2023 football recruiting rankings
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News and discussions about the University of Alabama Crimson Tide athletics.
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2023.06.03 01:10 AutoModerator Monthly Pathfinder Society Update
To help reduce the misconception of what sub this is I will work on a monthly Society update that will be stuck to the top of the posts. I'll be gleaming this from the blog posts, VO Discord, updates to the sub and suggestions from the sub. Here is the link to the Paizo Monthly Update blog post.
Luckily it’s smooth sailing now, which is a lie, because convention season is in full swing! As I write this blog we’re doing our final preparations for PaizoCon Online. I can’t wait for this show, and I’m so excited for our upcoming shows like UK Games Expo and Gen Con. Not to mention, this fall I’ll be heading to a few local conventions! More on that soon, hopefully. For now, I’ve got a supersized OP update to deliver, so let’s get started.
*part of a subscription
Rest assured that as soon as we can, the OP team will be diving into the new rule changes to figure out how to make the updates as seamless as possible for the community. For now, I ask for your patience on this topic. There will be many questions to answer in the weeks ahead, but we’ve got a steady hand on the metaphorical tiller.
The Achievement Point cost for a boon to play a character of the following species has been reduced to 80 Achievement Points: astriapi, cephalume, contemplative, trox, uplifted bear, urog. Meanwhile, the following species are now playable with the purchase of a boon from the online Boon Store: entu colony, huitz’plina, grippli, kitsune, kobold, psacynoid, samsaran, scyphozoan, trinir, and tryziarka.
Finally, a few more boons have been added to the Boon Store! Starfinders who enjoy having a permanent emblem of their position can now purchase the Marked Starfinder boon for 2 AcP after playing at least one session to gain a Society Subdermal Graft. Additionally, characters can now undergo a Training Montage (or Extended Training Montage) to retrain their character’s abilities! These provide more robust retraining options than the previously available mnemonic editor. Full text of these boons, as always, can be found on the Starfinder Society FAQ page.
The Guide to Organized Play: Starfinder Society has been updated with all these changes, as well as a brand-new overhaul and visual upgrade! Incredible thanks to Jared Thaler and Peter Nalepa, both of whom have worked very hard to make the guide more user-friendly and accessible. They’ve created a feedback thread on the forums for comments or questions.
Look for some upcoming blogs where we’ll be revealing the candidates, their platforms, and a bit more about them. Campaign season begins when the ballot opens at Gen Con (August 1–4), and the voting period will close in mid-October. If you want to cast your vote, don’t miss your chance to play the scenario in that two-month period!
For Pathfinder Society, this month’s new release is the brand-new standalone adventure, The Enmity Cycle. The sanctioning documents for this adventure are just waiting to be exported; once they are, we’ll be sure to add them to the product page.
On the Starfinder side, the new hardcover rulebook Starfinder Ports of Call has been released and sanctioned for play! Visit the Character Options page for all the details. While you’re there, why not check out the new options from the Drift Hackers Adventure Path, which are also now sanctioned! Chronicle sheets for players and GMs will also be available on the product page for the AP as soon as they’re exported.
Coming up next, we’ll be getting sanctioning documents out for the Free RPG Day adventures (foreshadowing for the next section)! After that, for Pathfinder Society we’ve got the Stolen Fate Adventure Path and Pathfinder Lost Omens Highhelm on the docket, and Starfinder Society will be pretty quiet until the fall!
If your store is participating in this event, sanctioning documents and chronicle sheets will be available prior to the event! You’ll be able to get credit for your Organized Play characters after participating in these adventures. Free RPG Day is a great way to kickstart a new RPG group at a store, so we encourage you all to head to a participating retailerfor the event!
Congratulations to: Jofiane “Fi,” who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #887 Milan Badzic, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #888 and Harmeshver “Resh” Singh, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #889
This month, we had one GM earn their 5th Nova for Starfinder Society and one earn their 5th Glyph for Pathfinder Society (second edition).
5th Nova (SFS): Terry T 5th Glyph (PFS2): Tim Munsie (TMun)
Congratulations to our outstanding GMs and volunteers!
We've also announced PaizoCon South Pacific, running from June 30–July 2 in Sydney, Australia! While I won’t be attending (this year...), the Paizo community will be turning out for a great time.
And of course, there are tons of local conventions in your area! Check out our conventions calendar to see what events are happening near you and go roll some dice.
That’s quite enough from me—thanks for sticking with the supersized update. There’s a reason we try to do these monthly! Until next time, Explore! Report! Cooperate! And have a spot of tea!
Alex Speidel Organized Play Coordinator
NordCon 2023, UK Games EXPO, ConCarolinas 2023, Phoenix Fan Fusion 2023, Kākāpō Con, Origins 2023, Tri-Con 2023
submitted by AutoModerator to Pathfinder [link] [comments]
OPC Musings
Welcome back to the OP Monthly Update! I know we missed last month, that’s entirely my fault. I was on my honeymoon, and then we announced a little thing called the Pathfinder Core Remaster, and by the time I came up for air, it was already mid-May!Luckily it’s smooth sailing now, which is a lie, because convention season is in full swing! As I write this blog we’re doing our final preparations for PaizoCon Online. I can’t wait for this show, and I’m so excited for our upcoming shows like UK Games Expo and Gen Con. Not to mention, this fall I’ll be heading to a few local conventions! More on that soon, hopefully. For now, I’ve got a supersized OP update to deliver, so let’s get started.
Digital Adventure Releases
These adventures will be available on June 28, 2023.Pathfinder Society
Pathfinder Society Scenario #4-15: In Glorious BattleStarfinder Society
Starfinder Society Scenario #6-03: Project Dawn Starfinder Society Scenario #6-04: Secrets Long Submerged*part of a subscription
Pathfinder Core Remaster
Last month, we announced the Pathfinder Core Remaster: an overhaul and update of our Pathfinder Second Edition ruleset, a necessary but difficult maneuver given the events of recent months. I am sure that for many of you, the first question was “how will this affect Pathfinder Society?” The short answer is: we don’t know yet! The longer answer is that these books literally don’t exist fully yet; they won’t go to the printer for another month or so. Until they do, we can’t begin to answer these questions.Rest assured that as soon as we can, the OP team will be diving into the new rule changes to figure out how to make the updates as seamless as possible for the community. For now, I ask for your patience on this topic. There will be many questions to answer in the weeks ahead, but we’ve got a steady hand on the metaphorical tiller.
FAQ and Boon Updates
In the quiet time before convention prep, the Pathfinder Society developers and I had some time to sit down and hammer out some updates to boons available in the boon store, as well as to handle some FAQs for the program. The full updates are available on the FAQ page, but here’s a summary of the changes:- The Second Chance boon has been updated to indicate that purchasing and using this boon also covers the cost of recovering your body and any lost possessions if necessary. If a character is undead (such as a skeleton), they can use this boon to benefit from a similar ritual to restore themselves to their previously undead state.
