As per usual, here are a few quick hits to get us started:

• The Pitcher List player pages are an amazing tool. For starting pitchers, you see their rank on The List AND you can check their game logs for the SP Round-up notes for those games. It's the first resource I go to when researching SPs. Our hitter pages are cool too, as we have Statcast data that we improve upon using additional data points (like batted ball direction when calculating expected stats).
• Jack Suwinski is mostly still the same guy as we thought before (lots of walks, lots of whiffs, lots of power), though it's worth noting he's doing better with balls in the zone in May than he did in April—his 15-game rolling average is above 80% for basically the first time all season. Z-Contact is the stat I'm tracking most for him, as he continues to show he isn't going to chase pitches in 2023.
• If you're holding Christopher Morel in 12-team redraft leagues, you think he can be a top-100 hitter for the rest of the season. I don't and would be looking at the wire to see if upgrades are available. That hot streak was cool but he didn't display any new skills, he just had better results.
• Zach McKinstry, Royce Lewis, Jake McCarthy, and Jordan Walker all have a better flooupside than Morel and I'd make the move in a heartbeat.
• Speaking of Jordan Walker, he appears to have improved his pitch selection. The question for 2023 is more playing time than performance for me—he'll hit eventually.
• Rooker, J. Duran, and Outman are better players than Morel, but I'd probably be looking at the wire in 12-teamers if I roster them as well.
• Jake Burger, Jorge Mateo, and Paul DeJong should be replaced ASAP—unless you're in a VERY deep league, these guys are going to keep hurting you more than they help you.
• I'd rather have Josh Jung over Spencer Steer and it's not very close. Steer's long-term upside is more of a corner infielder in fantasy, while Jung has the power to be a solid third baseman inside the top-12 at the position.
• I don't dislike Matt McLain—I just think his hit tool is not this good. Every single red flag related to luck is waving. He's worth rostering in every format because he is a legitimate prospect, but 10- and 12-team managers shouldn't be counting on him as their starting shortstop for the rest of the season. As long as he keeps hitting second, though, there's value to be gained.
• If you don't have many IL slots in your league and aren't sure what to do with Kris Bryant, go ahead and drop him.
• Owen Miller still just looks like the same guy he was in 2022. He's a useful streamer right now, but he won't be a hold when he cools off or if a guy with a top-100 hitter upside becomes available.
• I don't think Elly De La Cruz is coming up in the next two weeks (the 5 home runs and 7 steals are cool, but 21 Ks in his last 69 PA is way less cool), and if I had to bet, it'd probably be at the end of June or even early July (around the ASB). The only way to get him time is to take it away from someone else, and it'd probably need to be McLain or India—both of whom are hitting well.
• Generally speaking, a 28-30% strikeout rate in the minors rarely gets better when they come to the majors. As a very broad rule-of-thumb, I tend to expect at least a 5-point increase on that K% when they hit the big leagues.
• Ronny Mauricio could be up sooner than De La Cruz, but playing time is a big question mark. Canha giving way to McNeil in the OF to let Mauricio play 2B would make sense if Canha wasn't hitting well, but he is (.271/.354/.457 since May 1).
• Willi Castro is super hot right now, but he's a really weird player who I wouldn't look at as anything more than a streamer.

You can, of course, find all of our stuff here: https://www.pitcherlist.com/

As per usual, here are a few quick hits to get us started:
​

• Christopher Morel is not a top-100 hitter ROS. Sure, he might finish there due to this Aristedes Aquino-like surge he's been on, but the contact issues are huge red flags. He's lost his starting role due to strikeouts and slumps before (as recently as Spring Training), and it wouldn't be a shock if he did so again. Seriously, this guy whiffs a LOT, even at stuff in the zone.
• In fact, if you can trade Morel for a top 75-100 hitter, you should probably do it. Most of the juice Morel will likely provide this season has already been squeezed.
• Speaking of poor zone contact, Brent Rooker has been fading hard the last few weeks. I think Rooker is a better bet to be a top-100 guy the rest of the season than Morel, but this slump is a pretty good example of how things can go for hitters who struggle with stuff in the zone.
• Other players with zone contact issues:
  • James Outman, Gunnar Henderson, MJ Melendez, Brian Anderson, and Joey Wiemer all whiff in the zone and have already shown us the highs and lows (though Gunnar is only just starting to get to an upswing).
  • Matt Olson, Aaron Judge, and Randy Arozarena also have zone contact issues, but are among the chosen few who can overcome it consistently.
  • Trea Turner is uncharacteristically whiffing on stuff in the zone. Not sure why.
• Paul DeJong does this every year. He's hot for 2-4 weeks (maybe 6 if you're lucky), then he goes back to being a reserve-level hitter. Run with it while you can, but be ready to move on.
• Everything I said about Paul DeJong also applies to Owen Miller.
• If Nolan Gorman can keep that strikeout rate south of 30%, he's got a top-50 to top-75 upside.
• If you want to scoop up Matt McClain or Mickey Moniak to stream, that's fine. McClain has a bright future, maybe, but right now that stat line is driven almost entirely by batted-ball luck. Ditto Moniak, though I think his long-term ceiling is much lower than McClain's.
• In other words, DeJong, O. Miller, McClain, and Moniak all feel a lot to me like D. Fletcher and C. Schmitt, whom you can drop for something more fun if you haven't already. Keep riding the wave while they're hot, of course, but you're going to be moving on sooner rather than later.

You can, of course, find all of our stuff here: https://www.pitcherlist.com/

Andy Ibanez (1B/3B, Detroit Tigers) - BUY
Yeah, I really can’t believe this one either. I mean, he’s hitting .181 with 1 homer, no speed, he’s currently mired in an 0-for-20 backslide and 2 for his last 37. Have I lost my mind?! Well, only sort of. As little sense as it makes, during this slump he’s actually gotten better according to Statcast. How is that possible?! Okay I need to stop yelling to the heavens on my keyboard. But really, he has a .382 xwOBA over his last 50 PA, a big increase from his .298 mark in his previous 50. If that seems crazy, just check his expected statistics: an xBA of .287 and an xSLG of .490. So basically, he’s secretly Nick Castellanos.
Full article - https://www.pitcherlist.com/buy-sell-5-25-identifying-who-to-add-and-who-to-drop/ Actually, his way of getting to his success is similar to Casty in that it’s all about the hard hits, which is odd since he’s been a soft hit guy until now. Yet this year, his hard hit rate took a massive leap from 40% career to an elite 53% and a plus barrel% of 10%. Maybe that’s why he rates as baseball’s unluckiest hitter when he qualifies. The home park of Comerica certainly is a factor in stealing some of his would-be power away, but I also think a .207 BABIP for a player with a 53% HardHit% is bound to regress. In AL-only, you can do worse as he should continue to play due to lack of alternatives for now.

