3 layers of 2 inch thick poly tubing with perhaps the middle layer going crossways. Im thinking Ill put a strip of plywood sticking up 6 inches on either side of it so that it can hold in the tubing on the ceiling and keep it from rolling off the side.
Then I can put one extra piece right on top of the plywood divider to cover the gap between the side wall and the ceiling which end at the same height. I dont know how this would work for the walls. I might need the two pieces of plywood on either side. I dont know if
it would be strong enough especially if I use 6 inch wide tubing. I could fit in smaller tubes where two big tubes join each other. You can seal them with twist ties or a heat gun or a might use zip ties. I dont know what works. One benefit of using these is that
instead of a wall of solid basalt, if the tubes end up round then only 75 percent of the space will be full of basalt saving me weight. I dont understand how it isn't a problem to have any empty space in the wall at all though.
If i put my basalt in poly tube bags and it forms a pretty non flexible cylinder then it might not matter much if I use smaller criva or 3/8 to 5/8 buttons in terms of the flexibility. Since part of my structure will only be 6 inches thick though it might be more important
to keep the rocks small and reduce the gaps between them. Also because im making a complete enclosure and trying to put thicker protection around my brain then your 1ft I I will I will hopefully be able to reduce the RNM and attacks on my brain more then you
can reduce your attacks on you head with your set up. Possibly with RNM and mental attacks blocking the cracks matters more I dont know.
6 mil poly tubing different sizes dont know if its good quality
https://www.packagingsupplies.com/collections/6-mil-poly-tubing?msclkid=95131bb30bca15b91bc17fc492a9d4a8&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Dynamic%20Search&utm_term=packagingsupplies&utm_content=All%20Webpages
submitted by themasterpodcaster to TargetedEnergyWeapons [link] [comments]
Part 2 Water Shielding Complete enclosure
https://www.reddit.com/TargetedEnergyWeapons/comments/13yri31/water_shielding_complete_enclosure/
HEAVY FRAME .5 THICK WALL WITH EXTRA SPACE
This frame to hold up the ceiling and for safety to keep the basalt walls from collapsing on me. It can also help to hold up the walls of basalt sandbags or poly tubing and can help to keep it straight. It could even help to hold up the water layer and to provide a straight structure for that.
ON THE OUTSIDE
3.17 wide
2.25 ft high frame
7.75 length 5.67ft long for height 1.08 ft for the 6.5 inch thick frame on either end 1fT for .5 thick basalt on either end
and theres a small doorway around foot end which gets filled in and then door is 1.6 high and 2ft wide I guess it gets filled in then other bags are in front of it and overlapping sides and top
INTERIOR
25 inches wide 3.17 on the outside minus 1.08 is 25 inches the walls are 6.5 inches thick with a 5.5 inch 2x6 and two .5 inch pieces of plywood equals 6.5 inches per wall 1.08 total
height 1.51ft high 7.75 inches total almost .67 ft ceiling 7 inches thick a 5.5 inch 6x2 and 2 .75 inch pieces of plywood floor 1 piece of .75 plywood
length 5.67ft
DESCRIPTION OF THE FRAME
I first described what I wanted to to my friend who knows about construction. He told me what the frame needed to be like to be strong enough for high level of safety.
I asked if we could make the part around the head strong since it needs to support 2ft thick of basalt and 1ft thick of water and the part around my body weaker and thin but he
said it will mess it up to build to different frames and connect them. He said its stronger just to build it in the same way with the same dimensions for the entire length of the frame.
Im am being forced against my will to build it with part of the material wasted on surrounding the bigger frame instead of providing thicker protection even though I think its overkill given
my extreme level of desperation and need to go faster.
I think he said that the ceiling would be made with a piece of .75 inch plywood on the outside then 2x6 pieces of wood under it running perpendicular to the long dimension of the structure. The pieces
have the 2 thing part lying against the plywood of the ceiling and the 6 inch dimension sticks down into the box. The Walls are made the same way but with two .5 inch pieces of plywood around the 2x6 pieces.
The pieces stand up vertically. The 2x6 sixes are only either 2 or 4 inches apart I think he said? The floor is one piece of .75 inch plywood to help hold the walls in place to help keep them from shifting out of fully
supporting the ceiling and then stressing the joints more. He said we can build it with plastic bolts to avoid using steel nails or nails made of other metals. This is nice compared to a frame made of mortar and bricks
because we can move it to different places hopefully including for testing at better places. I guess well put holes in the side of the inner plywood walls and ceiling to increase how much air the structure can hold so I can
test it for longer periods. He says that plywood offgasses formaldehyde and I read you cant coat it or wrap it to stop that. So I guess its necessary to use more expensive formaldehyde free plywood.
The shielded person can get on a piece of .75 inch plywood with 4 mill farmers plastic on one side and the floor has greased farmers plastic on it so that the person can be slid into place without needing enough room or
fitness to wriggle in. Someone slides me in without me needing the room to wriggle back and forth or up an down and with less chance of bumping my nose Or you could lie on plywood with thick plastic on one side or OSB which
has a slick surface and the floor would be greased farmer plastic. There is an outline on the plywood and I lie just in the right spot and they push me in.
This design makes it 6 inches wider than my shoulders which I had hope would be enough to wriggle in without really any vertical room despite my body being somewhat messed up and not being able to get exercise.
Now im thinking this give me enough room to be pushed into place but I'm wondering could I get away with only 3 inches extra at the shoulders?
There could be 2 plastic pulleys in the corners and I get pulled instead of pushed in so it's easier.
This structure is supposed to totally surround me in water as well as basalt. Since the water containers wont hold up under the weigh of being underneath the basalt floor and ceiling as well the water has to be inside the frame
with me so that only my weight is on top of it. So Im planning on leaving enough room to have 2 layers of large fomenteck water bags. The two layers mean they will overlap at the seems. Im thinking that each layers bags will
also be stuck to each other with tape to keep them from separating and so they slightly overlap at the edges but without being thicker then the thickest part of the bags. If there isnt enough room for two layers somehow then
the small thinner fomenteck bags could create my two layers or just overlap the seems. The interior is about 1.5ft so two 4 inch thick fomenteck bag high floor will leave 10 inches minus the room for the plywood to slide in on.
PLASTIC BOLTS
plastic bolts 10 for $9
https://www.grainger.com/product/GRAINGER-APPROVED-Hex-Head-Cap-Screw-Nylon-4AGR8
amazon plastic bolt $6 for 10
https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Find-Fastener-014973168261-Piece-10/dp/B003PBA2FY/ref=sr_1_2?crid=33APW3CB2535I&keywords=HARD%2BTO%2BFIND%2BPLASTIC%2BBOLTS%2B2%2BINCHES&qid=1685717324&sprefix=hard%2Bto%2Bfind%2Bplastic%2Bbolts%2B2%2Binches%2Caps%2C114&sr=8-2&th=1
THE BASALT LAYER
So this is a a enclosure of basalt thats 6 inches thick for the ceiling, the floor, side walls and the front and back wall. Its a complete enclosure and doorway gets blocked up after Im in it. When I made it like this I was assuming that
there was no way to make a thinner floor anyway but with the poly tubing I might be able to make it 3 or 4 inches thick using a double layer of the smallest poly tubing and save some weight.
CEILING AND FLOOR 32.32 cubic ft 4.17ft wide x 7.75ft long frame is 6.75 plus .5 ft basalt on one side and .5 basalt on the other is 7.75 total
SIDE WALLS 17.44 cubic ft 2.25ft high by 7.75ft long outside of frame is 2.25ft high and i'm defining the walls as the height between the basalt ceiling and floor which is the height of the frame. The walls dont include
the basalt that is over the wall but is above or underneath the level of the frame which can be defined as part of the ceiling or floor.