- Similarly, an FAQ clarifies that in the event that your character ends a scenario alive but otherwise inaccessible (such as being imprisoned or transported to another plane), the Second Chance boon can be purchased and used to return your character to safety.
- Another FAQ clarifies which version of an item or character option to use in the event the option is reprinted in another book. In short, a hardcover printing of an option is considered the standard option unless otherwise stated. This applies to both Pathfinder and Starfinder Society.
- The Secondary Initiation boon has also been clarified to cover how it handles entry requirements for organizations (it handwaves them as occurring offscreen) and which ranks PCs can choose to be within organizations (anything reasonable is fair game, but no, your PCs are not fourth-mark Firebrands).
- Finally, we have issued one minor clarification to the Magic Arrow feat from the Pathfinder Advanced Player’s Guide, which you can find on the Character Options page as normal.
Starfinder Society Year 6 Updates
Program Changes
SFS Year 6 launched at PaizoCon Online! Hopefully, anyway; I’m writing this before the show, so if a dinosaur attacks, someone let future me know. The following Starfinder species are now considered “always available”: gnoll, hanakan, kiirinta, quorlu, raxilite, shimreen. Players are free to build characters of these species as often as they like; as always, characters with an Admittance Boon for these species gain an additional +2 to one ability score immediately.The Achievement Point cost for a boon to play a character of the following species has been reduced to 80 Achievement Points: astriapi, cephalume, contemplative, trox, uplifted bear, urog. Meanwhile, the following species are now playable with the purchase of a boon from the online Boon Store: entu colony, huitz’plina, grippli, kitsune, kobold, psacynoid, samsaran, scyphozoan, trinir, and tryziarka.
Finally, a few more boons have been added to the Boon Store! Starfinders who enjoy having a permanent emblem of their position can now purchase the Marked Starfinder boon for 2 AcP after playing at least one session to gain a Society Subdermal Graft. Additionally, characters can now undergo a Training Montage (or Extended Training Montage) to retrain their character’s abilities! These provide more robust retraining options than the previously available mnemonic editor. Full text of these boons, as always, can be found on the Starfinder Society FAQ page.
The Guide to Organized Play: Starfinder Society has been updated with all these changes, as well as a brand-new overhaul and visual upgrade! Incredible thanks to Jared Thaler and Peter Nalepa, both of whom have worked very hard to make the guide more user-friendly and accessible. They’ve created a feedback thread on the forums for comments or questions.
First Seeker Election
Last month we formally announced Starfinder Society #6-06: Tomorrow’s Seekers! This scenario will allow you to meet the four PCs who were selected to vie for the title of First Seeker. You may note my name on the cover as the author; I’m so excited for this adventure and for you all to meet these wonderful colorful characters!Look for some upcoming blogs where we’ll be revealing the candidates, their platforms, and a bit more about them. Campaign season begins when the ballot opens at Gen Con (August 1–4), and the voting period will close in mid-October. If you want to cast your vote, don’t miss your chance to play the scenario in that two-month period!
Sanctioning
One of the reasons we could get away with missing April’s blog was that it was a pretty quiet month on the release front! Luckily, we’ve got some new toys for you this month!For Pathfinder Society, this month’s new release is the brand-new standalone adventure, The Enmity Cycle. The sanctioning documents for this adventure are just waiting to be exported; once they are, we’ll be sure to add them to the product page.
On the Starfinder side, the new hardcover rulebook Starfinder Ports of Call has been released and sanctioned for play! Visit the Character Options page for all the details. While you’re there, why not check out the new options from the Drift Hackers Adventure Path, which are also now sanctioned! Chronicle sheets for players and GMs will also be available on the product page for the AP as soon as they’re exported.
Coming up next, we’ll be getting sanctioning documents out for the Free RPG Day adventures (foreshadowing for the next section)! After that, for Pathfinder Society we’ve got the Stolen Fate Adventure Path and Pathfinder Lost Omens Highhelm on the docket, and Starfinder Society will be pretty quiet until the fall!
Free RPG Day
June 24 is Free RPG Day here in the United States! This initiative provides retailers with exclusive access to free RPG products from a number of companies, including Paizo. We have two adventures in this year’s kit: A Few Flowers Morefor Pathfinder and Operation: Seaside Park for StarfinderIf your store is participating in this event, sanctioning documents and chronicle sheets will be available prior to the event! You’ll be able to get credit for your Organized Play characters after participating in these adventures. Free RPG Day is a great way to kickstart a new RPG group at a store, so we encourage you all to head to a participating retailerfor the event!
GM Recognition
At PaizoCon Online last weekend, I awarded three individuals with brand new Campaign Coins and Organized Play IDs. We award these coins to members of the community who have gone above and beyond to provide an exceptional program to the community at large. Campaign Coins are awarded based on nominations; if you believe someone in your community is deserving of this award (whether or not they are a Venture Officer), send an email to organizedplay[at]paizo[dot]com with their name and reasons.Congratulations to: Jofiane “Fi,” who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #887 Milan Badzic, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #888 and Harmeshver “Resh” Singh, who now holds a Campaign Coin and Organized Play ID #889
GM Ranks
Whether stars, novas, or glyphs, achieving a 5 ranking in any program involves a substantial amount of time. To achieve the 5th milestone, a GM must run 150 games, of which at least 50 must be unique scenarios and 10 special scenarios, as well as run between one and three games for Venture-Captains (program dependent). A conservative estimate of the time needed to reach the 5th milestone is 650 hours!This month, we had one GM earn their 5th Nova for Starfinder Society and one earn their 5th Glyph for Pathfinder Society (second edition).
5th Nova (SFS): Terry T 5th Glyph (PFS2): Tim Munsie (TMun)
Congratulations to our outstanding GMs and volunteers!
Conventions
It’s convention season! As this blog is posted, I’ll be getting ready for my first games at UK Games Expo in Birmingham. It’s my first official trip abroad and I can’t wait to meet our European community! If you’re in the area, come say hi!We've also announced PaizoCon South Pacific, running from June 30–July 2 in Sydney, Australia! While I won’t be attending (this year...), the Paizo community will be turning out for a great time.
And of course, there are tons of local conventions in your area! Check out our conventions calendar to see what events are happening near you and go roll some dice.
That’s quite enough from me—thanks for sticking with the supersized update. There’s a reason we try to do these monthly! Until next time, Explore! Report! Cooperate! And have a spot of tea!