Intro

Yesterday, I wrote about Adbert Alzolay and his potential ability to break out into the closer role for the Cubs (https://www.reddit.com/fantasybaseball/comments/13m31rw/adbert_alzolay_potential_closer_breakout_detailed/).
Today, I'm writing about my favorite player in baseball, Brett Baty.
I will tell you all that I am extremely biased, as I have several shares of Baty, he's my favorite prospect in years, and I am a die-hard Mets fan. That being said, I still believe in him from a fantasy baseball perspective for significant reason, and I wouldn't be touting his name from a fantasy perspective if I didn't believe he had significant fantasy value. I absolutely love Nimmo/McNeil, but I recognize that their value from a fantasy perspective is limited. Baty is different.

Why you should believe in Baty

Brett Baty is a pretty damn easy guy to believe in from any perspective. #1 hitting prospect in baseball, already showing significant signs of life and promise after just a month in the league. Let me highlight the specific reasons that he'll break out:

1) Brett Baty has the prospect pedigree

Baty, like I said before, was the #1 ranked prospect in the Mets system earlier this season and is a terrific hitting prospect. He has a 60 hit tool and 60 power tool,. Both are elite prospect-wise. He also has a very serviceable 45 run tool, which suggests some light SB upside and an ability to beat out some infield hits. He absolutely SMOKED the ball at Triple-A this year before being called up to the Mets. He slashed a .400 BA, .500 OBP, 1.386 OPS (that's kinda good lol), and 5 HRs through just 35 ABs in Triple-A.

2) Brett Baty has proven he belongs in the majors and has earned consistent playing time

I know he hasn't been the flashiest from a fantasy perspective, but any Mets fan on the planet will tell you that Baty should be the everyday third baseman, if he isn't already. Baty began the year platooning the third base role with Eduardo Escobar after he got called up, batting out of the 8th slot when put in the lineup. In just a month, Baty's fought his way into a near-everyday third base role and has risen to as high as 5th in the lineup, with potential to go even further up to the 2 hole (where the Mets haven't solidified a guy yet like they have with the 1, 3, and 4 slots with Nimmo, Lindor, and Alonso). Baty's also earning more and more playing time against lefties. Baty has a 102 wRC+ against lefties, which is average, but that's REALLY GOOD when we're talking about a leftie hitter who absolutely mashes against righties. If he can just be a league average hitter against lefties, Baty will be a true star in this league.
Let's talk about some more MLB stats from Baty so far.
2023 MLB Stats: .246 AVG (52nd percentile, average), .327 OBP (56th percentile, average), .432 SLG (63rd percentile, above average), 20.4% K% (62nd percentile, above average), 9.2% BB% (61st percentile, above average)
Keep in mind these are his SURFACE stats. His underlying metrics are much, MUCH better than this, which suggests some serious positive regression coming soon. As someone who's seen every Baty at bat as well, I'll tell you firsthand that he's been an extremely unlucky hitter thus far this season, with a lotttttt of hard contact to gaps in the outfield being met with incredible defensive plays.
And these are far from bad stats, especially for a rookie! Even if we just look at these, Baty is an elite hitting prospect who has already performed as an average to above average hitter in the MLB through just a month of action, in terms of both hitting and plate discipline.

3) Baty passes the eye test with flying colors

There's a lot of things that metrics can't measure, but watching baseball can. One of the reasons I've been so excited about Baty as a prospect is because of his swing. Baty's bat speed is absolutely terrific.
https://twitter.com/KyleGelling/status/1658633551049359362?s=20
Check out how Baty took this pitch the other way for a home run last night: https://twitter.com/SNYtv/status/1659721270714310659?s=20
I think anyone that watches a lot of baseball can get really excited about this swing. Baty has shown the ability, both in the minors and majors, to drive the ball all over the field at high EVs. We'll get into the exact metrics later (btw, his metrics are AMAZING), but even just looking at his swing tells me we're looking at someone really special here.
Another thing is that Baty's plate discipline has been terrific and extremely well polished for a rookie. This is a REALLY, REALLY good sign for potential fantasy relevance throughout the season, as rookies tend to struggle significantly with plate discipline, but Baty's eye has been great. Again, I'll get to metrics on this in just a moment, but as someone who's watched every inning of every Mets game this year, I'm here to tell you it's legitimate. Baty is a surprisingly patient hitter with a great eye.
The last thing is Baty's defense. Baty's defense has been stellar all year, and I even have some metrics for that, as Baty's OOA (Outs Above Average) is in the 88th percentile, truly elite defense. Baty also has a 60 grade arm score as a prospect, and from watching Baty, I'll tell you the dude can absolutely throw dudes out. I know no one cares about defense directly for fantasy unless you play in scoring formats that count defense (which most don't), but indirectly, Baty's defensive profile and ability gives him an ENORMOUS advantage over both Eduardo Escobar and Mark Vientos when fighting for playing time at the hot corner. Speaking of which...

4) The Mets are actively trying to find ways to get Baty in the lineup every game

With the callup of Mark Vientos, there's a lot of people worried about it potentially cutting into Baty's playing time, especially with how the Mets rookies have been managed so far throughout the season. I'm here to tell you there's not too much reason to worry, for a few reasons.
-The Mets rookie prospects have all been put on a similar development plan after the call up. Baty and Alvarez both started in diminished roles and worked their way into the starting lineup and near everyday roles. Alvarez has completely seized the Mets starting catching role and is in the midst of his own breakout, which I'll do a writeup on probably tomorrow. Baty started in a diminished role and has gotten more and more playing time. There's no reason to believe that the Mets will seek to diminish Baty's role, just based on the trend we've been seeing, which is more and more opportunities and playing time throughout the season. Baty has already gone from a platoon 3B only playing against righties to a near everyday third baseman who pinch hits frequently even when not starting, and this will only continue to improve. I understand the worries about Vientos, so let me get to that...
-The Mets want Baty in the lineup so badly that they're willing to try him out in the outfield. The Mets recently reported that "Baty could shift to left field on occasion as the Mets try to find ways to get Mark Vientos into the lineup, Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic report." This is awesome for fantasy for a number of reasons. If Baty starts getting outfield starts to get Vientos some starts at 3B, he'll gain CI/IF/OF/3B/LF, and positional eligibility for fantasy is always a great thing!
-Mets fans absolutely adore Baty and NY media pressure is a real thing. The Mets are currently in the midst of a 3 game win streak, coming off a series win against the Rays (their first series win in over a month). Baty has been pivotal and one of the lone bright spots for the Mets this season. Even with a recent slump and the Vientos callup, Baty continues to get consistent starts at third base and is in absolutely no danger of being sent down like a prospect like Jordan Walker was, as Baty has pretty clearly established himself as the best third baseman in the Mets organization and the third baseman of the future. If Baty gets sent down, or removed from a starting role for more than the sporadic rest day, Mets fans will genuinely riot. I know this is very anecdotal and hard to quantify, but the New York fan pressure/sports media is a very real thing. Baty has won the hearts of the fans and Mets management.