END WALLS 7.13 cubic ft 2.25ft high by 3.17 ft long The length of the end walls are the distance between the inner surface of the side walls.
say use 4 60lb bags to block the door thoroughly 3 to 2.4 cubic ft
TOTAL
SOLID WALL 59.3 cubic ft to 59.9 cubic ft 60 cubic ft is 2.4 tons tons at 80lb per cubic ft with a solid wall 3 tons at 100lb per cubic ft with solid wall this will really at least a touch less if I make it with bags because there will be some space between the bags
no matter what I do.
POLY TUBING WALL The round shape of the tubing means that the wall won't be solid and will have some of the space empty. Ill say that if I use the tubing it will only use 80 percent of what a totally solid wall will. So if I use two layers of 3 inch tubes of basalt
then the most basalt it can use is 80 percent of a solid wall I think.
Total 60 cubic ft with poly tubing at 80lb a cubic ft is 1.92 tons at at 100lb a cubic ft is 2.4 tons
BRAIN PROTECTION
theres .5 ft of basalt in every direction so Im adding extra basalt to reach the full thickness I want around my brain.
BRAIN PORTECTION 1
ON TOP A 2X2ft square above brain uses 6 cubic extra ft adding 1.5ft thick total to make it 2ft thick altogether. is centered on forehead and the back and of it is about 3 inches away from the back wall of the whole structure.
BEHIND 2X2X2ft total uses 6 cubic ft extra adding 1.5ft thickness The top is level with the rest of the basalt ceiling the bottom is level with the bottom of the TIs brain and is centered on there brain from left to right.
ON THE SIDES 2x2 ft and 1ft thick total uses 4 cubic ft extra for both sides adding .5ft thick Is the same as the behind one but on the sides.
TOTAL is 16 cubic ft solid wall .64 tons at 80lb per cubic ft .8lb tons if 100lb per cubic ft using poly tubing uses .51 tons at 80lb per cubic ft and .64 tons at 100lb per cubic ft
GRAND TOTAL WITH STRUCTURE 2.43 with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft or 3.04 tons with poly tubing and 100lb per cubic ft
BRAIN PROTECTION 2
this is describing an additional outer wall that fits over the basalt box I already described to bring it up to 1ft thick for part of it.
CEILING AND FLOOR 15.75 cubic ft 5.25ft x 3ft
SIDE WALL 9.75 cubic ft 3.25x 3ft
BACK WALL 13.5 cubic ft 3.25x4.17
total 40 cubic ft added with poly tubing .8 tons at 80lb a cubic ft and 1 ton with 100lb a cubic ft
GRAND TOTAL 2.72 tons with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft and 3.4 tons with 100lb a cubic ft
BRAIN PROTECTION 3
brain protection 2 with 2x2x2ft above and behind brain total thickness .
GRAND TOTAL2.97 tons with poly tubing 80lb a cubic ft and 3.71 tons with 100lb a cubic ft
HEAVY PROECTION AROUND BRAIN total is 63.5 cubic ft 2.35 tons at 80lb per cubic ft 2.94 at 100lb per cubic ft
4.5 ft high 5ft wide and 3ft long 67.5 total - 12 inside equals 55.5cubic ft total 2 to 2.5 tons roughly
plus 2x2 1ft tall on top and 2x2x1 on side for extra thickness 8 cubic ft total
VERY HEAVY BRAIN PROTECTION
I did a calculation that was for protection around brain that was 4 or 4.5 ft long so my head and body would go into it 1.5 or 2ft.
The entire back wall was 2ft thick the entire celling was 2ft thick the side walls were 1ft thick. It was 4.1 tons but
. Then the section around the body would be reduced since it takes care of all of that part.
If that part is 1ft thick except for the floor which is .5 ft thick then it would weigh 2.5 tons. Total is 6.6 tons.
None of this was with poly tubing.
THIS IS A CYLINDRICAL COMPLETE ENCLOSURE YOU COULD LIVE IN SLEEP OR WORK IN
8x8x8.5 outside
6x6x6 interior
2ft thick celling
.5ft thick floor
1ft thick wall all the way around
9.44 tons at 80lb a cubic ft
11.8 tons at 100lb a cubic ft
LIVING ENCLOSURE WITH BACK WALL
has a 8x8.5x1ft thick back extra wall behind it for two ft thick protection in one direction
adds 2.72 tons at 80lb a cubic ton3.4 tons at 100lb a cubic ton
TOTAL 12.16 tons at 80lb per cubic ton 15.2 tons at 100lb a cubic ft
Im guessing you can have basalt shipped to you or move it yourself for as little as $100 a ton or $200 a ton
The most you should pay even in the worst locations is about $1000 per ton I think
You can get cheaper shipping with bulk orders and perhaps cheaper if you have a buisinsess buy it for you.
So with 15 tons it would take $1500 to $3000 in the best location and $15000 or less in the worst
with half of that at 7.5 tons it would take $750 to $1500 in the best location and $7500 at most in the worst
If a TI had enough money they could even double this protection in the best location.
You haft to figure out how to have it meet the right building codes for earth homes or whatever.
You might help it to stay up and protect it with fence posts cinderblocks and cement or bricks and cement.
If you have sandbags exposed to the sun put a heavy tarp over them to make them last longer.
For the door perhaps you just take out a 18 inch wide 10 inch tall piece at the bottom and put some frame around it
to hold it up and then after you crawl in you block it up with sandbags of basalt. One thing you might use is basalt
blocks as the frame and you might be able to use some kind of mortar based on sand sized criva or to mix criva with mortar.
Solid basalt blocks havnt been tested yet.
So I'm being forced against my will to use only 2 to 4 tons of basalt even though I have been planning on using 6 or 7 tons to get a full foot around my body and 2ft on the top of my head and behind it that takes up that whole surface.
So I can only make it 6 inches thick for most of it. Its a challenge to try and make close to six inches thick instead of a lot more or less than that. Its a challenge to have it overlap and to block the seams between the bags well enough
with only 6 inches thick. Iv heard that full size 14 inch by 26 inch long sandbags are about 6 to 8 inches thick when full. This already might make it much much thicker if it has to be 8 inches and I dont think they could be pushed together
well enough to erase the spaces between them. Im thinking that to block RNM possibly its more important to have a complete protection lass bad weak points in it then with physical attacks Its important for me thinking its a good test at
least ast his thickness. Use the mini sand bags in a double layer for the roof and floor but I'm still somewhat worried about blocking the cracks well enough and I dont know how thick it will be. Since I already ordered a ton of dust I need to
use that so Ill need to put it in large strong enough plastic bags and then put it in the mini sand bags. Or I could just put it in my 6x9 inch 4 mil plastic bags and tape them closed or use zip lock quart, half gallon or gallon bags from the grocery store
possibly. I could use other plastic bags. I could use small plastic bags and do like 3 offset overlapping layers or something. only one of my 3 or 4 tons is dust.
I dont know how it will go for the side walls If i use the mini sandbags it will only be one layer thick and dont know if the spaces between then can be blocked well enough like that. The wall will be 3.25ft tall when you include the ceiling and the floor
as part of the walls height. My friend told me that's as high as you can build with round gravel and non round gravel you can build a 4ft high wall perhaps but that with normal sandbags not mini ones. I will have the plywood frame on one side and
can put water containers holding up a piece of plywood on the other side and stack them between them though. I dont know if this will work well enough.
I had the idea of using poly tubing. This is a tube of 6 mill or less plastic that you can cut and then seal to create bags. You can just buy the roll though. So I could use to layers of 3 inch wide poly tubing running the entire length of the structure to
create first the basalt floor and then the basalt ceiling. They would be offset so that the second layer blocks the cracks in the first. I dont know if you can mush them or leave some out and then flatten them to cover the cracks better.