Alex Speidel Organized Play Coordinator
Upcoming Conventions
Paizo Conventions calendarNordCon 2023, UK Games EXPO, ConCarolinas 2023, Phoenix Fan Fusion 2023, Kākāpō Con, Origins 2023, Tri-Con 2023
Sub Updates
Sorry for the issues getting this out correctly the past few times.2023.06.03 01:04 subredditsummarybot Your weekly /r/Emo roundup for the week of May 26 - June 01
Friday, May 26 - Thursday, June 01
submitted by subredditsummarybot to Emo [link] [comments]
Top Media
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 236 | 30 comments | [LOCAL SHOW/TOURING/EVENTS] Carly Cosgrove killed it | |
| 194 | 11 comments | [(Emo Adjacent)] PUP at Adjacent Fest | |
| 35 | 8 comments | Star wars but its midwest emo intro | |
| 34 | 7 comments | [Fresh] My Norwegian Emo band Probleman released our new song "Skal vi stupe" this friday! Lmk what u think! | |
| 32 | 5 comments | [Emo History/Archives🗃] ‘I Gotta Go Explain to People What Emo Is’ The punk subgenre wasn’t supposed to go mainstream. Then MTV met Dashboard Confessional | |
| 27 | 12 comments | Favorite Opening Riff? | |
| 23 | 2 comments | Into It. Over It. - The Shaking Of Leaves | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
Top Remaining Posts
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 472 | 42 comments | Honestly ? | |
| 345 | 131 comments | [LOCAL SHOW/TOURING/EVENTS] my band, dikembe, leaves for tour in one week! come to a show if you're in the area | |
| 190 | 12 comments | [Art n Stuff🎨] Fuck yr emotional bullshit | |
| 176 | 42 comments | anyone know where was this photo taken? | |
| 156 | 20 comments | [Art n Stuff🎨] got some stickers today, not all emo but maybe you guys like it too | |
| 152 | 55 comments | [(Emo Adjacent)] I just found out that Thursday discovered and signed My Chemical Romance. Am I the only one who didn't know this because wtf? Never would have guessed that connection. | |
| 121 | 12 comments | [Emocore] I thought you guys might like this, Indian Summer shirt I made in high school |
Top 5 Most Commented
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 294 comments | Looking for an emo album that is great start to finish | |
| 45 | 168 comments | What’s the definitive emo song ? | |
| 18 | 162 comments | [Discussion] Favorite “fake” emo bands? | |
| 24 | 99 comments | Looking for some of the saddest songs. | |
| 27 | 93 comments | Any good songs about su*cidal thoughts? |
2023.06.03 01:03 subredditsummarybot Your weekly /r/melodicdeathmetal roundup for the week of May 26 - June 01
Friday, May 26 - Thursday, June 01
submitted by subredditsummarybot to melodicdeathmetal [link] [comments]
Top Media
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 10 comments | [Song] Amon Amarth - Victorious March | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
| 63 | 11 comments | [Song] Kalmah - Red and Black (From their new album 'Kalmah') | [Sp] [AM] [Dzr] [SC] |
| 38 | 8 comments | [Song] Arch Enemy - Revolution Begins | [Sp] [AM] [Dzr] [SC] |
| 25 | 11 comments | [Song] MyGrain - Trapped In An Hourglass | [Sp] [AM] [Dzr] [SC] |
| 25 | 5 comments | [Song] Soilwork - Bleeder Despoiler (Sweden, 2019) | |
| 17 | 3 comments | [Song] Serenity In Murder - Defamiliarization | [BC] |
| 12 | 6 comments | [Song] Aetherian - ΠΥΡ ΑΕΝΑΟΝ (translated: Pyr Aenaon - Eternal/Undying Flame, Greek, 2023) | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
Top Remaining Posts
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 36 comments | [Recommendations] The New Kalmah | |
| 89 | 20 comments | [Discussion] Tarot by Aether Realm is sick | |
| 40 | 130 comments | [Recommendations] Melodeath that sounds like metalcore | |
| 31 | 6 comments | [Results] 📊 Results of the Persefone album ranking! | |
| 20 | 26 comments | [Discussion] Anno 1696 (Insomnium) vs. Air Not Meant For Us (Fires In the Distance) | |
| 17 | 100 comments | [Discussion] What is your 1 absolute favorite song? | |
| 16 | 4 comments | [Discussion] Common scales in Finnish metal | |
| 13 | 7 comments | [Discussion] thinking of a song, cannot for the life of me remember the name of it! please help! | |
| 11 | 6 comments | [Recommendations] Obtenebris - Skyfall | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
| 7 | 2 comments | [Song] Archaeologist - Prophecy (instrumental metal) | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
2023.06.03 00:36 ProstAcer We had our championship decider trivia night on Thursday. Here's some of our questions!
We have 62 questions in various forms any given night. Since our questions are in Hungarian (for Hungarians) and some of them are music or other form that is hard to pass through here, I simply just listed a few that you could use. Enjoy!
submitted by ProstAcer to trivia [link] [comments]
- Which figure from the history of the Formula-1 didn't kneel in front of the Queen and yet was knighted?
- Which historic event led to the non-native population of the 31st US state exploding from 800 to 300 000 over just 7 years?
- Which Russian city with the population of 685 000 (the 19th largest in Russia) is named after a former general secretary of the Italian Communist Party? Its ice hockey team will return to the KHL from 2023.
- What special element/design made Infinity clothes popular?
- What's the name of the diet that is based on minimal carbohydrate consumption along with high protein and fat consumption?
- Who was the most streamed performer on Spotify in 2022? A. Bad Bunny B. BTS C. Drake D. Taylor Swift
- Among the 52-card deck's 4 kings, which one is usually not depicted with a sword but an axe (or in other versions, without any weaponry)?
- Which award-winning Beatles album has 71 famous people on its cover? A. Help! B. Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band C. With the Beatles D. Yellow Submarine
- According to the football/soccer rulebook, how long can a goalkeeper hold the ball? A. 6 B. 9 C. 12 D. 15 seconds
- What's the first name?
- Hanna and/or Barbera
- Miller (actor, Prison Break)
- Kepler (astronomer)
- Khachaturian (composer)
- What is a 'lanovka'?
2023.06.03 00:29 UVUboi2 Big 12 Football 2023 Predictions
submitted by UVUboi2 to CFB [link] [comments]2023.06.03 00:28 Ikaricyber How do you get this sleeve. If it’s not out anyone know when it’ll come out?
 | submitted by Ikaricyber to u/Ikaricyber [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 00:21 Young_Stunna11 Escape rate looking good
 | submitted by Young_Stunna11 to DeadByDaylightMobile [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 00:16 Annual_Sign_2261 Can’t Pay Back Relocation Bonus
Hi! I have been in a bit of a perplexing situation with Amazon recently, and I was wondering if anyone had any related experiences.
Last fall (over half a year ago), I accepted a job offer as an Area Manager to begin working in July. Unfortunately, towards spring, I decided to move on with a different job opportunity, which is when I reached out to my recruiter to let them know I would like to retract my application and reverse the relocation bonus before it got deposited to my bank account.