5) Baty's StatCast and underlying metrics suggest significant positive regression coming and a huge potential breakout down the stretch

Alright, let's get into the true meat of this breakdown.
Using PitcherList for the some underlying detailed metrics first, check out Baty's pages here for yourself for the hype train:
https://www.pitcherlist.com/playebrett-baty/
23.5% HFB% (87th percentile, elite): Baty's HR to flyball rate is elite. His EV numbers and StatCast data, which we'll get into later, isn't just empty calories. When he hits the ball in the air, it's going for home runs at an elite rate. This also backs up what I said earlier about his swing, as he's not lifting the ball too much or getting under it too much.
30.6% IPA% (86th percentile, elite): Baty's Ideal Plate Appearance numbers are elite. This is so, so good. It tells us that he has both terrific plate discipline and tends to barrel the ball during those appearances. This is genuinely an amazing stat for a ROOKIE HITTER and this will only continue to improve throughout this season and his career. Rookies tend to have ISSUES with plate discipline and working the count and here's Baty, already elite as an MLB hitter in IPA%.
37.8% HC% (97th percentile, BEYOND elite): Let's get really excited now. Baty makes hard contact in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. That's really fucking good. When he hits the ball, he absolutely smokes it. You don't need me to tell you that hit ball hard = good.
8.8% Brl% (63rd percentile, above average): This is sort of supplementary to the hard contact numbers, but Baty barrels the ball at an above average rate as well. Again, don't need me to tell you that barreling a baseball is good. You know this.
Let's get into the StatCast numbers for some more underlying metrics: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playebrett-baty-683146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Avg Exit Velocity (92.5 mph): 90th percentile, very elite: That's what you like to see. Baty's StatCast page is very, very red and it starts with this number. Baty hits the ball at elite levels of exit velocity. in Triple A, Baty was hitting the ball at higher average exit velocities than Fernando Tatis Jr., who was in Triple A on steroid suspension. That's pretty cool.
Max Exit Velocity (113.7 mph): 92nd percentile, very elite: So not only is Baty's average exit velocity very high, his max is also really high. So he's hitting the ball at very elite exit velocities on average and his hardest hit balls also profile as elite.
HardHit% (54.4%): 94th percentile, very elite: Again, Baty hit ball hard. You love to see it. He also hits a LOT of hard hit balls.
xWOBA (.332): 85th percentile, elite: So it's looking like Baty can hit. The fact that these numbers are so high despite his surface stats being rather pedestrian suggests, again, a really significant breakthrough coming as soon as these balls just start falling and he stops getting unlucky. xWOBA is a really good metric for underlying batted ball performance and seeing this in the 85th percentile is such a good sign.
xBA (.284): 84th percentile, elite: So not only his is xWOBA elite, so is his xBA. Again, the fact that these numbers are SO HIGH compared to his actual numbers suggests a LOTTTTT of unluckiness so far in his young career, and positive regression is coming. There's not a lot of guys who have this much red on their StatCast page as rookies that don't have the actual numbers to back it up. Most of the ones that do end up breaking through real quick.
xSLG (.483): 85th percentile, elite: See above. Pretty much every measurable analytic that attempts to predict batted balls based on StatCast says that Baty is ALREADY an elite hitter, and the numbers just don't show it yet.
Chase Rate: 88th percentile, elite: His plate discipline is elite. He doesn't chase balls out of the zone at high rates. I told you this earlier, but having the metric to definably back it up doesn't hurt.

TL;DR for Metrics

So pretty much every single metric we have to measure hitters and underlying hitting performance says that Baty is ALREADY an elite hitter with elite plate discipline who's facing a large amount of bad luck. Even if, and this is an enormous stretch, EVEN IF you say metrics are fucking stupid and analytics are dumb, Baty is still hitting decently, just looking purely at his surface stats. And he has elite prospect pedigree, and is in an elite situation, and ignoring analytics/metrics is dumb and they all tell us he's due for significant positive regression and a breakout.

Breakdown/Prognostication

Breakdown

So here's what we got.
We have:
-A 23 year old leftie rookie third baseman. Youth is king when looking for breakouts. Baty's a leftie, which gives him a lot of value in terms of real life baseball and against mashing righties for your fantasy team. And he's league average against lefties!
-He's potentially going to also gain outfield eligibility soon, which is great for fantasy, and tells us the Mets want his bat in the lineup as much as possible.
-#1 prospect in the Mets system and has a 60 hit tool, 60 power tool, and 45 run tool, and completely tore up Triple-A this year
-He's hitting 5th for the Mets with the potential to rise even higher, as the Mets 2 hole in their lineup is completely up-for-grabs and Baty has already risen quickly up the lineup, from 8th to 5th in just a month
-Baty has posted average numbers against lefties while absolutely mashing righties, suggesting both the ability to secure a true everyday role (instead of the near everyday role he's already in right now) and the ability to not be a matchup-based bat for fantasy
-The Mets love him and the fans love him. The Mets have said openly that they're actively willing to explore playing him in the outfield just to keep his bat in the lineup (and get Vientos' bat in there as well). Baty's been one of the only bright spots for the Mets all year until recently. Speaking of which...
-The Mets might be getting hot. Being an elite hitter is great, but being an elite hitter in an elite lineup is even better, and being an elite hitter in an elite lineup and being at the top of that lineup is even better. Baty's already batting 5th, and like we've discussed, has the potential to rise even higher and be protected by Lindor and Alonso behind him, with Nimmo, an elite OBP player, in front of him for RBIs to drive in. The Mets have won their last 3 games against terrific competition (MLB-best Rays, Guardians) and look to have finally found some fire. The Mets lineup of Nimmo/Baty/LindoAlonso/McNeil/Vientos/Marte/Alvarez/Canha is genuinely elite on paper, and it looks like they're finally starting to figure it out.
-Baty might be getting hot. Baty was in a bit of a slump after his great start to the MLB, but he's been breaking out again recently, batting 4/13 (.308) in the last 4 days with 2 HRs and 3 RBI. This is a very small sample size, but it suggests that this might be the last time you're able to get on the Baty train before the breakout is truly broken out.
-He's shown enormous, rapid growth just over the course of a year. Baty, when called up last year, was exciting but very raw. In just a few months, he evolved into the best hitter in Triple-A, stepped up his plate discipline to elite levels, and began lifting the ball more. He's also improved his defense enormously and is a very plus-defender, which will both keep him in the lineup, give him an edge over EscobaVientos, and shows us that he has that DOG in him and knows how to improve and learn, a very important skill for young players to have.
-His surface stats this year are fine. They're not as flashy as they should be, and the underlying metrics suggest a lot of positive regression coming, but even the player he is right now is pretty damn good. His wRC+ against righties and lefties is great. He's a true asset to the Mets, and...
-His underlying metrics are bonkers. He profiles in the MLB, based on StatCast data, AS A ROOKIE, as an elite power hitter who can hit for an above-average average (I had a stroke typing this), with elite plate discipline and crazy high exit velocities, hard contact rates, and barrel rates. All of the underlying metrics say that he's due for SIGNIFICANT positive regression in terms of average, slugging percentage, OPS, and pretty much everything beyond.

Prognostication

Baty is just 30% rostered in Yahoo leagues. I expect this number to climb SIGNIFICANTLY during the coming weeks. #1 hitting prospects who raked in Triple A and have done well at the MLB level in their rookie years and have absolutely ludicrous StatCast pages who bat highly in (on-paper) elite MLB lineups do not grow on trees. If you have Baty, I think you should hold him. If you don't have Baty, I think you should pick him up.
We have every single reason to believe that an enormous breakout is coming. By all the underlying metrics, and based on what we've seen from him this year, he's an elite power hitter with elite plate discipline and the ability to hit for average, who's decently fast and potentially has some (limited, but nonetheless) SB upside and ability to beat out infield hits, who plays elite defense and is a staple in the Mets lineup and future. All of his underlying metrics suggest significant positive regression/breakout numbeers coming SOON. With the Mets and Baty both heating up, I would pick him up now before it's too late.