I could also use 3 layers of 2 inch thick poly tubing with perhaps the middle layer going crossways. Im thinking Ill put a strip of plywood sticking up 6 inches on either side of it so that it can hold in the tubing on the ceiling and keep it from rolling off the side.
Then I can put one extra piece right on top of the plywood divider to cover the gap between the side wall and the ceiling which end at the same height. I dont know how this would work for the walls. I might need the two pieces of plywood on either side. I dont know if
it would be strong enough especially if I use 6 inch wide tubing. I could fit in smaller tubes where two big tubes join each other. You can seal them with twist ties or a heat gun or a might use zip ties. I dont know what works. One benefit of using these is that
instead of a wall of solid basalt, if the tubes end up round then only 75 percent of the space will be full of basalt saving me weight. I dont understand how it isn't a problem to have any empty space in the wall at all though.
If i put my basalt in poly tube bags and it forms a pretty non flexible cylinder then it might not matter much if I use smaller criva or 3/8 to 5/8 buttons in terms of the flexibility. Since part of my structure will only be 6 inches thick though it might be more important
to keep the rocks small and reduce the gaps between them. Also because im making a complete enclosure and trying to put thicker protection around my brain then your 1ft I I will I will hopefully be able to reduce the RNM and attacks on my brain more then you
can reduce your attacks on you head with your set up. Possibly with RNM and mental attacks blocking the cracks matters more I dont know.
6 mil poly tubing different sizes dont know if its good quality
https://www.packagingsupplies.com/collections/6-mil-poly-tubing?msclkid=95131bb30bca15b91bc17fc492a9d4a8&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Dynamic%20Search&utm_term=packagingsupplies&utm_content=All%20Webpages
2023.06.03 00:18 BrknX Aeon Noire 2 or ?
I've been researching a ton to find the best closed back headphones in the $1k range. Currently I have the Bose 700s, which are functionally great, but I'm trying to buy my way into something substantially better for sound. The only real requirements are closed back and wired.
Reviews overall seem to Hail the DCA Noire 2's as about the best one can do in this price range. I'd love to hear opinions either way. Since this is probably what you'd consider my first foray into audiophile hardware, I don't want to overextend, but I do want to pay for a massive upgrade in sound. Fwiw I mostly listen to rock/metal, and I need to be able to wear them for 6+ hours per day at minimum.
Thanks in advance
submitted by BrknX to HeadphoneAdvice [link] [comments]
Reviews overall seem to Hail the DCA Noire 2's as about the best one can do in this price range. I'd love to hear opinions either way. Since this is probably what you'd consider my first foray into audiophile hardware, I don't want to overextend, but I do want to pay for a massive upgrade in sound. Fwiw I mostly listen to rock/metal, and I need to be able to wear them for 6+ hours per day at minimum.
Thanks in advance
2023.06.03 00:11 blueberry_babe White claw single cans, Welch’s fruit snacks, and more
 | Disclaimer: don’t pay attention the to date on the tags or which tag I’m holding. The smaller size is current. I’ve been working here 3 years I know how to spot a shrink and I’m not posting size increases as they’re irrelevant to the sub. submitted by blueberry_babe to shrinkflation [link] [comments] I think I saw a post about the white claw singles recently but with no photos. Well we just got the smaller size in. The Welch’s shrunk a little while ago, both small and large multi pack snack pouches but I noticed it on my reports again. More m&m stand up pouches and more dawn dish soap shrinks. |
2023.06.03 00:10 dasxce [NM] 43227 Villain Icons + 43226 Disney Duos - 47 spots at $5/ea
Item Name Set Number: 43227 Villain Icons + 43226 Disney Duos
Lego Price: $130 + $45 + $11 tax
Timestamp and pictures of box: https://imgur.com/a/xmhD6o9
Shipping: $49 from 22181 to 98597 (8lbs, 20in x 16in x 7in with insurance for $186)
Raffle Total/Spots: $235, 47 spots @ $5 each
Price justification: lego.com
Call spots: Y
Spot limit per person: None
Duration of spot limit: N/A
Location(Country): Washington DC, USA
Will ship international: N. HI and AK pays difference in shipping
Description: Brand new, sealed 43227 Villain Icons + 43226 Disney Duos. One winner for both sets.
Payment required w/in 10 minutes of raffle filling, 5 minutes for any drama.
PayPal payments are to be Friends and Family only with NO COMMENTS. Comments will result in a permanent ban
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Tip BlobAndHisBoy
Number of vacant slots: 4
Number of unpaid users: 7
Number of unpaid slots: 14
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BlobAndHisBoy.
1 CJHal PAID
2 Bosskz PAID
3 ShuckleStorm
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5 Jman901
6 Bosskz PAID
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21 oxidiz PAID
22 Jman901
23 oxidiz PAID
24 phroz3n PAID
25 Bosskz PAID
26 jethro2126 PAID
27
28 gfy4dsny PAID
29 Jman901
30 Theserialchiller-
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32 gfy4dsny PAID
33 Jman901
34 TeddyLea
35 mrxscarface PAID
36 PurpleMARL PAID
37 jethro2126 PAID
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submitted by dasxce to lego_raffles [link] [comments]
Lego Price: $130 + $45 + $11 tax
Timestamp and pictures of box: https://imgur.com/a/xmhD6o9
Shipping: $49 from 22181 to 98597 (8lbs, 20in x 16in x 7in with insurance for $186)
Raffle Total/Spots: $235, 47 spots @ $5 each
Price justification: lego.com
Call spots: Y
Spot limit per person: None
Duration of spot limit: N/A
Location(Country): Washington DC, USA
Will ship international: N. HI and AK pays difference in shipping
Description: Brand new, sealed 43227 Villain Icons + 43226 Disney Duos. One winner for both sets.
Payment required w/in 10 minutes of raffle filling, 5 minutes for any drama.
PayPal payments are to be Friends and Family only with NO COMMENTS. Comments will result in a permanent ban
PayPal Info: DM me for its info
Cash App Info: https://cash.app
Tip BlobAndHisBoy
Number of vacant slots: 4
Number of unpaid users: 7
Number of unpaid slots: 14
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BlobAndHisBoy.
1 CJHal PAID
2 Bosskz PAID
3 ShuckleStorm
4 gfy4dsny PAID
5 Jman901
6 Bosskz PAID
7 Bosskz PAID
8 Bosskz PAID
9 despinos
10 robob280
11 stollba PAID
12 Bosskz PAID
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21 oxidiz PAID
22 Jman901
23 oxidiz PAID
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25 Bosskz PAID
26 jethro2126 PAID
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28 gfy4dsny PAID
29 Jman901
30 Theserialchiller-
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32 gfy4dsny PAID
33 Jman901
34 TeddyLea
35 mrxscarface PAID
36 PurpleMARL PAID
37 jethro2126 PAID
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39 bosskz PAID
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41 East_Excitement_2009 PAID
42 gfy4dsny PAID
43 mrxscarface PAID
44 therontheteej
45 stollba PAID
46 stollba PAID
47 CJHal PAID
2023.06.03 00:10 AutoModerator [Download Course] Adam Bensman – 6-Figure Income Sprint (Genkicourses.com)
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2023.06.02 23:52 Kampher7 New homeowner. Could use advice on a quote.
 | I have a 1900 sq ft roof that needs to be replaced. We think it was installed in the 90s but it's covered in deep, deep moss and is showing its age. Old bungalow style home that was built in the 1940s. submitted by Kampher7 to Roofing [link] [comments] The contractor quoted us the attached. Just wondering if this seems like decent materials for the price. $11,900.00 for removal and installation. Thanks for the help. |
2023.06.02 23:43 AutoModerator Where Can I Watch The Little Mermaid Free Online Streaming On Reddit?