It is worth noting that it took me 3 follow-up emails to reach ANYBODY to respond to me until I proactively went on LinkedIn and found a random recruiter to help me, as I was only given a generic ops university email address where nobody was responding.
Finally, a recruiter contacts me back, says it’s okay, we’re sorry it didn’t work out and so on and so forth. Says “somebody from our relocation team will be in touch with you next week”. A week goes by — nothing. So I send a follow-up email practically repeating the same thing. Once again, the recruiter says, “somebody from our relocation team will contact you next week” — except this time, they sent me a repeat offer letter (same terms and everything) to get an automatic response from me that I do, in fact, decline the job offer. So I declined it, this time officially, and got an confirmation email.
Another week goes by. At that point, the relocation benefits had already been deposited to my bank account. So I send another follow-up email, this time emphasizing the point that Amazon failed to reverse my relocation bonus, and now I need to somehow send it back, preferably in a way that does not reflect on my 2023 taxes as “taxable income”. Again, they respond, “somebody will get back to you next week…” You get the gist.
It’s been almost a month since the relocation bonus was deposited to my bank account, and the relocation/recruitment teams have taken zero action on behalf of Amazon to retract/collect this payment of $7,000 that’s been sitting in my account.
Now, I am a saver by nature, so I don’t have any intention of spending this money any time soon. But how long can it possibly take them to “hunt me down” and get their money back, which I am CONTRACTUALLY BOUND to return? Not to mention, there is nothing to hunt down — in fact, I have already officially declined the job offer (which the system confirmed and registered as a declined offer), and been sending them multiple emails begging to collect this bonus back from me.
Has anybody ever been in this situation? How long does it usually take them to enforce the return of relocation benefits sent by mistake? Has anyone ever NOT paid back their relocation bonus and “got away with it”?
I worry that if enough time goes by, not only will this money reflect on my taxes next year, but what if 10 years go by, I move on thinking that they must have forgotten, when Amazon’s automated system suddenly spits out that Ms. So-and-so owes them $7,000 from back in 2023? Will they then sue me, even though I have been acting in good faith all this time? Please help me. I am catastrophizing.
submitted by Annual_Sign_2261 to AmazonFC [link] [comments]
Last fall (over half a year ago), I accepted a job offer as an Area Manager to begin working in July. Unfortunately, towards spring, I decided to move on with a different job opportunity, which is when I reached out to my recruiter to let them know I would like to retract my application and reverse the relocation bonus before it got deposited to my bank account.
It is worth noting that it took me 3 follow-up emails to reach ANYBODY to respond to me until I proactively went on LinkedIn and found a random recruiter to help me, as I was only given a generic ops university email address where nobody was responding.
Finally, a recruiter contacts me back, says it’s okay, we’re sorry it didn’t work out and so on and so forth. Says “somebody from our relocation team will be in touch with you next week”. A week goes by — nothing. So I send a follow-up email practically repeating the same thing. Once again, the recruiter says, “somebody from our relocation team will contact you next week” — except this time, they sent me a repeat offer letter (same terms and everything) to get an automatic response from me that I do, in fact, decline the job offer. So I declined it, this time officially, and got an confirmation email.
Another week goes by. At that point, the relocation benefits had already been deposited to my bank account. So I send another follow-up email, this time emphasizing the point that Amazon failed to reverse my relocation bonus, and now I need to somehow send it back, preferably in a way that does not reflect on my 2023 taxes as “taxable income”. Again, they respond, “somebody will get back to you next week…” You get the gist.
It’s been almost a month since the relocation bonus was deposited to my bank account, and the relocation/recruitment teams have taken zero action on behalf of Amazon to retract/collect this payment of $7,000 that’s been sitting in my account.
Now, I am a saver by nature, so I don’t have any intention of spending this money any time soon. But how long can it possibly take them to “hunt me down” and get their money back, which I am CONTRACTUALLY BOUND to return? Not to mention, there is nothing to hunt down — in fact, I have already officially declined the job offer (which the system confirmed and registered as a declined offer), and been sending them multiple emails begging to collect this bonus back from me.
Has anybody ever been in this situation? How long does it usually take them to enforce the return of relocation benefits sent by mistake? Has anyone ever NOT paid back their relocation bonus and “got away with it”?
I worry that if enough time goes by, not only will this money reflect on my taxes next year, but what if 10 years go by, I move on thinking that they must have forgotten, when Amazon’s automated system suddenly spits out that Ms. So-and-so owes them $7,000 from back in 2023? Will they then sue me, even though I have been acting in good faith all this time? Please help me. I am catastrophizing.
2023.06.03 00:10 KCRoyalsBot Game Thread: Rockies @ Royals - Fri, Jun 02 @ 07:10 PM CDT
Rockies @ Royals - Fri, Jun 02
Game Status: Pre-Game - First Pitch is scheduled for 07:10 PM CDT
Links & Info
- Current conditions at Kauffman Stadium: 89°F - Partly Cloudy - Wind 8 mph, R To L
- TV: Rockies: ATT SportsNet-RM, Royals: Bally Sports Kansas City
- Radio: Rockies: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM , Royals: KCSP 610
- MLB Gameday
- Statcast Game Preview
| ALC Rank | Team | W | L | GB (E#) | WC Rank | WC GB (E#) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 27 | - (-) | - | - (-) |
| 2 | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 28 | 2.5 (105) | 8 | 6.0 (102) |
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | 25 | 31 | 4.5 (102) | 9 | 8.0 (99) |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 35 | 7.5 (98) | 10 | 11.0 (95) |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 17 | 39 | 12.5 (94) | 11 | 16.0 (91) |
| Probable Pitcher (Season Stats) | Report | |
|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Chase Anderson (0-0, 1.31 ERA, 20.2 IP) | No report posted. |
| Royals | Jordan Lyles (0-9, 7.30 ERA, 61.2 IP) | No report posted. |
| Rockies Lineup vs. Lyles | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Blackmon - DH | .200 | .517 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 Profar, J - LF | .571 | 1.285 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 McMahon - 3B | .125 | .773 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 Díaz, E - C | .167 | .619 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 Grichuk - RF | .800 | 2.200 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 Castro, H - 2B | .571 | 1.142 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 Jones, N - 1B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 Doyle, B - CF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 Tovar - SS | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 Anderson - P | .000 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Royals Lineup vs. Anderson | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pratto - 1B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2 Witt Jr. - SS | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 Pasquantino - DH | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 Perez, S - C | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 Melendez - RF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 Olivares - LF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 Massey - 2B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 Lopez, N - 3B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 Waters - CF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 Lyles - P | .000 | .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Division Scoreboard