Conclusion

Thanks for reading! I'm aspiring to write for PitcherList for fantasy baseball and I'm looking to improve my writing and analysis so I can get there, so I'd really appreciate any feedback, positive or negative. Thanks again for reading and good luck winning your leagues!

Intro

Now that most of the closer situations in the MLB have settled to some degree (not you, Yankees, I have no idea what's going on over there), looking for a potential closer on waivers is really tricky. I'd like to highlight Adbert Alzolay today, a pitcher I really believe in who has a clear path to the closing role in Chicago.

Why you should believe in Alzolay's talent

Adbert Alzolay is a 28 year old reliever for the Chicago Cubs. Signed as an international free agent, he made his MLB debut in 2019.
Career Stats: 4.19 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 210:62 K:BB (195.1 IP)
Alright, let's talk about why he can be something special this year, specifically.
Alzolay has improved his stats significantly every year in the MLB, more than halving his WHIP from a 1.784 his rookie year to a .838 this year. His stats this year are pretty damn good, as he's shown himself to be statistically the best reliever in the Cubs bullpen.
2023 (so far): 1.99 ERA, .838 WHIP, 21:4 K:BB (22.2 IP)
Alzolay has flashed premier strikeout upside throughout his career, with an unbelievable 210:62 K:BB through his career through 195.1 IP. A 21:4 K:BB this year is a damn good ratio, although the K/IP isn't where you'd want it to be exactly, at 21:22.2 K:IP.
But baseball is, more than any sport, all about the underlying metrics and if something is sustainable. There's significant reason to believe that Alzolay's performance is not just sustainable, but that he'll likely continue to maintain low ratios while improving his K/IP significantly. Just based on his career performance, he's due for some positive regression for more Ks, as his 2023 K/IP (.946) is likely going to move closer towards his career K/9 (1.08).
PitcherList maintains a pretty terrific database for pitchers and metrics. If you want to browse through Alzolay's metrics yourself, check it out here: https://www.pitcherlist.com/playeadbert-alzolay/

Metrics

Here are the numbers you should be thinking about, with a breakdown of how it compares to other relievers in the MLB.
2.04 xERA: This is in the 92nd percentile for relievers this year. Elite xERA. So not only is his ERA elite (1.99 ERA, 82nd percentile), his ERA based off StatCast predictions is in an even higher pecentile, which only means good things for projecting him going further.
3.31 xFIP: This is in the 75th percentile for relievers this year. Above average xFIP. This metric does a really good job measuring talent specific to the closer role, as it measures ERA based on home runs, strikeouts, and walks, all of which are extremely relevant in close game situations where a closer is asked to hold a lead.
.84 WHIP: This is in the 90th percentile for relievers this year. Elite WHIP. He does a terrific job limiting walks and hits, essential for the closer role.
6.0 H/9: This is in the 74th percentile for relievers this year. Above average H/9. He does a good job limiting hits, essential for the closer role.
25.0% K%: This is in the 59th percentile for relievers this year. Average K%. This has to improve throughout the year, and I'm optimistic it will, due to his career stats and his underlying pitching metrics this year, which we'll get to in a bit.
4.8% BB%: This is in the 85th percentile for relievers this year. Elite BB%. He does not walk batters, essential for the closer role.
.246 BABIP: This is in the 72nd percentile for relievers this year. Above average BABIP. When batters make contact, they do not tend to fall for hits. Tied into this is...
19.5% hard contact percentage: This is in the 76th percentile for relievers this year. Above average HC%. He does a great job limiting hard contact with batters and missing barrels.
.40 H9: This is in the 75th percentile for relievers this year. Above average H9. Alzolay does not give up home runs, which is, again, essential for the closer role.
The rest: 12.2% SwStr% (55th percentile, average), 26.1% CSW% (22nd percentile, below average), 5.03 PLV (44th percentile, average). Alzolay's had trouble striking people out this year compared to year's past. We know that. These numbers are reason for some concern, as his lack of strikeouts tend to limit his upside, but the rule with closers tends to be that saves are king and strikeouts are luxury. Alzolay will never be Felix Bautista, but he can absolutely break out into an elite, top tier closer based on save opportunities and an incredible ability to limit walks, hits, and runs. He's also flashed a lot of K potential throughout his career, and his career numbers suggest positive regression occurring in this area as the season goes on. Additionally, closers tend to rack up more strikeouts than long relievers. Alzolay's been placed in the long relief role throughout the season, but is moving into more and more high leverage roles and save opportunities as the season goes on. Because Alzolay won't have to keep his arm stretched out for multiple innings, and instead just focus on the 9th, we'll likely see an increase in velocity and freshness, leading to more strikeouts if he does win the role.
So, we've got a damn good reliever who's posting career bests across the board in terms of the basic stats. In terms of the analytics, Alzolay posts an elite BB%, WHIP, and xERA. You don't need me to tell you those numbers are important for relievers and Alzolay is elite in all of them. He's above average in H9, HC%, BABIP, and H/9, suggesting that the numbers he's posting this year are sustainable and suited for the closer role. He's an average reliever in terms of K%, SwStr%, and PLV, which tells us he has limited strikeout upside, but again, this could easily change for the positive based on his career numbers and potential move to the closer role, where his arm doesn't have to be as stretched out and he can focus on just one inning. The ONLY metric Alzolay is below average in is CSW%, which is certainly something to think about, but I'm optimistic about this improving. Here's why.
Alzolay's slider and 4SB both feature above average SwStr%, with the slider at 73% and the 4SB at 65%. Alzolay's worst pitches are his sinker and cutter. Alzolay has been throwing the slider and 4SB 40% and 29% of the time, respectively. If Alzolay gets moved to the closer role, we'll likely see the same thing we see with every reliever transitioning into the role, a transition to a more focused pitch mix, likely super heavy on the slider and the 4SB and using the sinker, cutter, and changeup as purely mixup pitches rather than genuine 3rd/4th options in his repertoire. Throwing more sliders and 4SB will lead to an increase in SwStr% and CSW% for Alzolay overall.
TL;DR: Best reliever in Cubs bullpen, decently young, above average-elite in all closer-relevant metrics, significant reason to believe in an uptick in strikeouts/strikeout upside if transitioned fully into the closer role due to his pitch mix and the metrics on his 2 best pitches. And he's got a great path to an unsolidified closer job on a decent team, which we'll talk about now.