Marvel Comics! Here’s downloading or watching Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse streaming the full movie online for free on 123movies & Reddit, including where to watch the anticipated Pixar’s Movie at home. Is Lightyear 2023 available to stream? Is watching Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 2023 on Disney Plus, HBO Max, Netflix, or Amazon Prime? Yes, we have found a faithful streaming option/service.
This is not the Buzz Lightyear you know and love—the one who is best friends with Woody and voiced by Tim Allen. This is the original Buzz Lightyear, a bonafide space ranger voiced by Chris Evans, who is stranded on a hostile planet that is 4.2 million lightyears from Earth, alongside his commander and crew. The Lightyear cast also includes the voices of Keke Palmer, Peter Sohn, James Brolin, Taika Waititi, Dale Soules, Uzo Aduba, and Isiah Whitlock Jr.
With this new Toy Story adventure coming to theatrese, you may feel the urge to revisit the classics. The decider is here to help with that. Read on to find out what Toy Story movies to watch before Lightyear and how to stream the Toy Story.
Generally, with their cinematic releases, Disney and Pixar tend to follow either a 30-day release window or a 45-day release window. We don’t know which one they’re going with yet for Lightyear, but this means that given the movie’s global release date is June 17, we can expect Lightyear to be on Disney Plus sometime between July 21 and August 3, 2022.
Where To Watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Online
Just click the link below to watch the full movie in its entirety. Details on how you can watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse COUGHING for free throughout the year are described below. If you’re a fan of the comics, you won’t want to miss this one! The storyline follows Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing as he tries to find his way home after being stranded on an alien planet. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse COUGHING is definitely a Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing movie you don’t want to miss with stunning visuals and an action-packed plot! Plus, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing online streaming is available on our website. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing online free, which includes streaming options such as 123movies, Reddit, or TV shows from HBO Max or Netflix! Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing Release in US Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing hits theaters on September 23, 2023. Tickets to see the film at your local movie theater are available online here. The film is being released in a wide release so you can watch it in person.
Lightyear can all be streamed using an HBO Max or Hulu subscription. If you’d prefer to rent the movies, only the first two are on Prime Video. Otherwise, all three films can be rented on YouTube, Apple TV+, or Google Play Movies & TV.
The second film in the franchise, Lightyear, will be released on June 17, 2022. Right now, it’s not confirmed where the movie will be streamed after its big-screen release.
submitted by AutoModerator to SpiderManSpiderVerhd [link] [comments]
Watch Now: Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse Movie Online
Over 25 years ago, a little boy named Andy received a Buzz Lightyear action figure in the 1995 Pixar film Toy Story. Now, all these years later, audiences will finally see the movie that inspired that action figure in the Toy Story spin-off movie, Lightyear, which is soaring into theatres this weekend.This is not the Buzz Lightyear you know and love—the one who is best friends with Woody and voiced by Tim Allen. This is the original Buzz Lightyear, a bonafide space ranger voiced by Chris Evans, who is stranded on a hostile planet that is 4.2 million lightyears from Earth, alongside his commander and crew. The Lightyear cast also includes the voices of Keke Palmer, Peter Sohn, James Brolin, Taika Waititi, Dale Soules, Uzo Aduba, and Isiah Whitlock Jr.
With this new Toy Story adventure coming to theatrese, you may feel the urge to revisit the classics. The decider is here to help with that. Read on to find out what Toy Story movies to watch before Lightyear and how to stream the Toy Story.
Can I Stream Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse?
You can’t stream Lightyear yet — but you’ll be able to soon. As a Disney movie, you can expect Lightyear to drop on their streaming service, Disney Plus, in the coming weeks, but the exact date of when that might happen hasn’t been announced yet.Generally, with their cinematic releases, Disney and Pixar tend to follow either a 30-day release window or a 45-day release window. We don’t know which one they’re going with yet for Lightyear, but this means that given the movie’s global release date is June 17, we can expect Lightyear to be on Disney Plus sometime between July 21 and August 3, 2022.
Where To Watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Online
Where To Watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Online
With a new Lightyear coming out very soon, you may want to rewatch all the movies. Or, if you haven’t given the animated adventure films a shot, now is your chance.Just click the link below to watch the full movie in its entirety. Details on how you can watch Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse COUGHING for free throughout the year are described below. If you’re a fan of the comics, you won’t want to miss this one! The storyline follows Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing as he tries to find his way home after being stranded on an alien planet. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse COUGHING is definitely a Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing movie you don’t want to miss with stunning visuals and an action-packed plot! Plus, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing online streaming is available on our website. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing online free, which includes streaming options such as 123movies, Reddit, or TV shows from HBO Max or Netflix! Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing Release in US Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Coughing hits theaters on September 23, 2023. Tickets to see the film at your local movie theater are available online here. The film is being released in a wide release so you can watch it in person.
Lightyear can all be streamed using an HBO Max or Hulu subscription. If you’d prefer to rent the movies, only the first two are on Prime Video. Otherwise, all three films can be rented on YouTube, Apple TV+, or Google Play Movies & TV.
The second film in the franchise, Lightyear, will be released on June 17, 2022. Right now, it’s not confirmed where the movie will be streamed after its big-screen release.
Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse on Netflix?
Lightyear is not available to watch on Netflix. Suppose you’re interested in other movies and shows. In that case, one can access the vast library of titles within Netflix under various subscription costs depending on the plan you choose: $9.99 per month for the basic plan, $15.99 monthly for the standard plan, and $19.99 a month for the premium plan.Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse on Disney Plus?
No sign of Lightyear on Disney+, which is proof that the House of Mouse doesn’t have its hands on every franchise! Home to the likes of ‘Star Wars, ‘Marvel’, ‘Pixar’, National Geographic’, ESPN, STAR, and so much more, Disney+ is available at the annual membership fee of $79.99 or the monthly cost of $7.99. If you’re a fan of even one of these brands, then signing up to Disney+ is worth it, and there aren’t any ads, either.Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse on HBO Max?
Sorry, Lightyear is not available on HBO Max. There is a lot of content from HBO Max for $14.99 a month, such a subscription is ad-free, and it allows you to access all the titles in the library of HBO Max. The streaming platform announced an ad-supported version that costs a lot less at $9.99 per month.Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse on Hulu?
They’re not on Hulu, either! But prices for this streaming service currently start at $6.99 per month or $69.99 for the whole year. The ad-free version costs $12.99 per month, $64.99 per month for Hulu + Live TV, or $70.99 for the ad-free Hulu + Live TV.Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 2022 on Amazon Video?
Unfortunately, Lightyear is not available to stream for free on Amazon Prime Video. However, you can choose other shows and movies to watch from there as it has a wide variety of shows and movies that you can choose from for $14.99 a month.2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
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2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
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May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
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([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
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Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
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Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:38 joe6386 Six Glazer siblings to retain Man Utd stakes under Ratcliffe offer -FT
https://www.ft.com/content/81d56a02-ec1e-44b8-a7f6-8ba570398643 The six Glazer siblings could retain stakes in Manchester United in a proposed phased takeover of the football club by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who is seeking a way through the share structure and family dynamics which have complicated the deal.The Glazer family started a strategic review more than six months ago but the process has dragged on with only two full takeover bids emerging for one of the biggest names in global sports
The offer from Ratcliffe and his Ineos chemicals empire is complicated because, unlike a rival proposal from a Qatari bidder, he is not seeking to acquire 100 per cent of United’s shares in one go, according to people close to the discussions.United has a listing on the New York Stock Exchange but the Glazers control 95 per cent of the voting rights thanks to a special class of B shares. The publicly traded A shares, which are largely held by minority shareholders, have minimal voting power.