CLE @ MIN 07:10 PM CDTDET @ CWS 07:10 PM CDT
Last Updated: 06/02/2023 05:45:48 PM CDT
2023.06.03 00:10 TigersBot Game Thread: Tigers @ White Sox - Fri, Jun 02 @ 08:10 PM EDT
Tigers @ White Sox - Fri, Jun 02
Game Status: Pre-Game - First Pitch is scheduled for 08:10 PM EDT
Links & Info
- Current conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field: 77°F - Clear - Wind 8 mph, L To R
- TV: Tigers: Bally Sports Detroit, White Sox: NBCSCH
- Radio: Tigers: 97.1 The Ticket, White Sox: TUDN WRTO 1200 (es), WMVP 1000 AM
- MLB Gameday
- Statcast Game Preview
| ALC Rank | Team | W | L | GB (E#) | WC Rank | WC GB (E#) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 27 | - (-) | - | - (-) |
| 2 | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 28 | 2.5 (105) | 8 | 6.0 (102) |
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | 25 | 31 | 4.5 (102) | 9 | 8.0 (99) |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 35 | 7.5 (98) | 10 | 11.0 (95) |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 17 | 39 | 12.5 (94) | 11 | 16.0 (91) |
| Probable Pitcher (Season Stats) | Report | |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Reese Olson (0-0, -.-- ERA, 0.0 IP) | No report posted. |
| White Sox | Mike Clevinger (3-3, 4.56 ERA, 47.1 IP) | No report posted. |
| Tigers Lineup vs. Clevinger | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 McKinstry - RF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2 Baddoo - LF | .000 | .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 Báez, J - SS | .333 | .666 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 Torkelson - 1B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 Maton, N - 3B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 Haase - C | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 Cabrera, M - DH | .250 | .808 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 Ibáñez - 2B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 Marisnick - CF | .500 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Olson - P | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| White Sox Lineup vs. Olson | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Anderson, Ti - SS | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2 Benintendi - LF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 Robert Jr. - CF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 Jiménez, E - RF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 Moncada - 3B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 Vaughn - 1B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 Grandal - C | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 Sheets - DH | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 Gonzalez - 2B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 Clevinger - P | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Division Scoreboard
COL @ KC 08:10 PM EDTCLE @ MIN 08:10 PM EDT
Last Updated: 06/02/2023 06:25:24 PM EDT
2023.06.03 00:10 NewYorkMetsBot2 GAME THREAD: Blue Jays @ Mets - Fri, Jun 02 @ 07:10 PM EDT
Blue Jays @ Mets - Fri, Jun 02
Game Status: Delayed Start: Rain
Links & Info
- Current conditions at Citi Field: 80°F - Clear - Wind 11 mph, Out To LF
- TV: Blue Jays: SNET NOW App, TVA Sports (fr), SNET, Mets: SNY
- Radio: Blue Jays: Sportsnet.ca, SN590, Mets: Audacy (es), ESPN Deportes 1050 (es), WCBS 880
- MLB Gameday
- Statcast Game Preview
| NLE Rank | Team | W | L | GB (E#) | WC Rank | WC GB (E#) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 23 | - (-) | - | - (-) |
| 2 | New York Mets | 30 | 27 | 3.5 (103) | 3 | +1.0 (-) |
| 3 | Miami Marlins | 29 | 28 | 4.5 (102) | 5 | - (-) |
| 4 | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 31 | 8.0 (99) | 9 | 3.5 (102) |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 24 | 32 | 9.0 (98) | 12 | 4.5 (101) |
| Probable Pitcher (Season Stats) | Report | |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Chris Bassitt (5-4, 3.80 ERA, 66.1 IP) | No report posted. |
| Mets | Justin Verlander (2-2, 4.80 ERA, 30.0 IP) | No report posted. |
| Blue Jays Lineup vs. Verlander | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Springer - RF | .385 | 1.044 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 Bichette - SS | .000 | .143 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 Guerrero Jr. - 1B | .167 | .334 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 Belt - DH | .333 | .666 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 Chapman, M - 3B | .050 | .336 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 Merrifield - 2B | .208 | .490 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 Varsho - LF | .333 | 1.167 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 Kirk - C | .000 | .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 Kiermaier - CF | .091 | .258 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 Bassitt - P | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mets Lineup vs. Bassitt | AVG | OPS | AB | HR | RBI | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nimmo - CF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2 Lindor - SS | .333 | 1.000 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 McNeil - 2B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 Alonso - 1B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 Baty - 3B | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 Marte, S - RF | .000 | .167 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 Vientos - DH | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 Canha - LF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 Alvarez - C | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 Verlander - P | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Division Scoreboard
OAK 0 @ MIA 2 - Top 3, 1 OutPHI 0 @ WSH 0 - Top 1, 0 Outs
ATL @ AZ 09:40 PM EDT
Last Updated: 06/02/2023 07:10:47 PM EDT
2023.06.03 00:04 subredditsummarybot Your weekly /r/PsychedelicRock roundup for the week of May 26 - June 01
Friday, May 26 - Thursday, June 01
submitted by subredditsummarybot to psychedelicrock [link] [comments]
Top Media
Top Remaining Posts
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 40 comments | Just about to dive into this | |
| 60 | 5 comments | Jimi Hendrix plays backstage with radio disc jockey Rodney Bingenheimer before The Jimi Hendrix Experience performed at the Hollywood Bowl, California, August 18, 1967. | |
| 53 | 5 comments | Dude was selling records out of his garage. $5 each | |
| 45 | 6 comments | Here are a three of my artwork pieces I drew/coloured of Jerry Garcia, Jimi Hendrix and Janis Joplin. Jimi Hendrix is printed onto a T-shirt :). I hope you all like | |
| 37 | 1 comments | Psychedelic Porn Crumpets - Live in London! | |
| 36 | 9 comments | A new acquisition :D | |
| 24 | 4 comments | Pink Floyd graphic novel, a birthday present from my parents |
Top 5 Most Commented
| score | comments | title & link | mirrors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 18 comments | Looking for more droning depressive raga/psychedelic rock | |
| 15 | 16 comments | Recently listened to Sergeant Pepper’s for the First Time. Here’s my thoughts. | |
| 5 | 10 comments | Psych rock music festivals in US? | |
| 11 | 8 comments | Bobak, Jons, Malone: A “masterful” prog/psych number with a very “eerie mood”, “somewhere between Procol Harum and the early Floyd”. It comes from “an album, “generally pitched somewhere between acid folk bliss-out and the kind of heavy riffage starting to coalesce into heavy metal”. | |
| 10 | 7 comments | Song of a Sinner - Top Drawer | [Sp] [AM] [BC] [Dzr] [SC] |
2023.06.03 00:04 MotivicRunner 2023 Florence/Rome Diamond League Discussion -- Fast times abound in the distance races!
I was busy last night and didn't get a chance to create a preview post, so instead we get a post-meet discussion thread. Our third stop in the Diamond League season takes us to the Italian city of Florence. Most athletes have started to figure out where they currently stand based on their season openers, and now it is time for them to start sharpening themselves for the road to the Budapest world championships. This is as good a time as any to encourage everyone reading this to bookmark the Road to Budapest page in order to keep track of who holds the automatic qualification standards in their respective events and how qualification based on world rankings currently looks.