Why you should believe in Alzolay's path to the Cubs closer role

1): The Cubs closer situation is completely for the taking
The Cubs closer role is one of the few closer roles in the MLB that hasn't been clearly defined so far this season at this point. Brad Boxberger got the first shot at closer, but has landed on the IL and had already lost his job by the time that occurred due to underperformance.
The biggest question for Alzolay is if he can fully beat out Mark Leiter Jr., who's currently been in the mix for save opportunities. Alzolay is the team's 1A or 1B option for saves right now just based on recent opportunities, as Leiter has still been in the mix in late innings and in high leverage situations. But so has Alzolay. It's pretty hard to prognosticate exactly where the situation lies at the moment, as the Cubs haven't had a save opportunity in some time, but here's why I think Alzolay can fully shake Leiter Jr. and take the closing job completely.
2): Advanced metrics don't like Leiter Jr.
Stuff+ and PLV are both extremely low on Leiter Jr. While metrics are not "the truth" and no numbers can completely correlate directly to talent, I'm a big-time believer in Stuff+ and PLV. MLB pitching has gravitated more and more towards emphasizing velocity and spin rates on pitches, as these tend to equate pretty directly with pitching performance. Leiter Jr. has some of the lowest spin rate/velocity combinations in baseball.
3): The Cubs have more contract control on Alzolay and Alzolay is younger
Baseball is played in the real world, where talent isn't evaluated completely in a vacuum. I do believe Alzolay is more talented than Leiter Jr., but even if he wasn't, there's significant reason for the Cubs to try to convert Alzolay to a full-time closer over Leiter, as Alzolay's contract control and youth give him a significant edge over Leiter Jr. Teams want to save money. If Leiter Jr becomes a closer and they have to pay him soon, they will have to pay him more money. If Alzolay becomes a closer, the Cubs don't have to worry about paying him for quite some time, and his youth provides reason to believe he can grow further into the role, especially based on his performance this year and in high-leverage situations, as well as his pitch mix and underlying metrics projecting well into the closer role.
4): Alzolay has already begun to fill the closer role, and his recent performance is good
In the Cubs last save opportunity, where Leiter Jr. and Alzolay where both rested and healthy, the Cubs opted to use Alzolay over Leiter Jr. for the save, which Alzolay converted. Additionally, the Cubs have been careful to not use Alzolay in long relief, only using him in tune-up outings to keep him fresh, which indicates that they're saving him for save opportunities and close games/high leverage situations. In Leiter Jr's last outing in relief, he gave up 3 hits and 2 ERs in one inning, which is pretty bad. Meanwhile, Alzolay hasn't allowed an earned run since May 3rd. Additionally, albeit a small sample size, Alzolay has started striking out batters again, with 3 Ks through his last three outings in relief.
TL;DR: The Cubs closing situation is completely up in the air. Advanced metrics don't like Alzolay's competition, Mark Leiter Jr., as he posts some of the league's lowest spin rates and velocity, as well as Stuff+ and PLV. Alzolay's contract/team control situation and youth give him a significant edge from a management perspective over Leiter Jr. for choosing which one to make the full time closer. Alzolay has already begun to fill the closer role, getting the save in the Cubs last save opportunity when both Alzolay and Leiter Jr were rested/helathy, and has outperformed Leiter Jr. recently, with Alzolay performing well and Leiter Jr. blowing up against the Astros two days ago for 2 earned runs and 3 hits.

Summary/Prognostication

Adbert Alzolay is an extremely talented reliever, both by surface stats and underlying metrics, and has been the best reliever for the Cubs this year. The Cubs closing job is wide open and Alzolay has already stepped into the 1A closer role for the Cubs. Alzolay has outperformed Leiter Jr. and the Cubs have significant financial/team control incentive to make Alzolay the full-time closer. Alzolay's lack of strikeout upside is countered by both his career stats (which suggest positive regression this season) and by underlying factors, like his above average slide4SB SwStr% and CSW% metrics and a move to a full time closer role likely leading to increased velocity and a more focused pitch mix.
Adbert Alzolay is currently 7% rostered on Yahoo. If he secures the full-time closer role, which he is very much already on the path to doing, he's valuable in all leagues, as all full-time closers are. The state of the Cubs team and Alzolay's lack of strikeout upside limit his ceiling, but if his pitch mix changes in a shift to the closer role (as it likely will), he could easily end up as a top tier fantasy closer with strikeout upside, still below the elite tier due to the Cubs lack of closing opportunities, but top tier nonetheless. For now, Alzolay is a speculative add and someone I believe to be mid-low tier fantasy closer until he fully takes the closing job from Leiter Jr., with a very stable floor and a pretty high ceiling. I believe that Alzolay will start being added/rostered very soon in all formats and I believe that for closer-needy teams, he's easily the best readily available option, with a terrific floor and high upside that we have every reason and sign to believe will come to fruition.
Thanks for reading! I'm aspiring to write for PitcherList for fantasy baseball and I'm looking to improve my writing and analysis so I can get there, so I'd really appreciate any feedback, positive or negative. Thanks again for reading and good luck winning your leagues!

Apologies for not having an AMA last week! I'll try to make it up to y'all this week.
Here are a few quick hits to get us started:
(It's all batter talk, sorry!)
Adolis Garcia isn't chasing this season and I think he should be considered a top 5-7 OF ROS. If anyone thinks they are selling high and would take a top 10-15 OF for him, go buy. It's an upgrade.
People in real leagues dropped Luis Robert, and I understand why they did it. Here's the thing - top-30 caliber hitters should not be cut unless all hope is lost. He's turned his whole season around in 2 weeks. Players with this kind of talent can do that. Austin Riley and Matt Chapman are in the same boat. Gotta hold. Michael Harris II should be kept if all possible as well, but the struggle is real in 10-12 teamers with just 3 OF spots.
Gunnar Henderson is droppable in shallow leagues, though. Keep an eye on him, but yeesh.
Jorge Mateo is slumping badly because that's just the kind of player he is. You're stuck rostering him in deep leagues if you need that speed, but shallow leaguers can move on to the next schmo who flows.
Christopher Morel has huge contact issues and they were present in triple-A, too. He's got the talent to be worth an add, but don't be surprised when he goes through a 1-30 streak with 15 Ks. That's par for the course.
Jake Burger can hit, but that outfield gets crowded when Eloy returns (until someone else hits the IL, anyway). Be ready to move on if he becomes a part timer.
Dominic Fletcher and Casey Schmitt are hot and popular, but aren't priority adds for me. Neither has tons of upside. If you want to roll the dice go ahead - especially if you're holding on to one of the guys below. I'd rather add Jake Fraley, Alex Kiriloff, or others.
Ezequiel Duran might get a playing time squeeze with Seager back, though the injury to Jankowski might have been Duran's way in to the outfield.
If you're in a 10-12 team format with no CI or MI and only 3 OF, you can seriously consider cutting the following if you haven't already:
Alejandro Kirk, Brandon Drury, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Marsh, Jose Miranda, Mitch Haniger, Anthony Rendon, Patrick Wisdom, Jordan Walker (missing the call up hurts - especially to a retread like Mercado), Gunnar Henderson, Jose Abreu
Finally, here are some adds I'd consider as streamers or upside plays (rostered in <30% of ESPN Leagues):
Lars Nootbaar, Jake Fraley, Alex Kiriloff, Ezequiel Duran, Jake Burger, Nick Pratto, Jon Berti (speed only), Nick Senzel
I'm on mobile today, so apologies for the lack of links. You can, if course, find all of our stuff here: https://www.pitcherlist.com/

Tyler if you see this, I love you man, but you don’t know enough advance metrics to be classified as a baseball nerd. Tyler loves FIP, and FIP is indeed a great indicator of a pitcher’s performance, but like ERA it’s a very flawed stat. Let me introduce another stat that is important when evaluating a pitcher: SIERA. SIERA “love” strikeouts more than FIP, and hate walks more than FIP. Also, it takes into account the batted ball types (ground balls and flyballs are better than line drives). For example, Brayan Bello this year has a 4.89 FIP, but only a 3.87 SIERA. That’s because despite of his average strikeout and walk rates, his GB% is 61.9%, which is elite. This stat is also flawed, but a combination of FIP and SIERA is great for evaluating pitchers. If anyone is interested, Dan Richards of Pitcher List wrote a great piece on this.