Ratcliffe, who flew to New York for talks last month, is seeking to acquire at least enough B shares to hand him control of the club, in an offer that is not expected to be extended to common shareholders.
Some people in the process and those with links to the club had expected that United co-chairs Joel and Avram Glazer wanted a deal that would allow them to keep their shares and extend their stay, with their four siblings — Bryan, Darcie, Edward and Kevin — exiting in full.
Multiple people said the process, which was first announced in November last year, has been complicated by a lack of cohesion among the six Glazer siblings. The Glazers have also received several offers from investment firms to provide funds to inject into the club without a change of control.
However, two people with knowledge of the matter said the Glazers are now focused on a structure that would allow the six siblings to sell down their holdings in proportion to their holdings, allowing Ratcliffe to take control.
Ratcliffe and Ineos would buy the remainder of the Glazers’ shares in the coming years through derivatives contracts.
The structure of Ratcliffe’s bid means that he can part with less capital up front, obtain majority control and invest in the club.
“The penny has started to drop,” said one of the people. “There’s no requirement to make an offer for all shareholders.”
Uncertainty surrounding a deal has depressed United’s publicly traded shares since their mid-February peak of $27. At its current share price of $18.63, United’s equity is valued at around $3bn.
One issue around Ratcliffe’s plan to buy the B shares is that United stock exchange filings say the class B shares are “automatically and immediately” converted into class A shares on transfer from the Glazers “to a person or entity that is not an affiliate of the holder”.
One possible solution is for the Glazers to vote through changes that would allow the B shares to pass over to Ratcliffe without turning into A shares, two people close to the process said.
The Ineos group has remained flexible on structuring to increase its chances of winning over the Glazers, in a bid expected to value United at more than £5bn ($6.25bn), including debt. No deal is guaranteed and the structure could change, the people warned.
Despite growing frustrations among fans for clarity on the club’s ownership, no deal is expected imminently. United’s performance on the pitch has improved this season, with its final match at Wembley on Saturday in the FA Cup final against crosstown rival Manchester City.
The club has already won the League Cup and finished in third place in the Premier League, meaning it has qualified for the lucrative Uefa Champions League next season.
2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
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2023.06.02 23:35 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(*T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.06.02 23:33 ShootingIn8k (Selling) Just dropped some prices! D&D 4K, Ant-Man 3, Creed 3 4K, 65, 3:10 to Yuma, Tar 4K, Missing, EEAAO, Cocaine Bear, Alien 6-film Collection, Babylon 4K, Rocky 1-4 4k, Training Day 4K, Smile 4K, Belly 4K, Pulp Fiction 4K, Reservoir Dogs 4K, Bullet Train 4K, Clerks III 4K, Highlander 4K, etc!!
Question for people who also sell/buy on DCS. When is the ideal time to post? When are you looking to buy on a regular basis? Also have you noticed the formatting failing recently? I used to be able to copy and paste my previous posts and just remove the ones I've sold. Now it bunches everything up and the bulletpoints no longer function. I had to bring an older version into a word proccessor. Just werid and frustrating.
Trying to clear out my codes! If someone wants to buy every single code for a deep discount HMU I’ll sell orders of $100 or more for 40% OFF, $200 for 50% OFF, $300 for 60% OFF, $400 for 70% OFF and $500 for 75% OFF!!
Just went through and dropped some prices! Not interested in discussing discounts on single codes.
Codes Never Split
Paypal f+f
New Pickups
• 3:10 To Yuma - $6 4K Vudu (1 Left)
• 65 - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• 80 For Brady - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Alien 6-Film Collection - $12 HD MA (2 Left)
• American Frontier Trilogy (Wind River, Hell or High Water, Sicario) - $9 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Amsterdam - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Ant-Man: Quantumania - $8 4K MA (1 Left)
• Ant-Man: Quantumania - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Babylon - $7 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• Banshees of Inisherin - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Batman - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• Beast - $6 HD MA (2 Left)
• Belly - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Beverly Hills Cop II - $8 4K Vudu (1 Left)
• Bodies, Bodies, Bodies (A24) - $7 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Bullet Train - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• Call Jane - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Clerk III - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Cocaine Bear - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Creed III - $12 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Creed Trilogy - $18 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Devotion (2022) - $8 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Don't Worry Darling - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Dreamgirls - $5 HD Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Theives - $10 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Empire of Light - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Escape From LA - $8 4K Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• E.T. - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Everything Everywhere All At Once - $6 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• The Expendables 1-3 - $5 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• The Fablemans - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Fantastic Beasts 1-3 - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Flashdance - $6 4K Vudu, iTunes (2 Left)
• For the Love of Money (2021) - $5 HD Vudu/GP (1 Left)
• Frozen (Disney) - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Frozen II (Disney) - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Green Mile - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Heat 4K - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Highlander - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Hot Seat (2022) - $6 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• Interstellar - $6 4K itunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Jaws - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Jurassic World: Ultimate Collection (6 Movies) - $18 HD MA (1 Left)
• Knock at the Cabin - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Licorice Pizza - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Lightyear - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Lilo & Stich 2-Film Collection - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Lost City - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Mack & Rita - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Magic Mike 3 - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Marlowe - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• M3gan - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Men (A24) (2022) - $6 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• Menu - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Midsommar - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Missing (2023) - $9 HD MA (1 Left)
• Moonfall - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Nightmare Alley - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Nope - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• The Northman - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Old Way (2023 Nick Cage) - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Pearl (A24) - $5 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• Plane - $8 4K Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• Pulp Fiction - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• A Quiet Place 1 & 2 - $8 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Rambo 5-Film Collection - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Rambo: First Blood - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Rambo: Last Blood - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• The Requin - $6 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• The Rescuers 1 & 2 - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Reservoir Dogs - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Rocketman - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Rocky: The Knockout Collection 1-4 - $18 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Seriously Red - $6 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $9 4K MA
• She Said - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Smile - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Sonic 2 - $5 4K iTunes/vudu (1 Left)
• Strange World - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Spinning Gold - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Supercell - $7 HD VUDU (1 Left)
• SuperPets - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Taken 1-3 - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Tar - $9 4K MA (1 Left)
• Thor Love and Thunder - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Till - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Top Gun Maverick - $7 iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Training Day - $7 MA (2 Left)
• Turning Red - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• The Untouchables - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Walking Dead Final Season (Eleventh) - $8 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Warm Bodies - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• West Side Story (2021) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Where the Crawdads Sing - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Wolf of Wall Street - $6 4K Vudu/iTunes (3 Left)
• The Woman King - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• Young Sherlock Holmes - $5 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
Collections/TV
• Columbia Classics Vol. 3 - $36 4K MA (1 Left) $6 per title (Not for sale individually)
• Game of Throne Season 4 - HD iTunes/vudu $3
• GOT: House of Dragon S1 - $18 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Ghosts: Season One - $7 HD Vudu
• Jordan Peele 3-Movie Collection (Nope, Us, Get Out) - $12 HD MA (1 Left)
• Now You See Me 1&2 - $8 HD Vudu (1 Left)
Disney/Marvel/Star Wars (Unsplit, No DMR)
• Avengers: Endgame - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Avengers: Endgame - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Beauty and the Beast (Live Action) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The BFG - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Black Panther - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Call of the Wild - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Captain Marvel - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Cruella - $8 4K MA (1 Left)
• Disney Nature: Bears - $5 HD MA
• Finding Dory - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• The Finest Hours - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Frozen - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Inside Out - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Iron Man 3 - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Jungle Book (Live Action) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Maleficent - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Moana - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Oz The Great And Powerful - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Saving Mr. Banks - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Sleeping Beauty - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Star Wars: Force Awakens - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Star Wars: Rogue One - $4 HD MA (3 Left)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Thor: Dark World - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Wreck it Ralph 2 - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Zootopia - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
4K Movies