Going into this meet, the men's 100m was set to be a marquee matchup between Fred Kerley and Marcell Jacobs up until Jacobs had to pull out due to injury. Also on the schedule was an exciting women's 400m with Femke Bol looking to continue building on very quick season opener in order to challenge Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone later on this summer at the Budapest world championships.
In the distance events, the two star events were the men's 5000m and the women's 1500m. The men's 5000m, which was one of the deepest races ever at this meet two years ago, had a field filled with talent: 13 men with sub-13:00 outdoor PBs (Stewart McSweyn, Mo Katir, Thierry Ndikumwenayo, Berihu Aregawi, Telahun Bekele, Woody Kincaid), 7 of whom have run sub-12:50 (Moh Ahmed, Selemon Barega, Yomif Kejelcha, Nicholas Kipkorir, Jacob Krop, Joshua Cheptegei, Grant Fisher). The hype around the women's 1500m, in contrast, was all about the absolute pinnacle of the field: a world record attempt by Faith Kipyegon.
Some personal thoughts from the meet to get the discussion going (spoilers ahead!):
submitted by MotivicRunner to AdvancedRunning [link] [comments]
Going into this meet, the men's 100m was set to be a marquee matchup between Fred Kerley and Marcell Jacobs up until Jacobs had to pull out due to injury. Also on the schedule was an exciting women's 400m with Femke Bol looking to continue building on very quick season opener in order to challenge Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone later on this summer at the Budapest world championships.
In the distance events, the two star events were the men's 5000m and the women's 1500m. The men's 5000m, which was one of the deepest races ever at this meet two years ago, had a field filled with talent: 13 men with sub-13:00 outdoor PBs (Stewart McSweyn, Mo Katir, Thierry Ndikumwenayo, Berihu Aregawi, Telahun Bekele, Woody Kincaid), 7 of whom have run sub-12:50 (Moh Ahmed, Selemon Barega, Yomif Kejelcha, Nicholas Kipkorir, Jacob Krop, Joshua Cheptegei, Grant Fisher). The hype around the women's 1500m, in contrast, was all about the absolute pinnacle of the field: a world record attempt by Faith Kipyegon.
Some personal thoughts from the meet to get the discussion going (spoilers ahead!):
- That men's 5000m was very impressive and lived up to the pre-race hype! Luis Grijalva ran really well to steal 3rd place from Joshua Cheptegei and finish less than a second behind behind Mo Katir and Yomif Kejelcha. All but three finishers ran sub-13:00 in a race that kinda lagged in the middle kilometers once the pacers dropped out. You can directly watch the race here, though I'm not sure how long this upload will stay up.
- The women's 1500m was absolutely amazing!>! Faith Kipyegon was on a mission, and she absolutely dominated to break Genzebe Dibaba's 3:50:07 world record and become the first woman ever to run sub-3:50. Unless something goes horribly wrong for Kipyegon between now August, I have a very hard time imagining anyone posing a significant threat to steal gold away from her in Budapest.!< You can directly watch the race here, though I'm not sure how long this upload will stay up.
- Diamond League overall calendar
- Start lists and live results
- List of official broadcasters
- For Americans, the meet replay is available live on Peacock. It is on BBC for UK residents, the Wanda Diamond League Youtube channel for countries that aren't covered by existing broadcast rights (e.g. Japan), and you'll probably be able to find pirate uploads of the meet on Youtube soon enough..
- Previews (published before the meet): World Athletics, Diamond League, Athletics Weekly, LetsRun
2023.06.03 00:02 biggggdecamovess Kirk Herbstreit Has Decided To Give Kirby Some Fire
Seems he’s still salty about that ohio state loss😂 so funny to hear him even mention alabama in the same sentence as us
https://thespun.com/.amp/college-football/kirk-herbstreit-likes-alabama-lsu-over-georgia-heading-into-2023-season
submitted by biggggdecamovess to georgiabulldogs [link] [comments]
https://thespun.com/.amp/college-football/kirk-herbstreit-likes-alabama-lsu-over-georgia-heading-into-2023-season
2023.06.03 00:00 zhopf Nice Donruss pull
 | submitted by zhopf to baseballcards [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:52 Dcs2012Charlie Zaqqy BLUE ENCOUNT - Polaris (TV Size) [Mordred's Extreme] (Stack, 9.23*) +HDDT 97.10% FC #1 844pp 84.42 cv. UR First DT FC!
![Zaqqy BLUE ENCOUNT - Polaris (TV Size) [Mordred's Extreme] (Stack, 9.23*) +HDDT 97.10% FC #1 844pp 84.42 cv. UR First DT FC!](https://preview.redd.it/k7s7xurpeo3b1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=40532b01e2e225df151bf8f64bea0c4798423932 "Zaqqy BLUE ENCOUNT - Polaris (TV Size) [Mordred's Extreme] (Stack, 9.23*) +HDDT 97.10% FC #1 844pp 84.42 cv. UR First DT FC!") | submitted by Dcs2012Charlie to osugame [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:51 nearly_headless_nic [Press Conference - Part 2] Ten Hag on fans wanting to stop City doing the Treble: “I know what the thinking is from the [supporters]. But what we want is to restore Man United by winning trophies. On Saturday, we have the opportunity to win a trophy, and we don't want to be distracted by anything.”
https://www.manutd.com/en/news/detail/every-word-from-erik-ten-hag-press-conference-part-two-02-june-2023
“Yeah, it's going to be a long one, but how long? We don't know. We have to do more assessments.”
And just looking ahead to the game on Saturday. It's going to be difficult for you with selections. There are going to be certain players who are going to be disappointed. When will you have those conversations? Will you have those conversations with players who will have to be left out of the squad for Saturday?
“Yes, of course. There will be always be disappointed [players], about the start XI [and] for the bench. But I think it's a normal process in Manchester United and we have to deal with it. The players have to deal with it, the squad have to deal with it. And so I make the choices.”
Having worked with Pep [Guardiola] when you were at Bayern Munich 2, what insight can you give us that makes him so special?
“Oh, I don't tell. Obviously, we have seen what he's doing. He is doing a brilliant job and what he can do. He can construct teams, not only in winning teams, but also he's winning in a very attractive way. So that's why I think we all admire him.”
Apart from the first time that this club won the European Cup in 1968, the Treble season of 1999 is probably the one thing that Manchester United supporters hold as their own above anything else, which nobody else has ever done it. So I know that you try and play it down, but if you were to stop Manchester City doing that on Saturday, your supporters will sing about this weekend for the next 50 years. Do you have any real appreciation of what that really means?