I hope y'all enjoyed your time with Ben because now you're stuck with me again for the foreseeable future.
Here are a few quick hits to get us started:
(It's all batter talk, sorry!)

• Jarren Duran is interesting and insanely hot right now, but the long-term outlook is still very much in the air. His speed is the top tool for fantasy, and I'm not convinced the power he's showing sticks around for long. That said, Duran is more than worth a look as a 4th OF.
• Brent Rooker keeps hitting home runs in bunches, and the power is very real. I like that he's taking plenty of walks, and that's what he'll need to keep doing. Could be an Anthony Santander or Hunter Renfroe type, which is a good thing. I don't think he's better than that, though.
• I like that Brandon Drury has flashed the power lately, but the strikeouts are ugly. I'm not fully back on board quite yet.
• Willy Adames is slumping but is just fine. This current cold spell is within his normal range of outcomes over smaller samples. On a positive note, I'm digging the extra walks.
• You can't cut Luis Robert. Sorry, but I just can't let you yet. The talent is too much.
• If you're in a 10-12 team format with no CI or MI and only 3 OF, you can seriously consider cutting the following if you haven't already:
  • Ty France
  • Jose Abreu
  • Michael Conforto
  • Alec Bohm
  • Vaughn Grissom
  • Amed Rosario
  • Andrew McCutchen
  • Brendan Donovan
• Here are some guys who were hot and who you don't need to be loyal to in 10-12 teamers:
  • Myles Straw
  • Jeimer Candelario
  • Spencer Steer
  • Bryson Stott
  • Trevor Larnach
  • Rodolfo Castro
  • Austin Hays
  • Josh Rojas (back to a platoon)
  • Jordan Walker (UNLESS you have spot for minor leaguers OR deeper benches and can afford the spot)
  • Brian Anderson (he's been fine, but he's not super exciting)
• Here are some guys who should be kept a little longer, but it's time to worry a bit:
  • Nolan Gorman
  • Alec Bohm
  • Jonathan India
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes
  • Esteury Ruiz (I still think he's Billy Hamilton)
  • Gunnar Henderson
  • Jack Suwinski (not MUCH longer)
• Finally, here are some adds I'd consider as streamers or upside plays (rostered in <35% of ESPN Leagues)
  • Josh Jung (Power) - I'd add him anywhere I could find him
  • Ezequiel Duran (PoweSpeed)
  • LaMonte Wade Jr (Contact/Runs)
  • Joey Gallo (Power)
  • Isaac Paredes (Power)

​
LINKS:

• THE LIST
  
• HITTER LIST
  
• THE HOLD UP
  
• CLOSING TIME
  
• SV+H RANKS
  
• SP ROUNDUP
  
• BATTER'S BOX
  
• SP STREAMERS
  
• GOING DEEP
  

Hey folks, wanted to do a writeup on some guys I've been looking into as speculative adds. Every year, there tends to be a guy who makes a jump into the elite tier at closer around the middle of the season, whether it's due to the trade deadline or winning the job. Now seems like a good time to get some of these potential dudes on your roster, especially if you're hurting for saves. Let's talk!
These are not in order of preference or anything, all of these guys have different elements that give them their upside and it's really hard to project these things this early, but let's get to some candidates. I'm focusing mainly only on SV/points leagues here, SV+HLD leagues probably already have all of these guys rostered.

Adbert Alzolay - Chicago Cubs

Writeup: Alzolay has terrific stuff and is probably my favorite guy on this list to potentially become a difference maker, but he's also got a really difficult path to do so, behind Boxberger and Fulmer in the pecking order. That being said, Alzolay has very good underlying metrics: https://www.pitcherlist.com/playeadbert-alzolay/
So far this season, he's been terrific in his role as a middle relief guy, and has been moved towards higher leverage spots recently. With volatility in the closer role, as Fulmer lost the job to Boxberger, the closing job is far from locked up. If Boxberger struggles or Alzolay continues to impress, he could easily work his way into the closer job for the Cubs. Cubs are decent this year and should have a lot of save opportunities, Alzolay could easily return very high value if he works his way into the role.
Upside Condition: He has to win the closing job from BoxbergeFulmer, a closer situation that's already in flux, but still a climb nonetheless
2023 Stats: 1.33 xERA, 2.88 xFIP, .79 WHIP, 34% K%, 5.7% BB%, 30.5% CSW%, 4.96 PLV

Aroldis Chapman - Kansas City Royals

Writeup: The velocity is all the way back. Scott Barlow has been alright, and Chapman could easily work his way into the closer role, but that's not where Chapman's value comes in on this Royals team. No, Chapman's value comes from the hypothetical where he gets traded to a contender to close for them. Chapman has been terrific this season, with the aforementioned velocity return. The stats are below, but here's his PitcherList profile, if you wanna check that out too: https://www.pitcherlist.com/playearoldis-chapman/
Upside Condition: Chapman gets traded at the deadline to a contender to close for them. Considering the state of the Royals franchise, Chapman/Barlow's contracts, and the amount of closer-needy contenders in the league, this is something I'm really banking on happening. If it does happen, Chapman could return crazy value, as he has very high strikeout upside and will likely be closing for a contender after the trade deadline.
2023 Stats: 1.95 xERA, 1.59 xFIP, .87 WHIP, 46.3% K%, 7.3% BB%, 38.6% CSW%, 5.30 PLV

Michael King - New York Yankees

Writeup: The Yankees won't suck forever and Clay Holmes has been dreadful, while King has been easily the best pitcher in the Yankees pen this season. It's only a matter of time at this point before he takes the closing job from Holmes. King has been very, very good this season: https://www.pitcherlist.com/playemichael-king/. I will note that some of the underlying expected metrics are a little higher than you'd like them to be, but PLV, my favorite metric for gauging underlying performance, really likes him.
Upside Condition: The current trend continues and King takes the Yankees closer job from Holmes, and the Yankees get back on track
2023 Stats: 3.16 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 26.2% K%, 4.6% BB%, 33.5% CSW%, 5.25 PLV