• Almost Famous - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Arrival - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Bad Boys for Life - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Bourne Legacy - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Deadpool - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Despicable Me 2 - $4 4K iTunes (3 Left)
• Dirty Dancing - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Escape Plan 2 - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Fast & Furious 6 (Extended) - $4 4K MA (1 Left)
• Fast & Furious 7 (Extended) - $4 4K MA (1 Left)
• Fate of the Furious + Extended - $3 4K MA (Extended Director's Cut is HD) (FREE WITH ANY PURCHASE OVER $5)
• Fifty Shades of Grey - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Force of Nature (2020) - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Hidden Figures - $5 4K MA (iTunes Redeem) (1 Left)
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• The Hunger Games - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $4 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Jack Reacher - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Jason Bourne - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Justice League - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Kingsman: The Golden Circle - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Life of Pi - $5 4K MA (iTunes Redeem) (1 Left)
• The Martian - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Mile 22 (2018) - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Mission: Impossible: Fallout - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Pitch Perfect - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Red 2 - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• The Revenant - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Secret Garden (2020) - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Secret Life of Pets - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Star Trek: Into Darkness - $4 4K iTunes (3 Left)
• Transformers: Age of Extinction - $5 4K iTunes (HD VUDU available) (2 Left)
• Transformers: The Last Knight - $5 4K iTunes (HD VUDU available) (1 Left)
• Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $4 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• xxx Xander Cage - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
HD Movies
• 12 Years A Slave - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• 2 Guns - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• 42 - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• About Time - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Amazing Spider-man - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• American Hustle - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Anchorman 2 - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Book of Life - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Boyhood (Linklater) - $5 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Breaking In (Unrated) - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Bring It On: Worldwide #Cheersmack - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• A Christmas Story 2 - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Dolphin Tale - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Escape From Planet Earth - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Extremely Loud Incredibly Close - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Ferdinand - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Flight - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Focus - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• A Good Day to Die Hard (Extended Edition) - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Grease 2 - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• The Greatest Showman - $4 HD MA (3 Left)
• The Hate U Give - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Home - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Host (2013) - $3 iTunes Redeem Port to MA (1 Left) Not Bong Joon-ho
• Hugo - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• If Beale Street Could Talk - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Kung Fu Panda - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Les Miserables - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Marvel's Iron Man & Hulk: Heroes United - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Midway - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Noah - $4 HD Vudu/iTunes
• Now You See Me - $4 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• Paddington - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Parental Guidance - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Possession - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Prometheus - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Reclaim - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Rise of the Guardians - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Robocop - $4 HD Vudu/GP (1 Left)
• Safe House - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Second Act - $3 iTunes (2 Left)
• The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Secret Life of Pets - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Shack - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Silver Linings Playbook - $4 HD Vudu
• Sinister - $4 HD iTunes, Vudu, GP (1 Left)
• Skyfall - $4 HD Vudu/GP (2 Left)
• Sleepless - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• Son of God - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• TinTin (Speilberg) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Trolls - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Turbo - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Unbroken - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Underworld: Awakening - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• Vivo - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• When The Game Stands Tall - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• White House Down - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Zero Dark Thirty - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Zeros and Ones (2022) - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
submitted by ShootingIn8k to DigitalCodeSELL [link] [comments]
Trying to clear out my codes! If someone wants to buy every single code for a deep discount HMU I’ll sell orders of $100 or more for 40% OFF, $200 for 50% OFF, $300 for 60% OFF, $400 for 70% OFF and $500 for 75% OFF!!
Just went through and dropped some prices! Not interested in discussing discounts on single codes.
Codes Never Split
Paypal f+f
New Pickups
• 3:10 To Yuma - $6 4K Vudu (1 Left)
• 65 - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• 80 For Brady - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Alien 6-Film Collection - $12 HD MA (2 Left)
• American Frontier Trilogy (Wind River, Hell or High Water, Sicario) - $9 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Amsterdam - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Ant-Man: Quantumania - $8 4K MA (1 Left)
• Ant-Man: Quantumania - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Babylon - $7 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• Banshees of Inisherin - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Batman - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• Beast - $6 HD MA (2 Left)
• Belly - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Beverly Hills Cop II - $8 4K Vudu (1 Left)
• Bodies, Bodies, Bodies (A24) - $7 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Bullet Train - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• Call Jane - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Clerk III - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Cocaine Bear - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Creed III - $12 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Creed Trilogy - $18 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Devotion (2022) - $8 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Don't Worry Darling - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Dreamgirls - $5 HD Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Theives - $10 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Empire of Light - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Escape From LA - $8 4K Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• E.T. - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Everything Everywhere All At Once - $6 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• The Expendables 1-3 - $5 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• The Fablemans - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Fantastic Beasts 1-3 - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Flashdance - $6 4K Vudu, iTunes (2 Left)
• For the Love of Money (2021) - $5 HD Vudu/GP (1 Left)
• Frozen (Disney) - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Frozen II (Disney) - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Green Mile - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Heat 4K - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Highlander - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Hot Seat (2022) - $6 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• Interstellar - $6 4K itunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Jaws - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Jurassic World: Ultimate Collection (6 Movies) - $18 HD MA (1 Left)
• Knock at the Cabin - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Licorice Pizza - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Lightyear - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Lilo & Stich 2-Film Collection - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Lost City - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Mack & Rita - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Magic Mike 3 - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Marlowe - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• M3gan - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Men (A24) (2022) - $6 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• Menu - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Midsommar - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Missing (2023) - $9 HD MA (1 Left)
• Moonfall - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Nightmare Alley - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Nope - $6 4K MA (2 Left)
• The Northman - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Old Way (2023 Nick Cage) - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Pearl (A24) - $5 HD Vudu (2 Left)
• Plane - $8 4K Vudu, iTunes (1 Left)
• Pulp Fiction - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• A Quiet Place 1 & 2 - $8 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Rambo 5-Film Collection - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Rambo: First Blood - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Rambo: Last Blood - $12 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• The Requin - $6 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• The Rescuers 1 & 2 - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Reservoir Dogs - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Rocketman - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Rocky: The Knockout Collection 1-4 - $18 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Seriously Red - $6 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $9 4K MA
• She Said - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Smile - $7 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Sonic 2 - $5 4K iTunes/vudu (1 Left)
• Strange World - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Spinning Gold - $7 HD MA (1 Left)
• Supercell - $7 HD VUDU (1 Left)
• SuperPets - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Taken 1-3 - $8 HD MA (1 Left)
• Tar - $9 4K MA (1 Left)
• Thor Love and Thunder - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Till - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Top Gun Maverick - $7 iTunes/Vudu (2 Left)
• Training Day - $7 MA (2 Left)
• Turning Red - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• The Untouchables - $6 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Walking Dead Final Season (Eleventh) - $8 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Warm Bodies - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• West Side Story (2021) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Where the Crawdads Sing - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Wolf of Wall Street - $6 4K Vudu/iTunes (3 Left)
• The Woman King - $7 4K MA (1 Left)