“Yes, I know. I know what the thinking is from the [supporters]. But what we want is to restore Manchester United by winning trophies. So on Saturday, we have the opportunity to win a trophy, and we don't want to be distracted by anything. And yeah, if it's important for the fans, then it's important for us. So we will give everything to win the cup.”
Manchester United have won the FA Cup many times, why not use it as extra motivation? Why shy away from it? Why not embrace it as a motivation?
“Because it's not necessary. That will not give more motivation to the team because their motivation is already enough and that can't be more. They want to win a cup and they have an opportunity. They want to set a crown on the season and so what more do you need? What is more motivation?”
When you beat City in January, there was a lot of controversy over the equaliser scored by Bruno Fernandes. Manchester City were obviously unhappy about that. The goal stood. Do you feel that you need to win on Saturday to almost prove that that wasn't down to luck, that victory over City?
“I wouldn't explain it in that way because I also seen the xG from that game and it was really our side.”
So you don’t feel there was any fortune at all with that decision?
“No, I don't think so. I say when you see the xG in that game it was absolutely on our side.”
And what for you, in your opinion, was the key to beating Manchester City because you made some tactical changes then didn't you? You brought Fred into the starting line-up? What was the key for you to beating them?
“There are many. All big games are always decided by details but there's a plan and the construction of the plan is based on many facts. And you can’t point out one that is a major decision and probably a detail like that, that moment in the game. Moments in games decide top games.”
How much did you learn from that 6-3 earlier in the season? Because you said afterwards that Manchester City taught you a footballing lesson and you took the lesson. What did you learn from that defeat?
“That is, I think you can't say learn. You learn always and you learn from that defeat. You learn from the win as well. And but I can't say afterwards that I learned something from that game. So we won the second game. I don't think so.”
Well, after the two games against City this season have created two very different results of 6-3 and the 2-1. What do you think the biggest difference between those two games was? Was it a mentality thing for your players? Was it a tactical thing? How can you go from losing a game 6-3 to then winning one the way you did, 2-1?
“The belief. In the Etihad, we didn't show belief. And I think at Old Trafford, we were determined to win this game from the first moment on.”
Do you see the same belief now ahead of Saturday?
“It's up to us that we show the same belief.”
It’s United's 62nd match of the season. Obviously, you've had to deal with a lot off the pitch as well. And obviously the demands of Manchester United. How have you found your first season? How draining has it been, or have you enjoyed that challenge?
“Well, I enjoyed it definitely. And I think it was a great journey this season, of course. And you always enjoy more when you see the progress of your team. If you see a team is developing, if you see individuals developing and if you work in togetherness [it’s great]. All can confirm this, all three things: like team, the individuals and also the way we work together in this club, it's very good. So for me, so far it's a great season.”
A lot of matches in finals recently have gone some extra time the match last night did as well [Europa League final]. How much of that is a factor in the starting line-up or will it just be a case of putting your best team out from the get-go?
“It's true. Extra time and our team is fit that [we] showed the fitness outputs. So that gives us confidence.”
submitted by nearly_headless_nic to reddevils [link] [comments]
Full Transcript - every word from Press Conference Part 2
Just with Anthony Martial, the club said it was a muscular tear. Is that going to be a long recovery time for him, or will he be fit for pre-season?“Yeah, it's going to be a long one, but how long? We don't know. We have to do more assessments.”
And just looking ahead to the game on Saturday. It's going to be difficult for you with selections. There are going to be certain players who are going to be disappointed. When will you have those conversations? Will you have those conversations with players who will have to be left out of the squad for Saturday?
“Yes, of course. There will be always be disappointed [players], about the start XI [and] for the bench. But I think it's a normal process in Manchester United and we have to deal with it. The players have to deal with it, the squad have to deal with it. And so I make the choices.”
Having worked with Pep [Guardiola] when you were at Bayern Munich 2, what insight can you give us that makes him so special?
“Oh, I don't tell. Obviously, we have seen what he's doing. He is doing a brilliant job and what he can do. He can construct teams, not only in winning teams, but also he's winning in a very attractive way. So that's why I think we all admire him.”
Apart from the first time that this club won the European Cup in 1968, the Treble season of 1999 is probably the one thing that Manchester United supporters hold as their own above anything else, which nobody else has ever done it. So I know that you try and play it down, but if you were to stop Manchester City doing that on Saturday, your supporters will sing about this weekend for the next 50 years. Do you have any real appreciation of what that really means?
“Yes, I know. I know what the thinking is from the [supporters]. But what we want is to restore Manchester United by winning trophies. So on Saturday, we have the opportunity to win a trophy, and we don't want to be distracted by anything. And yeah, if it's important for the fans, then it's important for us. So we will give everything to win the cup.”
Manchester United have won the FA Cup many times, why not use it as extra motivation? Why shy away from it? Why not embrace it as a motivation?
“Because it's not necessary. That will not give more motivation to the team because their motivation is already enough and that can't be more. They want to win a cup and they have an opportunity. They want to set a crown on the season and so what more do you need? What is more motivation?”
When you beat City in January, there was a lot of controversy over the equaliser scored by Bruno Fernandes. Manchester City were obviously unhappy about that. The goal stood. Do you feel that you need to win on Saturday to almost prove that that wasn't down to luck, that victory over City?
“I wouldn't explain it in that way because I also seen the xG from that game and it was really our side.”
So you don’t feel there was any fortune at all with that decision?
“No, I don't think so. I say when you see the xG in that game it was absolutely on our side.”
And what for you, in your opinion, was the key to beating Manchester City because you made some tactical changes then didn't you? You brought Fred into the starting line-up? What was the key for you to beating them?
“There are many. All big games are always decided by details but there's a plan and the construction of the plan is based on many facts. And you can’t point out one that is a major decision and probably a detail like that, that moment in the game. Moments in games decide top games.”
How much did you learn from that 6-3 earlier in the season? Because you said afterwards that Manchester City taught you a footballing lesson and you took the lesson. What did you learn from that defeat?
“That is, I think you can't say learn. You learn always and you learn from that defeat. You learn from the win as well. And but I can't say afterwards that I learned something from that game. So we won the second game. I don't think so.”
Well, after the two games against City this season have created two very different results of 6-3 and the 2-1. What do you think the biggest difference between those two games was? Was it a mentality thing for your players? Was it a tactical thing? How can you go from losing a game 6-3 to then winning one the way you did, 2-1?
“The belief. In the Etihad, we didn't show belief. And I think at Old Trafford, we were determined to win this game from the first moment on.”
Do you see the same belief now ahead of Saturday?
“It's up to us that we show the same belief.”
It’s United's 62nd match of the season. Obviously, you've had to deal with a lot off the pitch as well. And obviously the demands of Manchester United. How have you found your first season? How draining has it been, or have you enjoyed that challenge?