Alex Lange - Detroit Tigers

Writeup: Might already be rostered, but if he isn't, really, REALLY look into picking him up. The main reason experts are writing off Lange this year is because he's on the Tigers, but the Tigers actually aren't... that bad? They've lost almost all of their games to AL East opponents, but have fared well otherwise. Lange has a stranglehold on the closer job at this point, as he's excelled all season and generates a lot of whiffs on his breaking ball, something that will only continue to increase as he's faced a lot of right-hand heavy batting lineups so far in his opportunities. https://www.pitcherlist.com/playealex-lange/
Upside Condition: He maintains his current production and the Tigers continue to be a competitive baseball team, or he gets traded to a contender
2023 Stats: 1.88 xERA, 3.93 xFIP, .95 WHIP, 34.3% CSW%, 5.03 PLV

The Rest

I'm going to use this space to highlight some guys that should be rostered already, or some really deep shots.
Liam Hendriks (IL): Elite closer and a tier 1 option if he returns fully healthy. No competition for the closer role in Chicago, Reynaldo Lopez has been terrible, as has the rest of the pen. Only question is if he'll return fully healthy. Insane upside regardless, especially as an IL stash. If he's somehow on waivers, or acquirable, I'd pull the trigger right away. Expected back mid-May, June at the latest.
Raisel Iglesias (IL): Gonna be back real soon, probably already rostered, but if he's not, go get him. AJ Minter has not looked good at all and Iglesias will quickly retake the closer role when he returns, on one of the best teams in baseball.
Edwin Diaz (IL): This one is EXTREMELY speculative, and not really worth looking into if you don't have deep IL slots, but there is a very slim chance Diaz returns for the fantasy playoffs, and if you can get Edwin Diaz for the fantasy playoffs, you do it. Best closer in the game upside if he returns fully healthy. In a tight NL East, Mets will very, VERY likely have something to play for down the stretch. There are rumors Diaz may return this year: https://www.mlb.com/news/edwin-diaz-hopes-to-return-to-mets-this-season . If he comes back in September, and you get to start him in the playoffs/championship after stashing him all year, it would be beautiful.
Andres Muñoz (IL): Currently on IL15, should be returning soon, weirdly valuable in saves leagues despite not being the Mariners primary closer due to just how damn good he is as a reliever. Sewald has been good this season, but if he ever struggles, Muñoz will easily step in and be a top closing option.
Pete Fairbanks (DTD): I still believe. Fairbanks has otherwordly stuff, specifically his fastball: https://www.pitcherlist.com/unfairbanks-a-look-into-pete-fairbanks-and-his-historic-fastball/. He's currently the closer for one of the best teams in baseball. All the signs seem there, so what's the issue? The Rays either lose or win by too much to get closing opportunities. Anyone who's owned Fairbanks this year knows it. Additionally, it's the Rays, and no one's role is solidified or guaranteed really ever. Jason Adam could easily take the job, especially if Fairbanks keeps struggling with Reynaud's Syndrome. All that being said, Fairbanks could easily break out and return top tier upside if everything pans out, the trend just isn't pointing that way right now, but sometimes you just have to believe.
Daniel Bard: Yet to completely reclaim the closer role from Pierce Johnson, and the Rockpile looks rough this year, but Bard was terrific last year. The fact that he was out for anxiety rather than a physical ailment bodes well for his recovery, as there's no physical limit on him returning to the form he found last year. What's more is that the Rockies are far out of contention, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them move Bard, an established veteran closer, at the deadline to a contender. Worth monitoring for sure.
Shintaro Fujinami: What on earth am I thinking putting Fujinami, a starting pitcher for the A's, on a list of potential closer breakouts? Hear me out. Fujinami has unbelievable stuff and has actually been decently successful his first time through batting orders this season. After that, it gets unbelievably rough. I'm not even going to bother putting his stats here, because we're hoping he gets moved out of the starting role and placed into a closing role. Yes, it's the A's. This is a real deep shot. But, seeing as Fujinami is on a small-term contract, the A's are in full rebuild mode, and it's obvious that Fujinami won't succeed as a starter in the MLB at this point, there's a very decent chance he gets moved into a closer role, or traded and then moved into a closer role. The Athletics closer situation is currently a dumpster fire, if Fujinami gets moved to the bullpen he should quickly take over the closing role. If that happens, the A's will likely look to trade him at the deadline. This is only for the deepest of leagues, and even in those, I don't recommend adding him right now. Definitely someone to watch, though.

What's up everyone!
I'm Ben Palmer with Pitcher List and it's AMA time! I'm filling in for Scott Chu who's usually here but is right now with his family cause he (or really, his wife) just had twins! Which is amazing!
Anyways, let's talk some fantasy baseball (or whatever you wanna talk about really, anyone listen to any good albums lately?) - post your questions and I promise either I or someone else on the Pitcher List staff who might pop in, will do our best to answer them!
I'll be here as long as I can, but I also always check back in here later in the day, so if I didn't get to your question right away, I'll try to do it later!
Anyways, you all know how this works, enough of me blabbing.
Oh yeah, here are some links that might be useful:

• THE LIST
• HITTER LIST
• THE HOLD UP
• CLOSING TIME
• SV+H RANKS
• SP ROUNDUP
• BATTER'S BOX
• SP STREAMERS
• GOING DEEP

We're back! I hope everyone is enjoying the return of baseball and all of the randomness and excitement that comes with it!
We have been cranking out all kinds of great content on the site, and we hope you're checking it out; HOWEVER, this is the space where you get to pitch your specific questions to get answered by me and/or other folks on staff!
As always, here are a few notes before we get started:

1. Use the Pitcher List player pages, ESPECIALLY for pitchers. We have ALL of the Statcast data and the game logs on our pages are the best comprehensive pitching research tool I've seen.
2. Also, I come back in the evenings and the next day to answer questions, so don't give up hope! If I do end up missing your question, don't be shy about reaching out to us directly on the platform of your choosing.
3. Don't confuse "stabilization" with "permanent change". Rolling charts are a HUGE tool right now to see if the current BB% or K% is within the normal range for a specific player.
4. That said, just because the sample is small doesn't mean you should IGNORE it, it just means that it's highly subject to variance. Watching players is one way to help cut through the fog of small sample size randomness.
5. Listen to the First Pitch Podcast! It's an amazing recap and primer in a very digestible package. I'm no longer part of that podcast (I've got baby twins due within the next 12 days), but we've got folks who are ever better now.
6. Keep watching those lineup cards. The difference between the top and bottom of the lineup isn't just the extra trips to the plate.
7. Oneil Cruz's injury makes me SO sad. If anyone in dynasty is trying to move him, I'm all over it. The plate discipline was excellent.
8. Vaughn Grissom should be added in 12-team and deeper formats unless you're already overcrowded at MI.
9. Brian Anderson is slumping hard because in the end he's just a slightly above-average hitter. You don't need to wait this out in shallower leagues.
10. Adam Duvall should be kept if you can, but if you only have 1-3 IL spots, you may end up dropping him if you've already filled those slots with better players.
11. I'm not dropping any preseason top-100 hitters or top-50 pitchers right now in 12-teamers unless they're very hurt.