• Young Sherlock Holmes - $5 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
Collections/TV
• Columbia Classics Vol. 3 - $36 4K MA (1 Left) $6 per title (Not for sale individually)
- It Happened One Night
- From Here to Eternity
- To Sir, With Love
- The Last Picture Show (Director's Cut)
- Annie
- As Good As it Gets
• Game of Throne Season 4 - HD iTunes/vudu $3
• GOT: House of Dragon S1 - $18 4K Vudu (2 Left)
• Ghosts: Season One - $7 HD Vudu
• Jordan Peele 3-Movie Collection (Nope, Us, Get Out) - $12 HD MA (1 Left)
• Now You See Me 1&2 - $8 HD Vudu (1 Left)
Disney/Marvel/Star Wars (Unsplit, No DMR)
• Avengers: Endgame - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Avengers: Endgame - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Beauty and the Beast (Live Action) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The BFG - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Black Panther - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Call of the Wild - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Captain Marvel - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Cruella - $8 4K MA (1 Left)
• Disney Nature: Bears - $5 HD MA
• Finding Dory - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• The Finest Hours - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Frozen - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Inside Out - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Iron Man 3 - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Jungle Book (Live Action) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Maleficent - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Moana - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Oz The Great And Powerful - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Saving Mr. Banks - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Sleeping Beauty - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Star Wars: Force Awakens - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Star Wars: Rogue One - $4 HD MA (3 Left)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Thor: Dark World - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Wreck it Ralph 2 - $5 HD MA (2 Left)
• Zootopia - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
4K Movies
• Almost Famous - $7 4K iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Arrival - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Bad Boys for Life - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Bourne Legacy - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Deadpool - $5 4K MA (2 Left)
• Despicable Me 2 - $4 4K iTunes (3 Left)
• Dirty Dancing - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Escape Plan 2 - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Fast & Furious 6 (Extended) - $4 4K MA (1 Left)
• Fast & Furious 7 (Extended) - $4 4K MA (1 Left)
• Fate of the Furious + Extended - $3 4K MA (Extended Director's Cut is HD) (FREE WITH ANY PURCHASE OVER $5)
• Fifty Shades of Grey - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Force of Nature (2020) - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Hidden Figures - $5 4K MA (iTunes Redeem) (1 Left)
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• The Hunger Games - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $4 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $4 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Jack Reacher - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Jason Bourne - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Justice League - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Kingsman: The Golden Circle - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Life of Pi - $5 4K MA (iTunes Redeem) (1 Left)
• The Martian - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Mile 22 (2018) - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Mission: Impossible: Fallout - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Pitch Perfect - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Red 2 - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• The Revenant - $6 4K MA (1 Left)
• Secret Garden (2020) - $6 4K iTunes (1 Left)
• Secret Life of Pets - $5 4K MA (1 Left)
• Star Trek: Into Darkness - $4 4K iTunes (3 Left)
• Transformers: Age of Extinction - $5 4K iTunes (HD VUDU available) (2 Left)
• Transformers: The Last Knight - $5 4K iTunes (HD VUDU available) (1 Left)
• Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $4 4K iTunes (2 Left)
• xxx Xander Cage - $5 4K iTunes (1 Left)
HD Movies
• 12 Years A Slave - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• 2 Guns - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• 42 - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• About Time - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Amazing Spider-man - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• American Hustle - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Anchorman 2 - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Book of Life - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Boyhood (Linklater) - $5 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Breaking In (Unrated) - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Bring It On: Worldwide #Cheersmack - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• A Christmas Story 2 - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Dolphin Tale - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Escape From Planet Earth - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Extremely Loud Incredibly Close - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Ferdinand - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Flight - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Focus - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• A Good Day to Die Hard (Extended Edition) - $4 HD MA (2 Left)
• Grease 2 - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• The Greatest Showman - $4 HD MA (3 Left)
• The Hate U Give - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Home - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Host (2013) - $3 iTunes Redeem Port to MA (1 Left) Not Bong Joon-ho
• Hugo - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• If Beale Street Could Talk - $6 HD MA (1 Left)
• Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Kung Fu Panda - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Les Miserables - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Marvel's Iron Man & Hulk: Heroes United - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Midway - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Noah - $4 HD Vudu/iTunes
• Now You See Me - $4 HD Vudu/iTunes (1 Left)
• Paddington - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Parental Guidance - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Possession - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Prometheus - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Reclaim - $4 HD Vudu (1 Left)
• Rise of the Guardians - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Robocop - $4 HD Vudu/GP (1 Left)
• Safe House - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Second Act - $3 iTunes (2 Left)
• The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Secret Life of Pets - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• The Shack - $4 HD iTunes/Vudu (1 Left)
• Silver Linings Playbook - $4 HD Vudu
• Sinister - $4 HD iTunes, Vudu, GP (1 Left)
• Skyfall - $4 HD Vudu/GP (2 Left)
• Sleepless - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• Son of God - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• TinTin (Speilberg) - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• Trolls - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Turbo - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Unbroken - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Underworld: Awakening - $3 HD MA (1 Left)
• Vivo - $5 HD MA (1 Left)
• When The Game Stands Tall - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• White House Down - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Zero Dark Thirty - $4 HD MA (1 Left)
• Zeros and Ones (2022) - $5 HD Vudu (1 Left)
2023.06.02 23:33 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
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A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
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We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
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But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
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Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
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What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
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Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
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May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
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Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:32 reverett7 33 y/o advice on 401k decision
Hi!
Looking for some advice on 401k deferrals and general savings. Overall, I’d like to decide how to carve up my investing and I’m not too sure how to handle it or if I’m even doing it right.
Age: 33 Total pre-tax income per month: $14,166 Total after taxes/deductions income per month: $6,600 Monthly mortgage: $2,700 Car payment: $780 Other bills or basics (food, utilities, car insurance, etc.): $850 Total left per month to save or spend: $2,240
Current value of contributions in my 401k: 85,000. Up until now this has been 3% pre tax and 8% Roth. Considering going to 12% Roth and staying 3% traditional. I honestly don’t know why I chose those percentage splits to defer, which is where I could use a bit of help.
I have a cash emergency fund of 3 months in salary. Not sure if this should be more or where to put the cash. My company has given me stock options that are in the midst of vesting, worth $120k currently but that could change for better or worse depending on how the business does over the next few years. Outlook is bright in the Benefits SaaS world, but you never know. Value of private stock options has gone from $20 strike price to $160 in just two years.
I also have about $10,000 in stocks spread across pretty high-risk investments in tech (Alibaba, Sea Limited - I for sure bought high on these guys and was new to investing). I believe I need to invest in VTI or something a bit less risky/spread out moving forward, but could be wrong.
My company matches 50% up to 10%, so I am already getting the max match from them for the free money.
Overall: - How should I structure my 401k contributions in Roth vs traditional, or does it even matter? I expect my salary to continue to grow. It’s doubled in the last 5 years, but won’t continue at that speed I feel like. - Any suggestions on investing or savings? Would me sharing anything else help? - where would you put your money if you were me? - any lessons you’ve learned from investing?
Thanks for any advice you all might have to share!
submitted by reverett7 to personalfinance [link] [comments]
Looking for some advice on 401k deferrals and general savings. Overall, I’d like to decide how to carve up my investing and I’m not too sure how to handle it or if I’m even doing it right.
Age: 33 Total pre-tax income per month: $14,166 Total after taxes/deductions income per month: $6,600 Monthly mortgage: $2,700 Car payment: $780 Other bills or basics (food, utilities, car insurance, etc.): $850 Total left per month to save or spend: $2,240
Current value of contributions in my 401k: 85,000. Up until now this has been 3% pre tax and 8% Roth. Considering going to 12% Roth and staying 3% traditional. I honestly don’t know why I chose those percentage splits to defer, which is where I could use a bit of help.
I have a cash emergency fund of 3 months in salary. Not sure if this should be more or where to put the cash. My company has given me stock options that are in the midst of vesting, worth $120k currently but that could change for better or worse depending on how the business does over the next few years. Outlook is bright in the Benefits SaaS world, but you never know. Value of private stock options has gone from $20 strike price to $160 in just two years.
I also have about $10,000 in stocks spread across pretty high-risk investments in tech (Alibaba, Sea Limited - I for sure bought high on these guys and was new to investing). I believe I need to invest in VTI or something a bit less risky/spread out moving forward, but could be wrong.