“Well, I enjoyed it definitely. And I think it was a great journey this season, of course. And you always enjoy more when you see the progress of your team. If you see a team is developing, if you see individuals developing and if you work in togetherness [it’s great]. All can confirm this, all three things: like team, the individuals and also the way we work together in this club, it's very good. So for me, so far it's a great season.”
A lot of matches in finals recently have gone some extra time the match last night did as well [Europa League final]. How much of that is a factor in the starting line-up or will it just be a case of putting your best team out from the get-go?
“It's true. Extra time and our team is fit that [we] showed the fitness outputs. So that gives us confidence.”
2023.06.02 23:49 AkaneaTenryu [GILGAMESH] [FC] [LFM] [CASUAL] Gobbiebag Treasures looking to make friends!
Check out our Recruitment video ----- https://youtu.be/A\_XtiPdNt-s
Who we are:
We’re a ragtag group of people who all come from a variety of backgrounds & have a variety of careers, family lives, and hobbies! Having fun and being casual/social is what we pride ourselves for and that’s just how we play. Some of us have met through FF14 and may or may not have previous MMO experience.
What we’re about:
We enjoy running old content whether it’s for mounts, achievements, titles, or just for clears. We’re currently actively running Treasure Maps every Friday and EX Mount farms on Saturdays! We have other events we do as well, such as Glam contests, Hide & Seek, and Blue Mage spell farms/leveling. We love helping new and returning players catch up and get to the good stuff! When someone gets that mount that’s been eluding them or just having some other nice people to help speed along your duty finder queues, that’s what we enjoy! We’re also couple friendly, with a lot of couples regularly playing together! We have a few groups waiting for the next Savage Tier, but that is not a focus of the FC as a whole. ^^b Furthermore, we don’t always want to play FF14 do we?! Well some do. The point is we also play other games! Xbox, PS5, Switch, and PC friendly! Always looking for more ways to interact with one another! Golf With Friends, Phasmophobia, Among Us, 7 Days to Die, and Mario Kart are some games we play on the side!
FC Features:
The FC currently has a Medium sized house located in the 3rd Ward of The Mists, plot 60. Right on the beach and close to the markets and summoning bells! Several of our members have even purchased their own personal housing down the street from the main FC! We are Rank 30 and have 4 submarines. We have gardens available for use (upon request) and of course chocobo stables for your favorite chickens! We supply glamour prisms, dyes, chocobo foddedye as well to our members if needed. We will also craft gear for you on request if you need help gearing up a job or just trying to reach that next ilevel for a dungeon! We have FC buffs up 24/7 and they are usually EXP and Teleport Rates. We always have the FC decked out in the most recent holiday decorations and always looking for feedback and assistance/recommendations to how the house should look and be decorated.
What we’re looking for:
We love meeting new people and have met some great people throughout our history, going back to 2013 when we formed. We would like to find active players to populate our FC and Discord with. With 6.4 right around the corner, there is a lull in activity, so we're hoping for some new social members! Life happens and people have to take breaks., that’s fine, we all have our responsibilities. Nobody will be kicked because of life! We’re most active during evenings and late nights during the week. Our weekly events start at 5pm PST / 8pm EST and usually run around 2 hours. FC members come from all time zones, PST, EST, even a few in Europe and Japan! Also looking for those who want to help build a more fun and social community! Anyone interested in helping organise events and prizes, please apply and drop me a message!
How to apply:
Firstly, you do it in game! If you see a member with the tag, just apply through them! You could also check the Party Finder (occasionally) and Fellowship Finder. Our Fellowship is reposted frequently, but remember, we’re a Gilgamesh Free Company! Lots of love from other servers, but you can’t join unless you’re on Gilgamesh! :D We can still be friends though, no worries! You could also find one of our officers:
Akanea Tenryu
Exodius King
Vivi Zerusa
Finally, you can drop me a message through Reddit or via Discord if you’re checking this out at work or while doing something else away from game! My tag on there is Akanea#9251 or look for Omega#7610. Hope to hear from everyone soon! :D
submitted by AkaneaTenryu to FFXIVRECRUITMENT [link] [comments]
Who we are:
We’re a ragtag group of people who all come from a variety of backgrounds & have a variety of careers, family lives, and hobbies! Having fun and being casual/social is what we pride ourselves for and that’s just how we play. Some of us have met through FF14 and may or may not have previous MMO experience.
What we’re about:
We enjoy running old content whether it’s for mounts, achievements, titles, or just for clears. We’re currently actively running Treasure Maps every Friday and EX Mount farms on Saturdays! We have other events we do as well, such as Glam contests, Hide & Seek, and Blue Mage spell farms/leveling. We love helping new and returning players catch up and get to the good stuff! When someone gets that mount that’s been eluding them or just having some other nice people to help speed along your duty finder queues, that’s what we enjoy! We’re also couple friendly, with a lot of couples regularly playing together! We have a few groups waiting for the next Savage Tier, but that is not a focus of the FC as a whole. ^^b Furthermore, we don’t always want to play FF14 do we?! Well some do. The point is we also play other games! Xbox, PS5, Switch, and PC friendly! Always looking for more ways to interact with one another! Golf With Friends, Phasmophobia, Among Us, 7 Days to Die, and Mario Kart are some games we play on the side!
FC Features:
The FC currently has a Medium sized house located in the 3rd Ward of The Mists, plot 60. Right on the beach and close to the markets and summoning bells! Several of our members have even purchased their own personal housing down the street from the main FC! We are Rank 30 and have 4 submarines. We have gardens available for use (upon request) and of course chocobo stables for your favorite chickens! We supply glamour prisms, dyes, chocobo foddedye as well to our members if needed. We will also craft gear for you on request if you need help gearing up a job or just trying to reach that next ilevel for a dungeon! We have FC buffs up 24/7 and they are usually EXP and Teleport Rates. We always have the FC decked out in the most recent holiday decorations and always looking for feedback and assistance/recommendations to how the house should look and be decorated.
What we’re looking for:
We love meeting new people and have met some great people throughout our history, going back to 2013 when we formed. We would like to find active players to populate our FC and Discord with. With 6.4 right around the corner, there is a lull in activity, so we're hoping for some new social members! Life happens and people have to take breaks., that’s fine, we all have our responsibilities. Nobody will be kicked because of life! We’re most active during evenings and late nights during the week. Our weekly events start at 5pm PST / 8pm EST and usually run around 2 hours. FC members come from all time zones, PST, EST, even a few in Europe and Japan! Also looking for those who want to help build a more fun and social community! Anyone interested in helping organise events and prizes, please apply and drop me a message!
How to apply:
Firstly, you do it in game! If you see a member with the
Akanea Tenryu
Exodius King
Vivi Zerusa
Finally, you can drop me a message through Reddit or via Discord if you’re checking this out at work or while doing something else away from game! My tag on there is Akanea#9251 or look for Omega#7610. Hope to hear from everyone soon! :D
2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
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But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
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May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
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Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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