LINKS

• HITTER LIST
• THE LIST
• CLOSING TIME
• SV+H RANKS
• THE STASH LISTS
• SP STREAMERS
• CATCHERS TO STREAM
• SP ROUNDUP
• BATTERS BOX
• RELIEVER RANKS (DAILY W/ BULLPEN BREAKDOWN)
• GOING DEEP

We're back! I hope everyone is enjoying the return of baseball and all of the randomness and excitement that comes with it!
We have been cranking out all kinds of great content on the site, and we hope you're checking it out; HOWEVER, this is the space where you get to pitch your specific questions to get answered by me and/or other folks on staff!
As always, here are a few notes before we get started:

1. Use the Pitcher List player pages, ESPECIALLY for pitchers. We have ALL of the Statcast data and the game logs on our pages are the best comprehensive pitching research tool I've seen.
2. Also, I come back in the evenings and the next day to answer questions, so don't give up hope! If I do end up missing your question, don't be shy about reaching out to us directly on the platform of your choosing.
3. We don't have a ton of PLV data yet, and that's ok because the samples for that stuff are still extremely volatile and may be misleading.
4. That said, just because the sample is small doesn't mean you should IGNORE it, it just means that it's highly subject to variance. Watching players is one way to help cut through the fog of small sample size randomness. For example, watching Oneil Cruz lay off several low and away sliders the other day was extremely encouraging as those used to give him fits. It supports the notion that his strikeout rate is improving...though it's hard to say how much.
5. Listen to the First Pitch Podcast! It's an amazing recap and primer in a very digestible package. I'm no longer part of that podcast (I've got baby twins due within the next 12 days), but we've got folks who are ever better now.
6. Keep watching those lineup cards. The difference between the top and bottom of the lineup isn't just the extra trips to the plate.
7. Here are some of the under-40% rostered hitters I've scooped up in 12-teamers: Brian Anderson, Garrett Mitchell, Travis d'Arnaud, Brice Turang.
8. Here are some of the guys I've dropped/would drop for the above who you might have drafted in a 12-teamer: Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, Esteury Ruiz, Vaughn Grissom, Oscar Gonzalez, Gabriel Moreno, Danny Jansen.

LINKS

• HITTER LIST
• THE LIST
• CLOSING TIME
• SV+H RANKS
• THE STASH LISTS
• SP STREAMERS
• CATCHERS TO STREAM
• SP ROUNDUP
• BATTERS BOX
• RELIEVER RANKS (DAILY W/ BULLPEN BREAKDOWN)
• GOING DEEP

www.pitcherlist.com is one of the best fantasy focused websites for pitching analysis, but also relatively useful for "real" baseball analysis.
I thought it would be interesting to see how the Twins compare 2022 vs 2023.
2022:

Name	Rank	Notes (If present)
Sonny Gray	49
Joe Ryan	61
Bailey Ober	75	Ober’s four-seamer reminds me me of peak Jake Odorizzi
Chris Paddack	Considered -> Not Ranked	Not confident he makes rotation + Worth it?
Dylan Bundy	Considered -> Not Ranked	Sub 90mph and few sliders in Spring
Chris Archer	Not Mentioned

2023:

Name	Rank	Notes
Joe Ryan	38
Pablo Lopez	40
Sonny Gray	59
Kenta Maeda	54	I’m down to see how Kenta Maeda looks now that’s he’s fully returned from TJS. Remember, he’s routinely been a 25%+ strikeout arm and the Twins should win him some games.
Tyler Mahle	63	Monitor Tyler Mahle‘s velocity this spring – if he’s able to sit 94+ mph by the end, he’ll jump into the end of Tier 8. Right now, he’s at 93 mph, so he’s down in Tier 10.
Bailey Ober	Not Mentioned

Pretty nice to see the worst ranked pitcher on the 2023 list is Mahle with a note he has a chance of jumping ~10 slots based on his early velo readings. Obviously this is all something we have to wait to see how it plays out, but at least on paper the Twins are looking at a significantly stronger rotation. I included Ober in the 2023 because I think he still has a chance to push himself into the rotation, but obviously not going ot be on a fantasy focused list without a confirmed role.
Sources:
https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-fantasy-baseball-2023-updated-3-13/
https://www.pitcherlist.com/series-post/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2022-fantasy-baseball-3-21-update/

https://www.pitcherlist.com/late-round-targets/
A nice variety of players usually drafted after round 20.

Looking for all the available software that different platforms offer to help during a fantasy baseball draft. Mind you, I'm not asking for the best, just for a crowd generated list of all such available software so I can sample them myself and choose the best one for me.
Thank you for your help!
EDIT:

• Rotowire
• Rotochamp
• app.draftkick
• Fantasy Pros
• Rotolab
• Fantistics
• Lineupexperts
• Mr. Cheatsheet
• PitcherList
• Razzball

This page shows the players most likely to benefit from the shift this year. It's a fairly simple analysis that shows what they did in 2022. It doesn't attempt to predict if players like Seager and Muncy will change their swing patterns to pull the ball more. Hint: they will.
The other interesting thing here is Cody Bellinger on this list (alongside Schwarber). His 9 outs that would have been hits on line drives adds .018 to his BA automatically. Add the grounders that would have snuck through. Add the fact that he won't be afraid to pull the ball because of the shift and I think you have something even without any "improvement".
His "barrel" percentage was in the 54th percentile, which means he was making good contact better that 54% of hitters, but his hard hit percentage was only 38th percentile, meaning that these barrels were not resulting in the power you'd expect. You might write this off as a lack of strength due to the injury, but his average exit velocity was 57th percentile, meaning when he did make good contact, it was really good contact.
Sooo... either he was sometimes weak/sore and other times his old MVP self --or-- he was being shifted so often that he was afraid to really pull the ball and do what he was capable of. Either way, I think we can expect big things from Bellinger this year.

Hey all!
I wanted to share our (Pitcher List's) new model with you. We developed a pitch outcome classifier model to predict outcome likelihoods for every pitch and then use linear weights to convert those outcomes to a run value. Those run values are then scaled 0-10, with 5 being the league average run value per pitch, 10 being a great/valuable pitch, and 0 being a bad/costly pitch.
We'll have a full-length article walking through PLV, but, for now, I wanted to share some of the tools we've made with it!
- We made a web app that evaluates a given pitcher's arsenal, with generators for charts that compare that pitcher to the league and charts that show the distribution of that pitcher's individual pitch values.
- We also made a web app for hitters that quantifies some of their attributes (Swing Aggression, Strikezone Judgement, Swing Decisions, Contact Ability, and Power), and includes a rolling chart generator for each attribute, with filters for various situations.
- Finally, there are Google Sheets for Pitchers and Hitters with these values that you're free to make copies of.
If you have any questions/comments/ideas, feel free to dm me here or on Twitter (also @Blandalytics). Thanks!
Edit: here's our primer article!

This one is mostly for the commissioners out there. Some advice and tips on boosting player engagement.
https://www.pitcherlist.com/fantasy-baseball-rules-for-league-engagement/

Does anyone know where can I find datas on pitcher’s repertoire that are exportable on Excel?
I am talking about informations such as:
% of usage, Velocity, Zone%, SwStr%, for any given pitch.
I know that I can find all those informations on a pitcher’s profile on pitcherlist.com, but unfortunately it looks like I can’t export those info on Excel.
Anybody has a clue?

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