My company matches 50% up to 10%, so I am already getting the max match from them for the free money.
Overall: - How should I structure my 401k contributions in Roth vs traditional, or does it even matter? I expect my salary to continue to grow. It’s doubled in the last 5 years, but won’t continue at that speed I feel like. - Any suggestions on investing or savings? Would me sharing anything else help? - where would you put your money if you were me? - any lessons you’ve learned from investing?
Thanks for any advice you all might have to share!
2023.06.02 23:31 jab136 Ticker that halted and didn't resume last week is still halted, there was also a halt that showed up in the data today that claims to have started on May 6 and resumed today. Problem is that May 6 was a Saturday. We really need a glitch better have my money flair.
 | There weren't a ton of halts during this short week, the highest day was yesterday with 29 halts on 11 tickers. The 20 day average dropped from the 90th percentile last Friday down to just barely in the 70th percentile today because it lost the 5 days from about a month ago when there were an average of more than 100 halts per day. The 50 day average remained in the 80th percentile all week. submitted by jab136 to Superstonk [link] [comments] Ok, now on to my regular post... Disclaimer due to recent issues in relation to brigading. I am simply attempting to provide a metric for market wide volatility as a possible alternative to other volatility indices such as VIX. I will talk about quite a few tickers other than GME, but that is simply an attempt to comment on odd or interesting behavior from those stocks that didn't match with the average. I am not advocating for or against any of those other tickers, simply attempting to give data and context for that data. I originally started looking at halt data when I got curious about which other stocks halted between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of 2021 to see if I could find a pattern or some interesting data that might be useful down the line. For anyone wondering what use it is to have a volatility index or why an alternative to VIX could be useful, this comment chain from my post on December 26th 2022 gives a pretty good ELIA. Also, there has been a lot of chatter on and off over the last few years about VIX and I for one would love to have an alternative that it can just be compared to since more data is always better IMO. VIX ELIA Using education tag this week because of the glitched tickers. Previous posts on this topic An analysis of all of the stocks that halted in the first minute of trading on 1/24/23. (part 1 part 2) Daily post about 12/9 with highest number of halts on a single ticker in over 2 years. Recent daily tracking post with info about halts going way past 16:00:00 EST NYSE halt tracking page is seeing some glitches (or possible just odd behavior) over the last few days. (Posted 9/30) Market Wide Limit Up Limit Down (LULD halts) significantly higher than normal. Over 100 halts today on 28 different tickers. (posted on August 2) An analysis of every stock that had an LULD halt between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of last year. (posted June 15) Adding a further TLDR per mod request; LULD halts are volatility halts on a specific ticker that halts trading for a minimum of 5 minutes on that ticker. Several months ago I realized that the NYSE records all the halts that happen every trading day and save them on a website. So knowing this, I wondered if I could possibly find other tickers that had a significant number of halts between Jan 27 and Jan 29 of last year. When I looked at the data, I found a lot of the usual suspects and a few other tickers that hadn't really been discussed previously very much as possible swap basket stocks. I also found that, while the volume of halts did spike in that period last year, the highest period by far in the available data was in mid March 2020. So I theorized that halts are likely correlated to market volatility and may provide an alternative metric to VIX. There has also been some odd activity with resume times for some halts going significantly into after hours (halts typically resume by 16:00:01 EST at the latest).Ok, now that that is out of the way, I have continued monitoring the NYSE page that tracks halts. Wednesday, and Thursday both had halts going into the closing bell this week. Both days had a resume at 16:00:00 EST which is completely normal. However there are now 2 tickers that are having very odd behavior with multi day halts. As I posted on Monday there was a ticker that had a halt last Wednesday 5/24 that hadn't resumed by the end of last week. It has remained halted through this entire week and is still showing up in the halts data. The historic data is also showing several halts all starting at the same time on that ticker when it halted last week, I am only including a single halt. There was another ticker that had very odd behavior in terms of a nearly month long halt that started on a Saturday somehow. It had not shown up previously as a volatility (LULD) halt so I am not completely certain what is going on. There was only one ticker this week that had more than 10 halts, that ticker was SDA (SunCar Technology Group Inc.) . This seems to be a chinese company that deals in auto and truck insurance. The news page on yahoo has absolutely no news for this company however it appears that something is definitely going on with it over the last few months. It was trading very steadily at around $10 for years, and then on April 14 it dropped to close at $8 after hitting a low of $6.71. It has been very volatile ever since, and then it had 28 halts this week. 15 of the halts were on Tuesday when it went from an opening price of $18.61 to a closing price of $43.05 (+309.61%) which was also the daily high. It leveled off a bit yesterday and had a very volatile day (low was $26.63, high was $45.73) however it closed at $43.31. It plummeted today, opening all the way down at $31.06, it had a high of $40.35 and closed at $21.34 (-46.20%). I have absolutely no idea what exactly is going on but something is definitely going on. MEOA (Minority Equality Opportunities Acquisition Inc) is a shell company or SPAC out of Texas. It has been trading for a while. It was supposed to have it's shareholders meeting on last Tuesday (5/23), but it was postponed to Wednesday, then to Friday then again to this past Wednesday (5/31). It closed last Tuesday at $11.05, then rocketed to a high of $43.50 before falling down to $26.54 at the time of the halt. It has not resumed and no trades have been made since then. It had 15 halts last Wednesday. It doesn't have another shareholder meeting postponement on yahoo finance, but it also still hasn't resumed. SNMP (Evolve Transition Infrastructure LP) is an oil and gas company out of Texas. It has been trading for a while but has been having some issues recently meeting the continued listing requirements since it is trading at just $0.06 per share currently. Today's data from the NYSE lists it as having been paused on 5/6/2023 at 12:03:15 EST and shows a resume today at 09:35:25. Adding to my confusion here is the fact that it has been trading for that entire period and was not listed previously in the data from that week. This is a penny stock so it could be something related to that, but IDK. The table with halts that had multi day halts or halts without a resume time is going to stay at the top of the post this week because of MEOA and SNMP. All tickers that have halted one day and not resumed until the next or don't have a resume date on NYSE page
The daily, 5 day, and 20 day total halts are a simple sum (sum the tickers from the data for the daily, sum the daily totals for the multi day totals). The Daily tickers with halts, 5 day total tickers with halts, and 20 day total tickers with halts only count any individual ticker once. If a ticker has 5 halts in one day, it still only counts as 1 ticker that day. If a ticker halts 3 different days it only counts as ticker in the 5 or 20 day totals. All of the percentages are actually percentiles and are calculated as percentile=100*(1-x/n) where x is the number of days with an equal or higher number of halts than the day being looked at and n is the number of days in the data (891 this week). I am also including a table giving the cutoff values for 70th, 80th and 90th percentiles in total and unique halts for the daily, 5 day, 20 day, and 50 day averages. This value will change from week to week and be applied retroactively to all past dates. Percentile target values
Total halts comparisons
No tickers that halted between Jan 22 and Feb 2 of 2021 had any halts this week. Here is the table with the halts on GME and the Headphone stock during the sneeze these two tickers get mentioned every week for obvious reasons on GME, but Headphone actually had more total halts and only 1 less day in a row with halts than we did.
52 week total halts 52 week unique halts Current halts Current unique halts Total halts going back to 2019 for scale Unique halts data going back to 2019 for scale Ratio of total halts to unique tickers Total halts daily distribution Unique halts daily distribution Top 10 days with most tickers with halts since August 2019
Here are the plots for each full calendar year, as well as the 2 other periods where total halts broke 100 in a single day 2020 total halts 2020 unique halts 2021 total halts 2021 unique halts 2022 total halts 2022 unique halts Pandemic crash total halts Pandemic crash unique halts Sneeze total halts Sneeze unique halts |